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← Wed, Nov 26 · the slate
Breakdown · STL at NJD

Devils edge the Blues in overtime

Final / OTWed, Nov 26
STLSt. Louis Blues2NJDNew Jersey Devils3
The verdict · coin flip

The Devils won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

STL 2 · NJD 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 6:31 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils' 3-2 overtime victory against the Blues came despite high-danger chances that stayed even at 4–4. New Jersey's advantage came through volume and finishing. The Devils held 56% of shot attempts (29–23), and expected goals favored them 2.84–2.66. Simon Nemec's snap shot from the slot at 02:58 of overtime ended it.

The win hinged on clinical execution. New Jersey converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances (50%), while St. Louis scored twice from low-danger areas — the kind of goals J. Binnington can't afford to concede. Binnington stopped 26 of 29 for a 0.897 save percentage; J. Markstrom for New Jersey stopped 21 of 23 at 0.913, outperforming his expected value by 0.66 goals.

New Jersey was lethal on the rush, scoring 2 goals on 30 attempts. St. Louis managed equal scoring on only 20 rushing chances — identical conversion rate, half the volume. Crashing the net, New Jersey created 6 rebounds and converted 1; St. Louis managed 3 and 0, erasing second chances.

N. Hischier led New Jersey with 1 goal and 2 assists across 21:17. T. Meier added 1 goal and 1 assist in 21:29. C. Fowler recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 22:57 for St. Louis.

The result: Devils won where it counted, even if the path was narrower than the scoreboard suggested.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Nov 26
STL
2
NJD
3

Devils edge the Blues in overtime

Chances 2.7 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Devils took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
STL
2.66
NJD
2.84
48% of the chances52%

The board read STL 2, NJD 3. The chances read STL 2.7, NJD 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
+0.2
goals above expected
NJD2.84 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
STL2.66 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:16STLC. Fowler1–0
  2. P1 11:02NJDT. Meier1–1
  3. P1 14:37STLR. ThomasPP2–1
  4. P2 08:49NJDN. HischierPP2–2
  5. OT 02:58NJDS. Nemec2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
STL
34 shots
2
Final
77 shots
NJD
43 shots
3
STL attackNJD attack
STL NJD Goal
34
shots · 2 in
43
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
STLNJD
0 / 4
0.81 xG
High danger
2 / 4
1.02 xG
0 / 9
1.24 xG
Medium
0 / 14
1.31 xG
2 / 40
0.61 xG
Low
1 / 41
0.52 xG

The Blues went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
J. Markstrom
+0.7
NJD · 21/23
C
J. Binnington
−0.2
STL · 26/29
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Devils edge the Blues in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–14
  1. 02:16STLC. Fowler(N. Walker, L. Mailloux)1–0
  2. 11:02NJDT. Meier(N. Hischier, D. Hamilton)1–1
  3. 14:37STLR. Thomaspower play(C. Fowler, P. Buchnevich)2–1
2ndshots 8–9
  1. 08:49NJDN. Hischierpower play(T. Meier, L. Hughes)2–2
3rdshots 8–4no goals
    OTshots 0–2
    1. 02:58NJDS. Nemec(N. Hischier, P. Cotter)2–3

    score reads STL–NJD

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.84
    NJD chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.2
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.013
    NJD puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    52.7%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.66Expected goals2.84
    NJD 52% of the chance quality
    23Shots on goal29
    4High-danger chances4
    53All attempts (Corsi)59
    Adjusted for score: STL 46% · NJD 54%
    Faceoffs · NJD won47%off44%neu80%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    STL0 / 4 · 0.81 xG
    NJD2 / 4 · 1.02 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    STL0 / 9 · 1.24 xG
    NJD0 / 14 · 1.31 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    STL2 / 40 · 0.61 xG
    NJD1 / 41 · 0.52 xG

    STL went 2-for-40 from low danger on 0.61 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    STL
    2 G · 2.66 xG · -0.7
    NJD
    3 G · 2.84 xG · +0.2
    01234

    STL finished -0.7 against expected, NJD +0.2.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    STL
    WRIST2/23
    SNAP0/3
    SLAP0/4
    BACKHAND0/3
    TIP IN0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/19
    NJD
    WRIST1/29
    SNAP1/5
    SLAP0/3
    BACKHAND0/3
    TIP IN1/2
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/16
    STL
    NJD
    Off the rush
    2 G on 20
    1.64 xG
    2 G on 30
    1.88 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.35 xG
    1 G on 6
    0.88 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 2-for-23, NJD 1-for-29. STL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Binnington
    STL · 26/29 · .897
    -0.2
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/41.0-1.0
    Medium0/141.3+1.3
    Low1/410.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Markstrom
    NJD · 21/23 · .913
    +0.7
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/40.8+0.8
    Medium0/91.2+1.2
    Low2/400.6-1.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    77 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    STL
    34 shots
    2
    Final
    77 shots
    NJD
    43 shots
    3
    STL attackNJD attack
    STL NJD Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    N. Hischier
    #13 · C · NJD
    1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 21:17 on ice · +2
    C. Fowler
    #17 · D · STL
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:57 on ice
    T. Meier
    #28 · R · NJD
    1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 21:29 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Wed, Nov 26
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:39 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects 2.4 to 2.5 goals with New Jersey favored at 52% win probability—essentially a pick'em. Both teams enter with negative momentum: St. Louis at -8 goal differential over the last ten games, New Jersey at -7.

    Season 5v5 metrics reveal a compressed matchup. St. Louis runs 49.0% expected goals share and 48.0% Corsi; New Jersey sits at 50.0% xG and 51.0% Corsi, suggesting consistent territorial advantage. The real edge lies in finishing luck. St. Louis holds a 1.000 PDO, implying neutral finishing; New Jersey's 0.971 sits below regress expectation, meaning goals are likely coming.

    The Devils' territorial advantage translates to more offensive pressure if shooting rate climbs toward mean.

    Both J. Markstrom (St. Louis) and J. Hofer (New Jersey) work back-to-back games, raising the possibility of backup deployment or starter fatigue.

    St. Louis's offensive thrust flows through Jimmy Snuggerud (0.86 xG/60, 11.9% shooting, 15 goals, 22 assists, 2 high-danger goals) and Dylan Holloway (0.82 xG/60, 10.8% shooting, 13 goals, 24 assists, 1 high-danger goal). Both convert above their underlying chance quality.

    New Jersey counters with Timo Meier (1.08 xG/60, 6.7% shooting, 13 goals, 15 assists, 3 high-danger goals) and Jack Hughes (0.88 xG/60, 11.5% shooting, 18 goals, 17 assists, 1 high-danger goal). Meier's modest goal total against high expected production suggests significant undershoot; Hughes shoots closer to expectation but has just one high-danger goal from 18 total, implying both luck and approach lag finishing quality.

    The mismatch: St. Louis shoots efficiently despite modest expected goals; New Jersey generates quality but finishes below expectation. In a coin flip, that regression pressure favors the Devils.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    NJD 52%
    52%
    NJD
    Model favorite
    48%
    52%
    STL50NJD

    NJD by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 2.4–2.5 NJD; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    STL← edge
    edge →NJD
    49.0%50.0%
    48.0%51.0%
    2.342.45
    2.402.50
    2.001.66
    2.122.23
    1.0000.971

    The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.000 vs 0.971) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    STL
    3-3-4
    -8 GD · 1d rest
    NJD
    5-4-1
    -7 GD · 1d rest
    1.000
    STL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.971
    NJD PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Devils drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Devils drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • J. Hofer is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Devils are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Blues are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    STL
    Expected in goal
    J. Hofer
    back-to-back.857 last start
    Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NJD
    Expected in goal
    J. Markstrom
    back-to-back.914 last start
    Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    STL
    Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A
    0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh
    Dylan Holloway13G 24A
    0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh
    NJD
    Timo Meier13G 15A
    1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
    Jack Hughes18G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page