Motion-blurred skater in a Toronto Maple Leafs sweater

Breakdown · TOR at FLA

Maple Leafs run the Panthers off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalTue, Dec 2

TORToronto Maple Leafs4 FLAFlorida Panthers1

The verdict · earned

The Maple Leafs earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

TOR 4 · FLA 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 6:40 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Maple Leafs beat the Panthers 4–1, and the scoreboard understated Toronto's dominance. The real gap wasn't shot volume—Florida had 46% of shot attempts—but shot quality. Toronto controlled 62% of expected goals, while the Panthers generated just 38%, an eight-point gap that exposed how few dangerous chances they actually created.

Toronto's edges came from two places. The Leafs posted an expected goal rate of 0.072 per shot; Florida managed 0.041, meaning Toronto found the dangerous ice repeatedly while Florida fired from distance. On the rush, Toronto converted at a lethal clip: three goals on 28 chances.

The goalies told different stories. J. Woll stopped 25 of 26 and saved 1.58 goals above expected—stole the show. S. Bobrovsky saved 1.29 above expected, but the Panthers underperformed their expected goals by 1.58 regardless. Woll's excellence compounded a qualitative gulf.

John Tavares's wrist shot from the slot (19:41, third period) was the turning point.

Three Stars

#28 T. Stecher (TOR) — 1G, 1A in 24:26
#74 B. McMann (TOR) — 2A in 13:34
#81 D. Joshua (TOR) — 1G, 1A in 11:07

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 2

TOR

FLA

Maple Leafs run the Panthers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.3 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Maple Leafs earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

TOR

4.29

FLA

2.58

63% of the chances38%

The board read TOR 4, FLA 1. The chances read TOR 4.3, FLA 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

TOR

−0.3

goals above expected

TOR4.29 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

FLA2.58 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Panthers left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 05:24TORT. Stecher1–0
P1 07:54TORD. Joshua2–0
P2 14:43FLAS. ReinhartSH2–1
P3 12:18TORS. Laughton3–1
P3 19:41TORJ. TavaresEN4–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

TOR

48 shots

Final

89 shots

FLA

41 shots

TOR FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

TORFLA

1 / 3

1.33 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.12 xG

2 / 19

2.37 xG

Medium

0 / 8

0.86 xG

1 / 38

0.60 xG

Low

0 / 50

0.60 xG

High-danger looks: TOR 1 of 3, FLA 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Woll

+1.6

TOR · 25/26

B+

S. Bobrovsky

+1.3

FLA · 27/30

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Maple Leafs run the Panthers off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 11–11

05:24TORT. Stecher(B. McMann, D. Joshua)1–0
07:54TORD. Joshua(B. McMann, T. Stecher)2–0

2ndshots 10–9

14:43FLAS. Reinhartshorthanded(A. Lundell)2–1

3rdshots 10–6

12:18TORS. Laughton(S. Lorentz)3–1
19:41TORJ. Tavaresempty net(A. Matthews, M. Domi)4–1

score reads TOR–FLA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.29

TOR chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.3

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.051

TOR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

48.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.29Expected goals2.58

TOR 63% of the chance quality

31Shots on goal26

3High-danger chances5

60All attempts (Corsi)63

Adjusted for score: TOR 43% · FLA 57%

Faceoffs · FLA won35%off31%neu19%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

TOR1 / 3 · 1.33 xG

FLA1 / 5 · 1.12 xG

Medium dangermid-range

TOR2 / 19 · 2.37 xG

FLA0 / 8 · 0.86 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

TOR1 / 38 · 0.60 xG

FLA0 / 50 · 0.60 xG

FLA went 0-for-8 from medium danger on 0.86 expected goals — 0.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

TOR

4 G · 4.29 xG · -0.3

FLA

1 G · 2.58 xG · -1.6

012345

TOR finished -0.3 against expected, FLA -1.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

TOR

SNAP0/24

WRIST4/8

TIP IN0/7

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/12

FLA

SNAP0/13

WRIST1/16

TIP IN0/6

SLAP0/2

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/2

BAT0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/22

TOR

FLA

Off the rush

3 G on 28

3.56 xG

1 G on 25

1.90 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 4

0.43 xG

0 G on 2

0.24 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: TOR went 0-for-24, FLA 0-for-13. TOR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Woll

TOR · 25/26 · .962

+1.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.1+0.1

Medium0/80.9+0.9

Low0/500.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Bobrovsky

FLA · 27/30 · .900

+1.3

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/31.3+0.3

Medium2/192.4+0.4

Low1/380.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

TOR

48 shots

Final

89 shots

FLA

41 shots

TOR FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — TOR left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

T. Stecher

#28 · D · TOR

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 24:26 on ice · +4

B. McMann

#74 · C · TOR

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 13:34 on ice · +2

D. Joshua

#81 · C · TOR

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 11:07 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Dec 2

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 6:38 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Florida's advantage is built on two edges: schedule and play. The Panthers arrive on 4 days of rest; Toronto on 2. Off the ice, the models show Florida controlling territory. The Panthers' Corsi sits at 52.0% versus Toronto's 45.0%. The expected goals split follows: 49.0% xG for Florida, 46.0% for Toronto. The projection: a 2.4–2.7 goal game at 55% Panthers win probability.

Shooting luck favors neither team. Toronto's PDO of 1.002 and Florida's 0.989 are both near neutral, indicating the gap is structural, not variance.

Players to Watch

Toronto:

Auston Matthews: 1.10 xG/60, 17 goals, 13 assists, 1 high-danger goal, 10.6% shooting
John Tavares: 0.91 xG/60, 15 goals, 24 assists, 3 high-danger goals, 12.4% shooting

Florida:

Sam Bennett: 0.97 xG/60, 18 goals, 19 assists, 6 high-danger goals, 13.1% shooting
Brad Marchand: 0.93 xG/60, 17 goals, 9 assists, 3 high-danger goals, 19.5% shooting

The rest advantage and territorial edge align. Expect Florida to control the second period.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

FLA 55%

55%

FLA

Model favorite

45%

55%

TOR50FLA

FLA by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score TOR 2.4–2.7 FLA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

TOR← edge

edge →FLA

46.0%49.0%

45.0%52.0%

2.242.48

2.672.56

2.091.98

2.522.21

1.0020.989

FLA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 0.989) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

TOR

3-5-2

-4 GD · 2d rest

FLA

5-5-0

+2 GD · 4d rest

1.002

TOR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Panthers have 2 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

TOR

Expected in goal

D. Hildeby

2 days rest.943 last start

Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

FLA

Expected in goal

D. Tarasov

4 days rest.879 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

TOR

Auston Matthews17G 13A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh

John Tavares15G 24A

0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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