Motion-blurred skater in a gold and black sweater

Breakdown · BOS at NYI

J. Swayman stands tall as the Bruins edge the Islanders

FinalWed, Nov 26

BOSBoston Bruins3 NYINew York Islanders1

The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 1.95–4.60 and won anyway.

BOS 3 · NYI 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:39 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins won 3–1 despite being outshot in expected goals 4.60–1.95. The Islanders controlled 70% of high-danger chances and dominated possession. This was a heist by Boston.

New York took 76% of shot attempts at 44–14. They led 6–3 in high-danger chances. But the Bruins converted theirs ruthlessly. A. Steeves scored the turning point at P3, 10:21, and Boston punished the rush: two goals on fifteen chances.

J. Swayman made the difference. He stopped 43 of 44 shots for a 0.977 SV%, finishing 3.60 goals above expected—the largest margin of the night. I. Sorokin faced 14 shots, saved 11 (0.786 SV%), and finished 1.05 goals below expected. The goaltending disparity decided the outcome.

New York wasted its dominance. The Islanders created eight rebound opportunities and converted none, failing to compound their edge. Boston's high-danger efficiency was surgical—the Bruins took their openings and finished.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 26

BOS

NYI

J. Swayman stands tall as the Bruins edge the Islanders

Chances 1.9 – 4.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

BOS

1.95

NYI

4.60

30% of the chances70%

The board read BOS 3, NYI 1. The chances read BOS 1.9, NYI 4.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BOS

+1.1

goals above expected

BOS1.95 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI4.60 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Islanders left 3.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:41NYIM. Barzal0–1
P1 06:23BOSA. Steeves1–1
P2 00:43BOST. Jeannot2–1
P3 10:21BOSA. SteevesSH3–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

BOS

24 shots

Final

87 shots

NYI

63 shots

BOS NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

BOSNYI

1 / 3

0.72 xG

High danger

1 / 6

1.41 xG

2 / 8

0.99 xG

Medium

0 / 22

2.30 xG

0 / 31

0.23 xG

Low

0 / 52

0.90 xG

High-danger looks: BOS 1 of 3, NYI 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Swayman

+3.6

BOS · 43/44

D-

I. Sorokin

−1.1

NYI · 11/14

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

J. Swayman stands tall as the Bruins edge the Islanders

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 4–10

04:41NYIM. Barzal(T. DeAngelo, M. Schaefer)0–1
06:23BOSA. Steeves(S. Kuraly, M. Eyssimont)1–1

2ndshots 7–11

00:43BOST. Jeannot(F. Minten)2–1

3rdshots 3–23

10:21BOSA. Steevesshorthanded(F. Minten)3–1

score reads BOS–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

1.95

BOS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.059

BOS puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

34.4%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.95Expected goals4.60

NYI 70% of the chance quality

14Shots on goal44

3High-danger chances6

42All attempts (Corsi)80

Adjusted for score: BOS 32% · NYI 68%

Faceoffs · NYI won77%off42%neu19%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

BOS1 / 3 · 0.72 xG

NYI1 / 6 · 1.41 xG

Medium dangermid-range

BOS2 / 8 · 0.99 xG

NYI0 / 22 · 2.30 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

BOS0 / 31 · 0.23 xG

NYI0 / 52 · 0.90 xG

NYI went 0-for-22 from medium danger on 2.30 expected goals — 2.3 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

BOS

3 G · 1.95 xG · +1.1

NYI

1 G · 4.60 xG · -3.6

012345

BOS finished +1.1 against expected, NYI -3.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

BOS

SNAP1/3

WRIST2/15

BACKHAND0/2

SLAP0/0

TIP IN0/3

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/18

NYI

SNAP0/39

WRIST1/9

BACKHAND0/6

SLAP0/6

TIP IN0/1

DEFLECTED0/2

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/17

BOS

NYI

Off the rush

2 G on 15

1.48 xG

1 G on 39

2.77 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.21 xG

0 G on 8

1.11 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: BOS went 1-for-3, NYI 0-for-39. BOS scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Swayman

BOS · 43/44 · .977

+3.6

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.4+0.4

Medium0/222.3+2.3

Low0/520.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Sorokin

NYI · 11/14 · .786

-1.1

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.7-0.3

Medium2/81.0-1.0

Low0/310.2+0.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

87 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

BOS

24 shots

Final

87 shots

NYI

63 shots

BOS NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

F. Minten

#93 · C · BOS

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 15:29 on ice · +2

A. Steeves

#21 · C · BOS

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 11:41 on ice · +2

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 7 SOG · 25:18 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Nov 26

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:38 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.7 goal game with the Islanders at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Start with what makes this even: Boston's 47.0% expected goals share and New York's 48.0% are separated by a rounding error. Corsi% lands at 49.0 for both. Neither team has a meaningful possession or chance advantage.

The variance lives in luck. Boston's PDO is 1.023—running hot on both shooting and save percentage. Expect some regression. New York carries a 0.993, suggesting they're converting below their underlying quality. In a game this tight, positive regression on the Islanders side becomes a tiebreaker.

The Bruins' scoring hinges on Viktor Arvidsson, posting 1.04 expected goals per 60 with 18 goals and 24 assists. His 13.0% shooting rate on 2 high-danger goals signals he's both generating and finishing at volume. Tanner Jeannot (0.75 xG/60, 6G 14A, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting) offers secondary punch without the same volume.

The Islanders counter with Anders Lee at 1.20 xG/60—the highest rate on the ice—backed by 9 goals, 20 assists, and 2 high-danger goals on a 6.4% shooting rate. That low conversion hints at untapped upside. Bo Horvat brings 0.87 xG/60 with 18 goals and 10 assists; his 12.8% shooting rate and 3 high-danger goals make him a genuine second-line threat.

Both teams mask defensive weakness. Boston's Elias Lindholm and New York's Alexander Romanov are soft spots. Neither team converts high-danger or rebound chances efficiently—both at 0%—which means the game pivots on transition efficiency and who stays cleaner in their own end.

The edge goes to New York on variance, but Boston's individual talent keeps this a coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 53%

53%

NYI

Model favorite

47%

53%

BOS50NYI

NYI by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.7 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS← edge

edge →NYI

47.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.392.48

2.672.69

2.221.78

1.821.94

1.0230.993

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.023 vs 0.993) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

BOS

6-4-0

+1 GD · 2d rest

NYI

7-3-0

+8 GD · 3d rest

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Swayman

2 days rest.933 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

D. Rittich

3 days rest1.000 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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