Motion-blurred skater in a St. Louis Blues sweater

Breakdown · STL at NYI

Blues steal one from the Islanders against the run of play

FinalSat, Nov 22

STLSt. Louis Blues2 NYINew York Islanders1

The verdict · stolen

The Blues stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.90–4.10 and won anyway.

STL 2 · NYI 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:13 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

St. Louis won 2–1 despite losing the expected-goals battle 4.10 to 2.90. The Islanders controlled 59 percent of xG — this was a theft.

J. Binnington did the stealing. The goalie stopped all nine high-danger chances he faced while saving 3.10 goals above expected. I. Sorokin made 20 of 22 saves (0.909 SV%), but the Islanders squandered their advantage: they underperformed their xG by 3.10 goals and converted zero of nine high-danger chances.

The Islanders held 58 percent of shot attempts and crashed the net relentlessly, producing four rebound opportunities and burying one. None of it mattered. Anders Lee's backhander from the doorstep at 16:40 of the third period found the net, but by then the Blues had seized control with only two dangerous scoring chances.

New York generated volume; St. Louis converted what it needed. The Islanders' inability to finish elite looks, despite owning the run of play, left them empty-handed against a team that defended its chances ruthlessly.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 22

STL

NYI

Blues steal one from the Islanders against the run of play

Chances 2.9 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

STL

2.90

NYI

4.10

41% of the chances59%

The board read STL 2, NYI 1. The chances read STL 2.9, NYI 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

STL

−0.9

goals above expected

STL2.90 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI4.10 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Islanders left 3.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 00:42STLB. Schenn1–0
P2 17:51STLP. Suter2–0
P3 16:40NYIA. LeePP2–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

STL

37 shots

Final

82 shots

NYI

45 shots

STL NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

STLNYI

0 / 2

0.49 xG

High danger

0 / 9

1.96 xG

1 / 17

1.89 xG

Medium

1 / 14

1.52 xG

1 / 33

0.52 xG

Low

0 / 38

0.63 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 9 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Binnington

+3.1

STL · 29/30

B+

I. Sorokin

+0.9

NYI · 20/22

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Blues steal one from the Islanders against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–6

00:42STLB. Schenn(P. Buchnevich, D. Dvorsky)1–0

2ndshots 11–11

17:51STLP. Suter(D. Holloway, J. Kyrou)2–0

3rdshots 5–13

16:40NYIA. Leepower play(K. Palmieri, M. Barzal)2–1

score reads STL–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.90

STL chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.9

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.022

STL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.0%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.90Expected goals4.10

NYI 59% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal30

2High-danger chances9

52All attempts (Corsi)61

Adjusted for score: STL 41% · NYI 59%

Faceoffs · NYI won75%off50%neu29%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

STL0 / 2 · 0.49 xG

NYI0 / 9 · 1.96 xG

Medium dangermid-range

STL1 / 17 · 1.89 xG

NYI1 / 14 · 1.52 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

STL1 / 33 · 0.52 xG

NYI0 / 38 · 0.63 xG

NYI went 0-for-9 from high danger on 1.96 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

STL

2 G · 2.90 xG · -0.9

NYI

1 G · 4.10 xG · -3.1

012345

STL finished -0.9 against expected, NYI -3.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

STL

WRIST0/21

SLAP0/3

TIP IN0/4

SNAP1/4

DEFLECTED0/2

BACKHAND1/2

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/15

NYI

WRIST0/22

SLAP0/8

TIP IN0/6

SNAP0/3

DEFLECTED0/3

BACKHAND1/3

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/16

STL

NYI

Off the rush

1 G on 27

2.39 xG

0 G on 33

2.79 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 2

0.26 xG

1 G on 4

0.77 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 0-for-21, NYI 0-for-22.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Binnington

STL · 29/30 · .967

+3.1

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/92.0+2.0

Medium1/141.5+0.5

Low0/380.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Sorokin

NYI · 20/22 · .909

+0.9

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.5+0.5

Medium1/171.9+0.9

Low1/330.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

STL

37 shots

Final

82 shots

NYI

45 shots

STL NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Barzal

#13 · C · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:30 on ice

P. Buchnevich

#89 · L · STL

0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 18:52 on ice

K. Palmieri

#21 · C · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:37 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Nov 22

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:12 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects 2.5 goals for St. Louis and 2.6 for New York, placing the Islanders at 51% win probability. Pick 'em doesn't get tighter than this.

The Islanders have shown sharper form lately, running 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. The Blues, meanwhile, are trending negative: minus-8 goal differential over the same span. At 5v5, the gap narrows. St. Louis holds a 49.0% expected goals share to New York's 48.0%, though the Islanders edge the Blues 49.0% to 48.0% in Corsi percentage. The Blues' PDO sits at 1.000, slightly higher than New York's 0.993—suggesting neither team is running especially hot right now.

Both goaltenders are on back-to-back games, which could prompt a backup appearance or reveal fatigue in the starter. I. Sorokin and J. Hofer will warrant watching heading into puck drop.

Offensively, the Blues lean on Jimmy Snuggerud, who carries 0.86 expected goals per 60 minutes and has scored 15 goals with 2 high-danger tallies this season at an 11.9% clip. Dylan Holloway runs nearly parallel at 0.82 xG/60 with 13 goals, though his 10.8% shooting rate suggests variance from expected output. For the Islanders, Anders Lee generates 1.20 xG/60, the team's highest rate, yet he has converted only 9 goals. Bo Horvat proves more prolific with 18 goals and 3 high-danger marks, balancing a lower 0.87 xG/60 with elite 12.8% finishing.

The defensive weak links are worth tracking: Snuggerud on the Blues' end and Alexander Romanov for New York. With neither team generating high-danger or rebound goals at a notable rate, conversion efficiency on the chances that do materialize will likely decide this.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 51%

51%

NYI

Model favorite

49%

51%

STL50NYI

NYI by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 2.5–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

STL← edge

edge →NYI

49.0%48.0%

48.0%49.0%

2.342.48

2.402.69

2.001.78

2.121.94

1.0000.993

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.000 vs 0.993) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

STL

3-3-4

-8 GD · 1d rest

NYI

7-2-1

+8 GD · 1d rest

1.000

STL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

I. Sorokin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Hofer is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
The Blues are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

STL

Expected in goal

J. Hofer

back-to-back.893 last start

Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

back-to-back1.000 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

STL

Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A

0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh

Dylan Holloway13G 24A

0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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