The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Rangers beat the Senators 4-2, but the Senators held 49% of shot attempts. The gap opened in quality, not volume: New York controlled 62% of expected goals and dominated the dangerous opportunities. Rangers generated 11 high-danger chances; the Senators managed five.
Shesterkin stopped 1.43 goals above expected, a mark earned by facing cleaner attempts than Meriläinen despite similar shot volume. Meriläinen saved 2.66 above expected, though playing in front of heavier traffic. When a goalie's variance exceeds his counterpart's despite losing, the underlying play reveals the gap.
The Senators' collapse was singular: five high-danger chances, zero conversions. That efficiency rate doesn't persist. The Rangers, meanwhile, scored across the quality spectrum—low-danger, high-danger, everywhere—the kind of opportunism that seals dominant performances.
Both teams underperformed their expected goals. The Rangers shortchanged themselves by 1.66; Ottawa by 1.43. That mutual inefficiency masked how thoroughly New York controlled the game's architecture.
Where Ottawa found footing: the rush game yielded two goals on 28 chances. The Rangers answered with four on 26 attempts, an efficiency that mirrored their night-long advantage in decision-making and execution. Neither team converted rebound opportunities, but the Rangers' dominant play elsewhere rendered that immaterial.
Three Stars
- #8 J. Miller (NYR) — 3A in 20:56
- #85 J. Sanderson (OTT) — 2A in 27:30
- #19 D. Batherson (OTT) — 1G, 1A in 23:05