The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.02–3.15 and won anyway.
The Wild stole this one. Winnipeg controlled 61% of expected goals at 5v5 and outshot Minnesota 32–30, yet left with nothing. This was variance at its most merciless.
The Jets dominated the shot chart but squandered it. They had the better looks—5 high-danger chances to Minnesota's 2—and converted exactly zero. Minnesota, meanwhile, scored on low-danger spots and capitalized ruthlessly off the rush: 3 goals on just 18 rush attempts.
Minnesota's goaltending was the difference. J. Wallstedt stopped 32 of 32 shots, outperforming his xG model by 3.15 goals. He was a wall on high-danger chances, holding a 1.000 save percentage there. E. Comrie (WPG) faced 30 shots and allowed 3, underperforming his xG by 0.98 goals. The gap between them was the entire game.
Winnipeg's inability to finish was stunning. At 5v5, they generated a 3.15–2.02 xG advantage (61–39 split) and shot 52% of the attempts, yet got shut out. The Wild generated higher-quality looks than their shot total suggests. They scored 2 goals from low-danger areas—Comrie should have had those—and were lethal on the transition. One goal came from Kirill Kaprizov's slot wrist shot in the third period.
The Jets will replay this. They owned the game's flow and chance quality. They just met a goalie who didn't miss.
