Breakdown · STL at NYR

Rangers hold off the Blues

FinalMon, Nov 24

STLSt. Louis Blues2 NYRNew York Rangers3

The verdict · coin flip

The Rangers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

STL 2 · NYR 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:29 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Rangers beat the Blues 3–2 on identical shot counts—21 each—which means New York won by making their chances count more effectively than St. Louis. Expected goals reinforced how tight the game actually was: Rangers 2.48, Blues 2.36, a split suggesting the underlying shot quality favored New York only marginally.

The goaltending gap explained most of it. I. Shesterkin posted a 0.905 SV% (19 saves on 21 shots), while J. Hofer finished at 0.857 SV% with 18 saves, underperforming his expected result by 0.52 goals—the margin that cost St. Louis the win.

But the real separation came from rush play. The Rangers converted 3 of 19 rush attempts; St. Louis converted 2 of 20. That efficiency edge in transition is what carried New York despite the even underlying metrics. Brayden Schenn's doorstep wrist shot in the third made it close, but not close enough.

V. Gavrikov supplied two assists across 26:09, anchoring the Rangers' defense. A. Fox added two assists in 24:00. The Blues got one assist from J. Faulk (24:11).

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 24

STL

NYR

Rangers hold off the Blues

Chances 2.4 – 2.5Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Rangers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

STL

2.36

NYR

2.48

49% of the chances51%

The board read STL 2, NYR 3. The chances read STL 2.4, NYR 2.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+0.5

goals above expected

NYR2.48 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

STL2.36 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 17:36STLD. Holloway1–0
P2 10:06NYRV. Trocheck1–1
P3 00:40NYRA. Lafrenière1–2
P3 08:56NYRA. Edstrom1–3
P3 18:45STLB. SchennPP2–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

STL

31 shots

Final

64 shots

NYR

33 shots

STL NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

STLNYR

1 / 4

0.85 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.28 xG

0 / 9

1.09 xG

Medium

2 / 8

0.78 xG

1 / 38

0.41 xG

Low

0 / 41

0.42 xG

High-danger looks: STL 1 of 4, NYR 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

I. Shesterkin

+0.4

NYR · 19/21

J. Hofer

−0.5

STL · 18/21

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers hold off the Blues

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–9

17:36STLD. Holloway(P. Broberg, C. Parayko)1–0

2ndshots 7–7

10:06NYRV. Trocheck(J. Brodzinski, A. Fox)1–1

3rdshots 9–5

00:40NYRA. Lafrenière(V. Gavrikov, W. Cuylle)1–2
08:56NYRA. Edstrom(V. Gavrikov, A. Fox)1–3
18:45STLB. Schennpower play(P. Buchnevich, J. Faulk)2–3

score reads STL–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.48

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.5

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.016

NYR puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

51.4%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.36Expected goals2.48

NYR 51% of the chance quality

21Shots on goal21

4High-danger chances5

51All attempts (Corsi)54

Adjusted for score: STL 50% · NYR 51%

Faceoffs · NYR won45%off44%neu52%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

STL1 / 4 · 0.85 xG

NYR1 / 5 · 1.28 xG

Medium dangermid-range

STL0 / 9 · 1.09 xG

NYR2 / 8 · 0.78 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

STL1 / 38 · 0.41 xG

NYR0 / 41 · 0.42 xG

NYR went 2-for-8 from medium danger on 0.78 expected goals — 1.2 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

STL

2 G · 2.36 xG · -0.4

NYR

3 G · 2.48 xG · +0.5

01234

STL finished -0.4 against expected, NYR +0.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

STL

WRIST1/15

SNAP1/11

SLAP0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

TIP IN0/2

BACKHAND0/1

OTHER0/20

NYR

WRIST2/18

SNAP0/7

SLAP0/4

DEFLECTED1/2

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/1

OTHER0/21

STL

NYR

Off the rush

2 G on 20

1.77 xG

3 G on 19

1.60 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.44 xG

0 G on 1

0.20 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 1-for-15, NYR 2-for-18. NYR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Hofer

STL · 18/21 · .857

-0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.3+0.3

Medium2/80.8-1.2

Low0/410.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 19/21 · .905

+0.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.8-0.1

Medium0/91.1+1.1

Low1/380.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

64 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

STL

31 shots

Final

64 shots

NYR

33 shots

STL NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

V. Gavrikov

#44 · D · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 26:09 on ice · +2

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 24:00 on ice · +2

J. Faulk

#72 · D · STL

0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 24:11 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Nov 24

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:28 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4–2.5 goal game with the Rangers favored at 51%—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Blues enter with a minus-6 goal differential over their last ten games. Yet the underlying metrics suggest evenness. At five-on-five, the numbers are nearly identical: St. Louis 49.0% xG%, 48.0% Corsi%; New York 48.0% xG%, 49.0% Corsi%.

The Rangers' PDO sits at 1.009 to St. Louis's 1.000, a modest luck advantage that only partly explains the win-probability gap. This is a near-toss-up at process.

Watch the high-end talent. Jimmy Snuggerud (15 goals, 0.86 xG/60, 11.9% shooting) drives St. Louis's attack; Dylan Holloway supplies secondary scoring at 0.82 xG/60 with 13 goals and 10.8% shooting. For New York, Adam Sykora registers 0.91 xG/60 with three goals and 20.0% shooting, while Gabe Perreault has eight goals and two high-danger goals from 0.79 xG/60 with 13.1% shooting.

Goaltending wrinkle: J. Quick faces a back-to-back, creating uncertainty around whether St. Louis starts him or turns to a backup.

Both teams have recorded 0% high-danger and rebound-goal rates; all scoring flows from primary chances and direct play. Defensively, both teams have weak points: Snuggerud for St. Louis, Vincent Iorio for the Rangers. In a margin-of-error game, these matter.

This projection reflects what the data says: two indistinguishable teams separated by the Rangers' modest luck and St. Louis's recent fatigue. Bet accordingly.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYR 51%

51%

NYR

Model favorite

49%

51%

STL50NYR

NYR by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 2.4–2.5 NYR; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

STL← edge

edge →NYR

49.0%48.0%

48.0%49.0%

2.342.26

2.402.40

2.001.88

2.121.90

1.0001.009

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.000 vs 1.009) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

STL

4-2-4

-6 GD · 2d rest

NYR

4-6-0

-3 GD · 1d rest

1.000

STL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

J. Quick is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Blues are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

STL

Expected in goal

J. Binnington

2 days rest.967 last start

Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR

Expected in goal

J. Quick

back-to-back.912 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

STL

Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A

0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh

Dylan Holloway13G 24A

0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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