The Predators stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.85–4.66 and won anyway.
The Predators won a game the stats said they shouldn't have. Nashville edged Florida 2–1 in overtime despite the Panthers generating 4.66 expected goals to the Predators' 3.85—a 55–45 edge that should have favored Florida's way. J. Saros simply overpowered the numbers: he stopped 30 of 31 shots, posting a 0.968 save percentage and outperforming his xGA by 3.66 goals. That's the margin of victory.
The Panthers created the better chances. They controlled 52% of shot attempts (31–29 on goal) and landed 9 high-danger opportunities to Nashville's 4. But they squandered that pressure: Florida underperformed their xG by 3.66 goals, leaving clean looks unconverted. S. Bobrovsky turned in a respectable game—27 of 29 saves, a 0.931 save percentage—yet still couldn't overcome his team's wastefulness.
Nashville's path to victory was narrow. The Predators underperformed their own xG by 1.85, meaning they weren't generating grade-A chances; they won by converting what little they had. Steven Stamkos's wrist shot from the slot at 04:03 of overtime became the differentiator—the kind of clutch goal that xG models can't predict.
Both teams crashed the net with similar intensity (Florida created 9 rebound chances, Nashville 6), yet the Predators converted more of them. Puck luck and goaltending separated two evenly matched teams, with J. Saros's exceptional performance tilting the scales.
