The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado's 1-0 victory understated their dominance. They controlled 63% of 5v5 expected goals (3.03 to 1.77), marking a decisive advantage in shot quality that the scoreline didn't fully reflect.
The Avalanche dominated the chances. They generated four high-danger opportunities to Chicago's one, and registered 0.054 xG per shot compared to Chicago's 0.033—a gap that matters when games are decided by margins this thin. Colorado's offensive execution faltered, though, underperforming their xG by 2.03 goals.
Chicago relied on volume rather than quality, holding 46% of shot attempts (22 to Colorado's 26) but creating only 1.77 xG. They crashed the net effectively, generating three rebound chances, but converted none. The underperformance was steeper: Chicago left 1.77 goals on the table.
Cale Makar ended the stalemate with a wrist shot from the high slot at 18:21 of the second period. That single goal proved decisive despite Colorado's relative profligacy.
The goaltending told a different story: both starters were exceptional. S. Wedgewood stopped all 22 shots for a perfect 1.000 SV%, performing 1.77 goals above expected. S. Knight faced the far more difficult task, allowing one on 26 shots (0.962 SV%), yet still exceeded expectations by 2.03 goals. In a low-scoring game where chances scattered unevenly, both goalies kept the margin narrow.
Colorado's control of shot quality—high-danger chances and xG per attempt—should have produced a wider margin. Instead, they escaped with a one-goal win against a team that had no answer for their sustained pressure.
