Motion-blurred skater in a San Jose Sharks sweater

Breakdown · BOS at SJS

Y. Askarov stands tall as the Sharks edge the Bruins

FinalSun, Nov 23

The verdict · coin flip

The Sharks won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

BOS 1 · SJS 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:26 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Askarov was the difference. The Bruins held a slight expected-goals edge (3.99 vs 3.82) but underperformed it by 2.99 goals—squandering quality chances while Askarov turned back 34 of 35 shots, outperforming his expected output by the same margin.

San Jose's attack was narrower but sharper. Though the Sharks held 47% of shot attempts (31–35 on goal), they generated more dangerous looks per shot (0.076 xG vs 0.057). The Bruins built more high-danger opportunities (7 vs 6) and crashed the net with six rebound chances, yet couldn't convert.

Boston created the chances but couldn't convert. J. Swayman kept the Bruins within reach with a 0.933 save percentage, outperforming his expected output by 1.82 goals, yet Askarov was simply better.

The turning point came at 18:53 of the first period when Collin Graf's wrist shot from a sharp angle beat Swayman and set the tone for an evening where the Bruins controlled territory but couldn't convert chances.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 23

BOS

SJS

Y. Askarov stands tall as the Sharks edge the Bruins

Chances 4.0 – 3.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Sharks took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

BOS

3.99

SJS

3.82

51% of the chances49%

The board read BOS 1, SJS 3. The chances read BOS 4.0, SJS 3.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

SJS

−0.8

goals above expected

SJS3.82 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

BOS3.99 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Bruins left 3.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 15:53SJSS. Mukhamadullin0–1
P2 11:45SJSM. CelebriniPP0–2
P3 10:02BOSM. Geekie1–2
P3 18:53SJSC. GrafEN1–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

BOS

54 shots

Final

94 shots

SJS

40 shots

BOS SJS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

BOSSJS

1 / 7

1.72 xG

High danger

1 / 6

2.03 xG

0 / 13

1.44 xG

Medium

1 / 10

1.13 xG

0 / 50

0.84 xG

Low

1 / 34

0.66 xG

High-danger looks: BOS 1 of 7, SJS 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

Y. Askarov

+3.0

SJS · 34/35

J. Swayman

+1.8

BOS · 28/30

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Y. Askarov stands tall as the Sharks edge the Bruins

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–12

15:53SJSS. Mukhamadullin(M. Ferraro, B. Goodrow)0–1

2ndshots 15–11

11:45SJSM. Celebrinipower play(D. Orlov, T. Toffoli)0–2

3rdshots 10–8

10:02BOSM. Geekie(D. Pastrnak, H. Jokiharju)1–2
18:53SJSC. Grafempty net(W. Eklund, M. Celebrini)1–3

score reads BOS–SJS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.82

SJS chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.8

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.046

SJS puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

41.7%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.99Expected goals3.82

BOS 51% of the chance quality

35Shots on goal31

7High-danger chances6

70All attempts (Corsi)50

Adjusted for score: BOS 62% · SJS 38%

Faceoffs · SJS won55%off40%neu52%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

BOS1 / 7 · 1.72 xG

SJS1 / 6 · 2.03 xG

Medium dangermid-range

BOS0 / 13 · 1.44 xG

SJS1 / 10 · 1.13 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

BOS0 / 50 · 0.84 xG

SJS1 / 34 · 0.66 xG

BOS went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.44 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

BOS

1 G · 3.99 xG · -3.0

SJS

3 G · 3.82 xG · -0.8

012345

BOS finished -3.0 against expected, SJS -0.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

BOS

WRIST1/32

SLAP0/17

SNAP0/3

TIP IN0/2

BACKHAND0/0

OTHER0/16

SJS

WRIST2/30

SLAP0/4

SNAP1/3

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/2

OTHER0/10

BOS

SJS

Off the rush

1 G on 25

1.89 xG

1 G on 21

1.90 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 6

1.37 xG

0 G on 1

0.15 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 1-for-32, SJS 2-for-30.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Swayman

BOS · 28/30 · .933

+1.8

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/62.0+1.0

Medium1/101.1+0.1

Low1/340.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Y. Askarov

SJS · 34/35 · .971

+3.0

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.7+0.7

Medium0/131.4+1.4

Low0/500.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

94 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

BOS

54 shots

Final

94 shots

SJS

40 shots

BOS SJS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, SJS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Celebrini

#71 · C · SJS

1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 19:32 on ice · +2

M. Ferraro

#38 · D · SJS

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:05 on ice · +1

D. Pastrnak

#88 · R · BOS

0 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 21:29 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Nov 23

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:24 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game favoring San Jose, which translates to 52% win probability for the Sharks—essentially a toss-up.

The underlying metrics justify the uncertainty. Boston's 47.0% expected goals share trails San Jose's 48.0%, but the Bruins edge in shot metrics: 49.0% Corsi% to the Sharks' 47.0%. Boston's PDO of 1.023 signals unsustainable luck; regression risk is real. San Jose sits at a healthier 0.998.

J. Swayman faces a back-to-back and could see a backup start or a tired starter—either scenario matters in a contest this narrow.

Viktor Arvidsson carries Boston's offensive weight at 1.04 expected goals per 60 minutes and 18 goals. His 2 high-danger goals and 13.0% shooting rate reveal a finisher capitalizing at an elite rate. Tanner Jeannot (0.75 xG/60, 6 goals, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shot percentage) provides secondary punch, though at lower volume. Elias Lindholm anchors Boston's defensive weakness.

San Jose's attack hinges on availability. Pavol Regenda led the team in expected goals per 60 at 1.10 with a 16.1% shooting rate across 5 goals, but is marked inactive and likely unavailable. Igor Chernyshov (0.91 xG/60, 6 goals, 1 HD goal, 15.0% shooting) becomes the primary threat—he's also San Jose's defensive liability.

Neither team generates second-chance opportunities: both sit at 0% rebound goal rates and 0% high-danger goal rates.

San Jose's edge is real but slim. A 52% win probability is not confidence; it's an admission that this game could go either way.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

SJS 52%

52%

SJS

Model favorite

48%

52%

BOS50SJS

SJS by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.6 SJS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS← edge

edge →SJS

47.0%48.0%

49.0%47.0%

2.392.33

2.672.56

2.221.99

1.822.32

1.0230.998

BOS holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.023 vs 0.998) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

BOS

7-3-0

+4 GD · 1d rest

SJS

7-2-1

+6 GD · 2d rest

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.998

SJS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

J. Swayman is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Swayman

back-to-back.969 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SJS

Expected in goal

Y. Askarov

2 days rest.912 last start

Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -18.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

SJS

Pavol Regenda5G 1A

1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 16.1% sh

Igor Chernyshov6G 8A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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