The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.54–3.96 and won anyway.
I. Sorokin stole a game the Lightning should have owned. New York won 2-1, but expected goals said otherwise: Tampa Bay generated 4.54 to the Islanders' 3.96, a 53-47 split in the visitors' favor. Sorokin's 0.968 save percentage and +3.54 goals saved above expected explain the gap—he turned a likely loss into a narrow win.
The Islanders controlled possession where it mattered. Shot attempts ran 24-31 against them, but they packed more danger into their chances: 0.090 xG per shot versus Tampa's 0.061. That quality advantage should have closed the margin. It didn't—at least not fully. New York underperformed its xG by 1.96 goals, wasting the sharp looks Dominic James and the attack manufactured.
The Lightning's collapse was sharper. Tampa Bay underperformed its xG by 3.54 goals, a chasm that included a 0-for-5 night on high-danger chances. For a team that created nine rebound opportunities, that won't sting as much as the raw shot-creation metrics suggest. Still, this was a game Tampa Bay could have won if variance had broken even.
A. Vasilevskiy held up his end, posting a 0.917 save percentage and +1.96 goals saved. He kept the Lightning in it through the third. But I. Sorokin's 3.54 goals saved above expected proved the difference. That's a goaltender who didn't just stop the puck; he rewrote a story the underlying numbers had already written.
