The Capitals won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Capitals won 4-1 against the Islanders, but the underlying play was nearly indistinguishable — expected goals split 3.89–3.97. The difference was goaltending. L. Thompson stopped 2.89 more shots than expected, while the Islanders wasted quality chances by underperforming their xG by 2.89 goals.
The Islanders generated the volume: 62% of shot attempts (31–19 on goal). High-danger chances favored Washington slightly, 7–5. But the Islanders failed to convert. I. Sorokin saved 1.97 goals above expected, yet still lost decisively — a sign that shot quality mattered less than shot volume.
The game turned on Alex Ovechkin's wrist shot from the slot in the third period (19:29), one of three rush-chance goals Washington scored on just 19 opportunities. The Islanders crashed the net effectively, creating five rebound chances, but converted none. That was the game: New York generated possession and opportunity; Washington finished plays and benefited from elite goaltending.
T. Wilson (2G, 1A) led the offensive effort, while A. Ovechkin (1G, 1A) provided the turning-point goal. M. Schaefer (1A) led the Islanders in ice time (26:12) but couldn't stem the bleeding.
