The Penguins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.27–5.47 and won anyway.
The Penguins won a game they had no business winning. Tampa Bay dominated the expected-goal battle 5.47–3.27, controlling 63% of xG at 5v5 — yet Pittsburgh escaped with a 4-3 victory.
This was a triumph of goaltending and variance. T. Jarry made 37 saves on 40 shots at 0.925 SV%, stopping 2.47 goals above expected. J. Johansson made 27 saves on 31 shots at 0.871 SV%, allowing 0.73 goals above expected. That swing decided the game.
The Lightning controlled everything else. They held 56% of shot attempts (40–31 on goal) and led in high-danger chances 9–5. Tampa Bay generated 7 rebound opportunities—evidence of net-front aggression—yet converted none. They were also lethal on the rush, scoring 3 goals on 38 rush chances, but underperformed their xG by 2.47 goals.
Pittsburgh's edge came from efficiency on the rush: 4 goals on 26 rush chances. The Penguins were also dominant on the power play, scoring twice on 8 shots with 0.75 expected goals from that unit.
Evgeni Malkin provided the turning point, wrist shot from the slot in the third period at 17:17. He finished with 2 goals and 1 assist in 14:58.
