The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
L. Thompson's performance explained the gap: Washington's 5–1 victory looked decisive but sat atop underlying metrics that suggested a closer contest. Expected goals gave the Capitals barely a 54–46 edge (3.44–2.91), yet the final margin was four.
The Capitals dominated shot volume, controlling 57% of attempts (31–23 on goal). They converted low-danger chances at rates that punished the opposing goalkeeper—two goals from spots E. Merzlikins should have closed out. Washington was also lethal in transition, scoring twice on 26 rush chances.
But the true separation lived in net. L. Thompson saved 1.9 goals above expected, converting a close underlying contest into a rout. E. Merzlikins surrendered 1.6 more than his workload warranted—an uncharacteristic poor outing for the otherwise reliable Columbus starter. The Blue Jackets generated five high-danger chances to Washington's three, yet scored once. Quality wasted.
J. Chychrun led the way with two goals in 24:54, while J. Carlson (1G, 1A in 19:41) and T. Wilson (1G, 1A in 17:39) added support. The three combined for four of Washington's five goals.
Columbus never recovered. The Blue Jackets' defeat wasn't about being outhustled—it was about variance compounding: out-shot, out-goaltended, and unable to convert the quality chances they did generate.
