The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Toronto didn't register a single high-danger chance and scored twice anyway. That's the starkest measure of Montreal's dominance—not the 5-2 final, but the fact that the Maple Leafs had to manufacture goals from nowhere while the Canadiens were suffocating quality across the board.
Montreal's underlying numbers explain why. The Canadiens held 73% of expected goals at 5v5 (4.02 to 1.51), controlled 53% of shot attempts (29 to 26), and turned the rush into an advantage: three goals on 31 chances versus Toronto's two on 22. The Canadiens' xG per shot (0.066) nearly tripled Toronto's (0.027)—they didn't just generate more chances, they generated smarter ones.
Josh Anderson's snap shot from the point at 17:50 in the third period was the turning point.
Montreal overperformed their expected goals by 0.98, but goaltending tells the real story. D. Hildeby was perfect in limited time (3 for 3, 1.000 SV%), then J. Woll took over and stopped 21 of 25 (0.840 SV%). Hildeby saved 4.0 goals above expected—a performance that should have buried Toronto's chances entirely. Montreal's J. Dobes, by contrast, allowed exactly what the numbers predicted: 24 saves on 26 shots (0.923 SV%).
Toronto's only argument: they generated higher-quality chances than their shot total suggested. A small consolation when Montreal was so much more ruthless with everything that followed.
Three Stars
- #8 M. Matheson (MTL) — 2A in 23:26
- #53 N. Dobson (MTL) — 2G in 20:44
- #88 W. Nylander (TOR) — 1G, 1A in 19:53