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← Tue, Dec 2 · the slate
Breakdown · DAL at NYR

Rangers edge the Stars in overtime

Final / OTTue, Dec 2
DALDallas Stars2NYRNew York Rangers3
The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

DAL 2 · NYR 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 6:39 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Rangers won 3-2 in overtime despite their play suggesting a larger margin—they controlled 60% of 5v5 expected goals (3.95–2.65) and 61% of shot attempts (41–26). New York underperformed by 0.95 goals, while Dallas hung on through C. DeSmith's overperformance (also +0.95).

Vladislav Gavrikov's backhander from the slot at 01:09 of overtime decided it. The Rangers converted three rebound opportunities while Dallas generated three without scoring. I. Shesterkin made 24 of 26 shots (0.923 SV%, +0.65 vs expected), working soundly behind the dominant team.

Dallas was dangerous in transition—two goals on 19 rush chances—but couldn't establish 5v5 pressure. New York's dominance came from puck recovery and structural play.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Dec 2
DAL
2
NYR
3

Rangers edge the Stars in overtime

Chances 2.6 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
DAL
2.65
NYR
3.95
40% of the chances60%

The board read DAL 2, NYR 3. The chances read DAL 2.6, NYR 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYR
−0.9
goals above expected
NYR3.95 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
DAL2.65 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:51NYRC. Soucy0–1
  2. P1 09:04DALK. Capobianco1–1
  3. P3 09:32DALM. Rantanen2–1
  4. P3 17:47NYRW. CuyllePP2–2
  5. OT 01:09NYRV. Gavrikov2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DAL
36 shots
2
Final
90 shots
NYR
54 shots
3
DAL attackNYR attack
DAL NYR Goal
36
shots · 2 in
54
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DALNYR
1 / 5
1.14 xG
High danger
2 / 6
1.51 xG
0 / 8
0.94 xG
Medium
1 / 15
1.57 xG
1 / 39
0.57 xG
Low
0 / 51
0.87 xG

The Rangers buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
C. DeSmith
+0.9
DAL · 38/41
B
I. Shesterkin
+0.7
NYR · 24/26
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Rangers edge the Stars in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–10
  1. 06:51NYRC. Soucy(N. Laba, C. Sheary)0–1
  2. 09:04DALK. Capobianco1–1
2ndshots 12–11no goals
    3rdshots 4–18
    1. 09:32DALM. Rantanen(W. Johnston)2–1
    2. 17:47NYRW. Cuyllepower play(V. Trocheck, A. Panarin)2–2
    OTshots 0–2
    1. 01:09NYRV. Gavrikov(A. Panarin, M. Zibanejad)2–3

    score reads DAL–NYR

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.95
    NYR chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.9
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.003
    NYR puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    58.1%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.65Expected goals3.95
    NYR 60% of the chance quality
    26Shots on goal41
    5High-danger chances6
    52All attempts (Corsi)72
    Adjusted for score: DAL 42% · NYR 59%
    Faceoffs · NYR won48%off53%neu36%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    DAL1 / 5 · 1.14 xG
    NYR2 / 6 · 1.51 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    DAL0 / 8 · 0.94 xG
    NYR1 / 15 · 1.57 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    DAL1 / 39 · 0.57 xG
    NYR0 / 51 · 0.87 xG

    DAL went 0-for-8 from medium danger on 0.94 expected goals — 0.9 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    DAL
    2 G · 2.65 xG · -0.7
    NYR
    3 G · 3.95 xG · -0.9
    012345

    DAL finished -0.7 against expected, NYR -0.9.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    DAL
    WRIST0/20
    SNAP2/8
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/2
    SLAP0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/16
    NYR
    WRIST2/34
    SNAP0/7
    TIP IN0/10
    BACKHAND1/2
    SLAP0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/18
    DAL
    NYR
    Off the rush
    2 G on 19
    1.86 xG
    0 G on 35
    2.61 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.53 xG
    3 G on 3
    0.74 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: DAL went 0-for-20, NYR 2-for-34. DAL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    C. DeSmith
    DAL · 38/41 · .927
    +0.9
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/61.5-0.5
    Medium1/151.6+0.6
    Low0/510.9+0.9

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    I. Shesterkin
    NYR · 24/26 · .923
    +0.7
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.1+0.1
    Medium0/80.9+0.9
    Low1/390.6-0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    90 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    DAL
    36 shots
    2
    Final
    90 shots
    NYR
    54 shots
    3
    DAL attackNYR attack
    DAL NYR Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    A. Panarin
    #10 · L · NYR
    0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 22:35 on ice · +2
    M. Zibanejad
    #93 · C · NYR
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:54 on ice · +2
    V. Trocheck
    #16 · C · NYR
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:30 on ice · -1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Dec 2
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 6:36 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.4–2.4 scoreline with the Rangers at 50% win probability. There is no edge.

    Dallas owns the underlying play: 51.0% expected goals to New York's 48.0%. That's a genuine system advantage. Yet the Rangers flip the narrative in shot attempts, holding 49.0% Corsi to Dallas' 47.0%, meaning New York manufactures chances in tighter possessions despite ceding the xG battle. One metric favors Dallas' system, the other New York's execution.

    The Stars are 8-1-1 in their last 10, visibly fresher. But freshness is already priced in at 50%. Dallas' 1.024 PDO signals elevated luck running against regression; New York's 1.009 is flatter. If the Stars' finish regresses even modestly, the advantage evaporates.

    Jason Robertson powers Dallas at 0.96 xG/60 with 25 goals and 21 assists, including 2 high-danger chances on a 12.4% shooting rate. Michael Bunting (0.83 xG/60, 8 goals and 14 assists, 7.6% shooting) provides secondary scoring on thinner margins.

    For New York, Adam Sykora (0.91 xG/60, 3 goals and 1 assist) is explosive per-minute but a volume non-starter, converting at 20.0%—unsustainable noise. Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60, 8 goals, 11 assists, 2 high-danger chances, 13.1% shooting) is the steadier play, with a conversion rate that feels anchored.

    Tyler Myers is Dallas' defensive weak link; Vincent Iorio occupies that slot for New York. Neither team generates high-danger or rebound goals, so first-shot quality and goaltending will decide this.

    The pick is 50%. Flip a coin.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    NYR 50%
    50%
    NYR
    Model favorite
    50%
    50%
    DAL50NYR

    NYR by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DAL 2.4–2.4 NYR; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    DAL← edge
    edge →NYR
    51.0%48.0%
    47.0%49.0%
    2.362.26
    2.292.40
    2.071.88
    1.681.90
    1.0241.009

    DAL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 1.009) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    DAL
    8-1-1
    +24 GD · 2d rest
    NYR
    5-5-0
    +3 GD · 3d rest
    1.024
    DAL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.009
    NYR PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
    Regression watch
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
    • The Stars are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 in their last 10).
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    DAL
    Expected in goal
    C. DeSmith
    2 days rest.938 last start
    Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NYR
    Expected in goal
    I. Shesterkin
    3 days rest.912 last start
    Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    DAL
    Jason Robertson25G 21A
    0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
    Michael Bunting8G 14A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
    NYR
    Adam Sykora3G 1A
    0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh
    Gabe Perreault8G 11A
    0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page