Motion-blurred skater in a New Jersey Devils sweater

Breakdown · NJD at BUF

Devils shut out the Sabres, 5-0

FinalFri, Nov 28

NJDNew Jersey Devils5 BUFBuffalo Sabres0

The verdict · stolen

The Devils stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.07–4.73 and won anyway.

NJD 5 · BUF 0

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:53 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Buffalo owned the ice and lost 5-0 — the Sabres held 70% of expected goals (4.73–2.07) and 65% of shot attempts (42–23), a dominance the scoreboard entirely inverted. New Jersey stole this one.

Goaltending determined the gap. J. Allen finished 42/42 with a 1.000 save percentage, posting +4.73 goals above expected. A. Lyon stopped 18 of 23 and checked in at -2.93, giving up 2.9 more goals than his workload suggested he should have. Buffalo wasted high-danger opportunities: 0/9 on prime chances, a conversion drought that doesn't survive when the opponent finishes as well as the Devils did here.

The Sabres created constantly. They generated six rebound chances and maintained relentless possession, yet converted none. New Jersey answered with precision on the rush, scoring four times off 21 attempts. Arseny Gritsyuk's wrist shot from the slot at 16:49 of the third ignited that burst. Buffalo had the volume; they lacked the execution.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 28

NJD

BUF

Devils shut out the Sabres, 5-0

Chances 2.1 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Sabres deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

NJD

2.07

BUF

4.73

31% of the chances70%

The board read NJD 5, BUF 0. The chances read NJD 2.1, BUF 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NJD

+2.9

goals above expected

NJD2.07 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

BUF4.73 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Devils scored 2.9 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 12:07NJDN. Hischier1–0
P2 07:45NJDA. Gritsyuk2–0
P3 01:39NJDB. Dillon3–0
P3 05:22NJDP. Cotter4–0
P3 16:49NJDA. Gritsyuk5–0

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NJD

29 shots

Final

93 shots

BUF

64 shots

NJD BUF GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 0 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NJDBUF

2 / 3

0.59 xG

High danger

0 / 9

1.97 xG

3 / 9

1.10 xG

Medium

0 / 16

1.87 xG

0 / 26

0.38 xG

Low

0 / 63

0.90 xG

The Sabres went 0 for 9 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Allen

+4.7

NJD · 42/42

A. Lyon

−2.9

BUF · 18/23

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Devils shut out the Sabres, 5-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–10

12:07NJDN. Hischier(T. Meier)1–0

2ndshots 8–15

07:45NJDA. Gritsyuk(O. Palat, D. Mercer)2–0

3rdshots 6–17

01:39NJDB. Dillon(C. Brown, P. Cotter)3–0
05:22NJDP. Cotter(B. Dillon)4–0
16:49NJDA. Gritsyuk(O. Palat)5–0

score reads NJD–BUF

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.07

NJD chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.132

NJD puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

30.2%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.07Expected goals4.73

BUF 70% of the chance quality

23Shots on goal42

3High-danger chances9

38All attempts (Corsi)88

Adjusted for score: NJD 26% · BUF 74%

Faceoffs · BUF won64%off42%neu33%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NJD2 / 3 · 0.59 xG

BUF0 / 9 · 1.97 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NJD3 / 9 · 1.10 xG

BUF0 / 16 · 1.87 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NJD0 / 26 · 0.38 xG

BUF0 / 63 · 0.90 xG

BUF went 0-for-9 from high danger on 1.97 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NJD

5 G · 2.07 xG · +2.9

BUF

0 G · 4.73 xG · -4.7

0123456

NJD finished +2.9 against expected, BUF -4.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NJD

WRIST2/16

SLAP1/4

TIP IN0/2

SNAP1/4

BACKHAND1/2

POKE0/1

BAT0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/9

BUF

WRIST0/37

SLAP0/8

TIP IN0/6

SNAP0/4

BACKHAND0/4

POKE0/2

BAT0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/24

NJD

BUF

Off the rush

4 G on 21

1.64 xG

0 G on 36

2.67 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.15 xG

0 G on 6

1.15 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NJD went 2-for-16, BUF 0-for-37. NJD scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Allen

NJD · 42/42 · 1.000

+4.7

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/92.0+2.0

Medium0/161.9+1.9

Low0/630.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Lyon

BUF · 18/23 · .783

-2.9

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/30.6-1.4

Medium3/91.1-1.9

Low0/260.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

93 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NJD

29 shots

Final

93 shots

BUF

64 shots

NJD BUF GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, BUF right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

B. Dillon

#5 · D · NJD

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 18:47 on ice · +3

P. Cotter

#47 · L · NJD

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 16:03 on ice · +2

A. Gritsyuk

#81 · R · NJD

2 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 14:00 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Nov 28

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:52 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game with the Sabres at 53% win probability: a coin flip, nothing more.

New Jersey has momentum. The Devils are 6–3–1 in their last 10, while Buffalo grinds through the regular season like everyone else. But momentum fades under pressure, and the season-long numbers say these teams are equals.

At 5v5, both clubs sit at 50.0% expected goals percentage—perfectly split. New Jersey has a marginal edge in puck possession at 51.0% Corsi% while Buffalo trails at 49.0%, but neither advantage runs deep enough to break a tie.

Regression is the story underneath. Buffalo's PDO of 1.020 means they've converted their chances at an unsustainable clip and posted better-than-deserved goaltending luck. Expect a pullback. New Jersey's PDO of 0.971 tells the opposite tale—the Devils are running cold, converting at a below-expected rate. Positive regression lives here.

Both goalies sit on back-to-backs: U. Luukkonen for the Sabres, J. Markstrom for the Devils. Either could be pulled for a backup, or both could start tired. This is the likeliest variable changer in the room.

On offense, watch Timo Meier (13G, 15A) and Jack Hughes (18G, 17A) for New Jersey. Meier generates chances at 1.08 xG/60 with 3 high-danger goals, though his 6.7% shooting rate suggests he'll regress. Hughes shoots at 11.5% on 0.88 xG/60 and has scored only 1 high-danger goal—a mismatch suggesting he's outpacing his quality. For Buffalo, Jason Zucker (14G, 14A) operates at 1.07 xG/60 with 6 high-danger goals and an unsustainable 15.1% shooting clip. Josh Doan (15G, 18A) generates 1.01 xG/60 with 2 high-danger goals at 11.5% shooting.

The defensive picture is obscured by tracking gaps. New Jersey's high-danger goal rate sits at 0%, as does Buffalo's. Neither team has registered a rebound goal. Johnathan Kovacevic is New Jersey's defensive weak link; Jack Quinn is Buffalo's. Without fuller context, this data resists interpretation.

The math says pick the Sabres by a hair, but that hair is invisible.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

BUF 53%

53%

BUF

Model favorite

47%

53%

NJD50BUF

BUF by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NJD 2.5–2.6 BUF; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD← edge

edge →BUF

50.0%50.0%

51.0%49.0%

2.452.55

2.502.55

1.662.35

2.231.90

0.9711.020

BUF holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 1.020) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NJD

6-3-1

-3 GD · 1d rest

BUF

4-6-0

-4 GD · 1d rest

0.971

NJD PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.020

BUF PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

U. Luukkonen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Devils are the hotter team by points pace (6-3-1 in their last 10).
The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NJD

Expected in goal

J. Markstrom

back-to-back.913 last start

Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BUF

Expected in goal

U. Luukkonen

back-to-back.833 last start

Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · +10.5 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD

Timo Meier13G 15A

1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh

Jack Hughes18G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh

BUF

Jason Zucker14G 14A

1.07 xG/60 · 6 HD · 15.1% sh

Josh Doan15G 18A

1.01 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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