Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater
Breakdown · SEA at NYI

Islanders shut out the Kraken, 1-0

The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

SEA 0 · NYI 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:23 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders won a game they dominated but did not deserve to win in regulation. New York held 66% of expected goals (4.54–2.39) and 64% of shot attempts (34–19), yet needed a shootout to avoid leaving empty-handed.

The culprit was finishing. The Islanders went 0-for-7 on high-danger chances—the kind of shooting night that doesn't repeat. With the volume of quality looks they generated, that's not bad luck; it's a wasteful performance.

J. Daccord kept Seattle alive. He made all 34 saves and stopped 4.54 goals above expected—a massive overperformance that turned a defeat into a shootout. That level of goaltending theft doesn't happen often.

The Islanders crashed the net effectively, generating 5 rebound opportunities without converting any. D. Rittich matched the resistance in goal, allowing nothing on 19 shots and saving 2.39 goals above expected. His task was lighter, but his execution was equally clean.

Kyle Palmieri ended it in the shootout with a snap shot from the slot—the only goal either team managed.

New York's dominance in underlying metrics should have produced a comfortable win. Instead, elite goaltending from Daccord and impotent finishing from the Islanders turned possession into a shootout. That won't hold up if the Islanders encounter another hot goalie.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Nov 23
SEA
0
NYI
1

Islanders shut out the Kraken, 1-0

Chances 2.4 – 4.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
SEA
2.39
NYI
4.54
34% of the chances66%

The board read SEA 0, NYI 1. The chances read SEA 2.4, NYI 4.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYI
−3.5
goals above expected
NYI4.54 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored
SEA2.39 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kraken left 2.4 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. SO 00:00SEAF. GaudreauPP0–0
  2. SO 00:00NYIB. HorvatPP0–0
  3. SO 00:00NYIK. PalmieriPP0–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
SEA
39 shots
1
Final
98 shots
NYI
59 shots
2
SEA attackNYI attack
SEA NYI Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

39
shots · 1 in
59
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
SEANYI
0 / 3
0.68 xG
High danger
0 / 7
1.73 xG
0 / 9
1.11 xG
Medium
0 / 20
2.12 xG
0 / 39
0.60 xG
Low
0 / 54
0.69 xG

The Kraken went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Daccord
+4.5
SEA · 34/34
A
D. Rittich
+2.4
NYI · 19/19
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Islanders shut out the Kraken, 1-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 4–11no goals
    2ndshots 6–9no goals
      3rdshots 8–11no goals
        OTshots 1–3no goals
          SO
          1. 00:00SEAF. Gaudreaupower play0–0
          2. 00:00NYIB. Horvatpower play0–0
          3. 00:00NYIK. Palmieripower play0–0

          score reads SEA–NYI

          Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
          Process vs result

          The numbers

          XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
          4.54
          NYI chances
          Goals their shots were worth
          −3.5
          Finishing
          Goals below what those chances were worth
          1.000
          NYI puck luck
          About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
          61.4%
          Shot attempts
          Over half — they had the puck more
          Split by club

          Who controlled the game

          2.39Expected goals4.54
          NYI 66% of the chance quality
          19Shots on goal34
          3High-danger chances7
          51All attempts (Corsi)81
          Adjusted for score: SEA 39% · NYI 61%
          Faceoffs · NYI won71%off38%neu42%def
          Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
          How the game was won

          The danger ladder

          shotsgoalsexpected
          High dangerslot & crease
          SEA0 / 3 · 0.68 xG
          NYI0 / 7 · 1.73 xG
          Medium dangermid-range
          SEA0 / 9 · 1.11 xG
          NYI0 / 20 · 2.12 xG
          Low dangerperimeter & point
          SEA0 / 39 · 0.60 xG
          NYI0 / 54 · 0.69 xG

          NYI went 0-for-20 from medium danger on 2.12 expected goals — 2.1 left on the table.

          Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
          The luck layer

          Finishing vs expected

          expectedactual
          SEA
          0 G · 2.39 xG · -2.4
          NYI
          1 G · 4.54 xG · -3.5
          012345

          SEA finished -2.4 against expected, NYI -3.5.

          Source · Backcheck xG model
          Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
          What they shot — and what went in

          Shot diet

          goalsshots
          SEA
          SNAP0/22
          WRIST0/5
          SLAP0/3
          BACKHAND0/2
          TIP IN0/2
          WRAP AROUND0/1
          OTHER0/16
          NYI
          SNAP0/25
          WRIST0/15
          SLAP0/8
          BACKHAND0/5
          TIP IN0/2
          WRAP AROUND0/0
          OTHER0/26
          SEA
          NYI
          Off the rush
          0 G on 16
          1.17 xG
          0 G on 34
          3.22 xG
          Off rebounds
          0 G on 3
          0.24 xG
          0 G on 5
          0.88 xG

          Snap shots carried the volume: SEA went 0-for-22, NYI 0-for-25.

          Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
          New to these numbers?

          Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

          The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

          xG
          Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
          HD
          High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
          Corsi
          Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
          Adj.
          Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
          GSAx
          Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
          PDO
          Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
          Shot by shot

          In the net

          Graded on goals saved above expected
          J. Daccord
          SEA · 34/34 · 1.000
          +4.5
          saved above expected
          A+
          the night
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          High danger0/71.7+1.7
          Medium0/202.1+2.1
          Low0/540.7+0.7

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          D. Rittich
          NYI · 19/19 · 1.000
          +2.4
          saved above expected
          A
          the night
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          High danger0/30.7+0.7
          Medium0/91.1+1.1
          Low0/390.6+0.6

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          98 shots · press play to watch the game back

          Where the shots came from

          NHL play-by-play coordinates
          SEA
          39 shots
          1
          Final
          98 shots
          NYI
          59 shots
          2
          SEA attackNYI attack
          SEA NYI Goal

          Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

          Each club shoots toward its own end — SEA left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

          Ranked from the box score

          Three stars

          Points first
          Three stars · computed, not voted
          M. Schaefer
          #48 · D · NYI
          0 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 27:23 on ice
          A. Pelech
          #3 · D · NYI
          0 G · 0 A · 0 SOG · 26:14 on ice
          B. Montour
          #62 · D · SEA
          0 G · 0 A · 0 SOG · 24:37 on ice
          Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
          What the model said beforehand

          Before the game

          Written Sun, Nov 23
          Open the pre-game read
          Written from the numbers

          The read

          Edited for clarity
          ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:22 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

          The model projects a SEA 2.4 - 2.6 NYI game with the Islanders at 54% win probability. This is essentially a pick'em.

          The numbers back that tightness. Seattle trails in expected goals (46.0% xG%), meaning they generate fewer quality chances than Islanders territory produces. They're also outshot on shot attempts (45.0% Corsi%), suggesting New York controls play. Yet Seattle's PDO sits at 1.011 — meaning they've converted their chances at a higher clip than average — while New York's PDO is 0.993, a slight regression. That edge in efficiency partly offsets their possession disadvantage.

          New York's territorial advantage shows in a Corsi rate of 49.0%, the closest thing to a true edge either team can claim here.

          Players to Watch

          Shane Wright (SEA): 0.77 xG/60, 8G 10A, 4 HD goals, 10.4% shooting Berkly Catton (SEA): 0.68 xG/60, 6G 8A, 5 HD goals, 8.8% shooting Anders Lee (NYI): 1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting Bo Horvat (NYI): 0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting

          Wright generates the most dangerous scoring opportunities at 0.77 expected goals per 60 minutes, converting at an above-average 10.4% on high-danger chances. Catton produces similarly from the wing at 0.68 xG/60, with 5 high-danger goals at 8.8% shooting. Anders Lee leads league scoring chances at 1.20 xG/60 with a pass-first game (9G, 20A), though his 6.4% shooting rate flags regression risk. Bo Horvat supplies secondary scoring with an elite 12.8% conversion rate on his high-danger looks.

          The defensive liability for Seattle is Chandler Stephenson; New York's equivalent is Alexander Romanov.

          This remains a flip, the Islanders' territorial edge providing just enough advantage to justify their 54% model projection.

          What the model said beforehand

          The model's lean

          NYI 54%
          53%
          NYI
          Model favorite
          47%
          53%
          SEA50NYI

          NYI by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SEA 2.4–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

          Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
          Season rates · 5v5

          Tale of the tape

          NHL stats API · our xG
          SEA← edge
          edge →NYI
          46.0%48.0%
          45.0%49.0%
          2.132.48
          2.512.69
          1.871.78
          1.951.94
          1.0110.993

          NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.011 vs 0.993) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

          Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
          Form · Last 10
          SEA
          5-3-2
          -1 GD · 2d rest
          NYI
          6-3-1
          +6 GD · 1d rest
          1.011
          SEA PDO
          Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
          0.993
          NYI PDO
          Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
          What decides it

          Keys to the game

          Where the edges live
          • The Islanders drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
          Things to watch
          • The Islanders drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
          Computed danger · scouting

          Players to watch

          NHL stats API · our xG
          SEA
          Shane Wright8G 10A
          0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
          Berkly Catton6G 8A
          0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
          NYI
          Anders Lee9G 20A
          1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
          Bo Horvat18G 10A
          0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
          Keep going

          Where to next