Motion-blurred skater in a blue sweater
Breakdown · NYR at BOS

Rangers pull away from the Bruins

The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 6 · BOS 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:53 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Rangers' 6-2 victory was more lopsided than the underlying metrics alone would suggest. New York controlled 58% of 5v5 expected goals (4.72–3.39) and led in shot attempts (37–21), numbers that would predict a Rangers win but not by four goals. The difference came down to finishing: the Bruins underperformed their 3.39 xG by 1.39 goals, while the Rangers overperformed their 4.72 by 1.28.

I. Shesterkin (NYR) was the difference, stopping 1.4 goals above expected. J. Korpisalo (BOS) allowed the Rangers to exploit their advantages.

The Bruins generated 15 high-danger chances combined with New York (7–8 split), suggesting a competitive game despite the lopsided scoreline. But the Rangers' efficiency elsewhere told the real story: they scored 5 goals off the rush on 29 chances and added 2 goals from low-danger spots—the opportunistic finishing that separates blowouts from competitive games. The power play was equally dominant: 2 goals on 7 shots (0.94 xG).

Vladislav Gavrikov's tip-in from the doorstep (17:02, third period) was the turning point, extending an already-commanding lead.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 28
NYR
6
BOS
2

Rangers pull away from the Bruins

Chances 4.7 – 3.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NYR
4.72
BOS
3.39
58% of the chances42%

The board read NYR 6, BOS 2. The chances read NYR 4.7, BOS 3.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYR
+1.3
goals above expected
NYR4.72 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
BOS3.39 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:28NYRA. Panarin1–0
  2. P1 12:02NYRC. Soucy2–0
  3. P2 14:22NYRM. ZibanejadPP3–0
  4. P2 15:07NYRM. ZibanejadPP4–0
  5. P3 04:07BOSC. Mittelstadt4–1
  6. P3 05:49BOSM. Geekie4–2
  7. P3 16:36NYRA. LafrenièreEN5–2
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYR
52 shots
6
Final
89 shots
BOS
37 shots
2
NYR attackBOS attack
NYR BOS Goal
52
shots · 6 in
37
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYRBOS
1 / 8
2.12 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.79 xG
3 / 18
1.95 xG
Medium
1 / 15
1.27 xG
2 / 36
0.64 xG
Low
0 / 34
0.33 xG

High-danger looks: NYR 1 of 8, BOS 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
I. Shesterkin
+1.4
NYR · 19/21
D
J. Korpisalo
−0.3
BOS · 31/36
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Rangers pull away from the Bruins

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 12–7
  1. 03:28NYRA. Panarin(W. Cuylle)1–0
  2. 12:02NYRC. Soucy(V. Trocheck, A. Panarin)2–0
2ndshots 17–5
  1. 14:22NYRM. Zibanejadpower play(A. Panarin, A. Fox)3–0
  2. 15:07NYRM. Zibanejadpower play(A. Panarin, A. Fox)4–0
3rdshots 8–9
  1. 04:07BOSC. Mittelstadt(E. Lindholm)4–1
  2. 05:49BOSM. Geekie(H. Jokiharju, E. Lindholm)4–2
  3. 16:36NYRA. Lafrenièreempty net(S. Morrow)5–2
  4. 17:02NYRV. Gavrikov(V. Trocheck, A. Fox)6–2

score reads NYR–BOS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.72
NYR chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.061
NYR puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
52.5%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.72Expected goals3.39
NYR 58% of the chance quality
37Shots on goal21
8High-danger chances7
62All attempts (Corsi)56
Adjusted for score: NYR 45% · BOS 55%
Faceoffs · BOS won50%off41%neu46%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NYR1 / 8 · 2.12 xG
BOS1 / 7 · 1.79 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NYR3 / 18 · 1.95 xG
BOS1 / 15 · 1.27 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NYR2 / 36 · 0.64 xG
BOS0 / 34 · 0.33 xG

NYR went 2-for-36 from low danger on 0.64 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NYR
6 G · 4.72 xG · +1.3
BOS
2 G · 3.39 xG · -1.4
01234567

NYR finished +1.3 against expected, BOS -1.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NYR
SNAP1/17
WRIST1/20
SLAP2/7
TIP IN2/3
BACKHAND0/5
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/10
BOS
SNAP1/19
WRIST0/8
SLAP0/2
TIP IN1/4
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/19
NYR
BOS
Off the rush
5 G on 29
2.84 xG
1 G on 18
1.63 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 7
1.07 xG
0 G on 7
1.28 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-17, BOS 1-for-19. NYR scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
I. Shesterkin
NYR · 19/21 · .905
+1.4
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/71.8+0.8
Medium1/151.3+0.3
Low0/340.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Korpisalo
BOS · 31/36 · .861
-0.3
saved above expected
D
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/82.1+1.1
Medium3/181.9-1.1
Low2/360.6-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NYR
52 shots
6
Final
89 shots
BOS
37 shots
2
NYR attackBOS attack
NYR BOS Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
A. Panarin
#10 · L · NYR
1 G · 3 A · 2 SOG · 17:45 on ice · +1
A. Fox
#23 · D · NYR
0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 22:24 on ice
M. Zibanejad
#93 · C · NYR
2 G · 0 A · 7 SOG · 18:24 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Nov 28
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:52 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.5 game with the Bruins at 51% win probability. This is as close to a toss-up as the numbers allow.

Underlying play is even. New York holds a marginal edge in expected goals—48.0% to 47.0%—while Corsi stands dead even at 49.0% apiece. But Boston has converted at an unsustainable rate. Their 1.023 PDO, a measure of shooting luck and save percentage combined, signals that this outpacing is built on fortune rather than skill. Expect some of it to evaporate. The Rangers' 1.009 suggests they've been modestly lucky too, though less so.

Both teams face goaltending uncertainty on the back-to-back: J. Swayman for Boston and I. Shesterkin for New York. The question is whether each gets a rest or runs on fumes.

Boston's offense has more depth. Viktor Arvidsson carries the load (18G 24A, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting), while Tanner Jeannot (6G 14A, 0.75 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting) provides secondary production. New York's Adam Sykora generates dangerous chances—0.91 xG/60 on just 3 goals and 1 assist—but is shooting at an unsustainable 20.0%. Gabe Perreault (8G 11A, 0.79 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 13.1% shooting) offers steadier secondary output.

What neither team has accomplished is translating high-danger opportunities into goals. Both sit at 0% of their scoring from pure high-danger chances and 0% from rebounds—a sign that their offenses aren't getting where they need to be, regardless of volume. That's not fluctuation; that's structural.

Defensively, both teams have exposed weak links. Vincent Iorio is New York's vulnerability; Elias Lindholm is Boston's. In a tight game, these gaps metastasize.

This matchup boils down to which team's luck reverts first. The Bruins have less margin before regression hits. The Rangers have more upside if variance shifts their way.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

BOS 51%
51%
BOS
Model favorite
49%
51%
NYR50BOS

BOS by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 2.5–2.5 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NYR← edge
edge →BOS
48.0%47.0%
49.0%49.0%
2.262.39
2.402.67
1.882.22
1.901.82
1.0091.023

BOS holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NYR
5-5-0
+0 GD · 1d rest
BOS
6-4-0
+2 GD · 1d rest
1.009
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.023
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • J. Swayman is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • I. Shesterkin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
NYR
Expected in goal
I. Shesterkin
back-to-back.947 last start
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BOS
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
back-to-back.977 last start
Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NYR
Adam Sykora3G 1A
0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh
Gabe Perreault8G 11A
0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh
BOS
Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next