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← Fri, Dec 5 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at NJD

Golden Knights shut out the Devils, 3-0

FinalFri, Dec 5
VGKVegas Golden Knights3NJDNew Jersey Devils0
The verdict · coin flip

The Golden Knights won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

VGK 3 · NJD 0
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:02 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils didn't lose because they played poorly—they lost because they didn't convert and Vegas got perfect goaltending. Expected goals split 2.65–2.85 in Vegas's favor, but the Devils' underlying performance suggests they should have scored. They underperformed their xG by 2.65 goals, a shortfall nearly identical to the margin of defeat. That's not being out-played; that's variance breaking the wrong way.

The underlying shape was competitive. The Devils held 49% of shot attempts and generated quality chances at 0.043 xG per shot, compared to Vegas's 0.059. Markstrom made 22 saves on 25 shots and was particularly strong on high-danger chances, stopping all five. A. Schmid (VGK) posted a 1.000 save percentage while stopping 2.65 goals above expected. One goalie stole the result.

Vegas converted what mattered. Ivan Barbashev's wrist shot from the doorstep (18:36, third period) broke the ice. The Knights were lethal on the rush—2 goals on 22 chances—and efficient on the power play, converting 2 of 6 shots at 0.30 xG. Not dominant in volume, dominant in conversion.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 5
VGK
3
NJD
0

Golden Knights shut out the Devils, 3-0

Chances 2.9 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Golden Knights took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
2.85
NJD
2.65
52% of the chances48%

The board read VGK 3, NJD 0. The chances read VGK 2.9, NJD 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
+0.1
goals above expected
VGK2.85 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
NJD2.65 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Devils left 2.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 19:47VGKS. Theodore1–0
  2. P3 15:36VGKT. HertlPP2–0
  3. P3 18:36VGKI. BarbashevPP3–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
35 shots
3
Final
73 shots
NJD
38 shots
0
VGK attackNJD attack
VGK NJD Goal
35
shots · 3 in
38
shots · 0 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKNJD
0 / 5
1.12 xG
High danger
0 / 4
0.94 xG
2 / 10
1.28 xG
Medium
0 / 11
1.20 xG
1 / 33
0.45 xG
Low
0 / 47
0.51 xG

The Devils went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
A. Schmid
+2.6
VGK · 24/24
C
J. Markstrom
−0.1
NJD · 22/25
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights shut out the Devils, 3-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 13–5
  1. 19:47VGKS. Theodore(J. Eichel, N. Hanifin)1–0
2ndshots 7–11no goals
    3rdshots 5–8
    1. 15:36VGKT. Hertlpower play(M. Marner, P. Dorofeyev)2–0
    2. 18:36VGKI. Barbashevpower play(M. Stone, J. Eichel)3–0

    score reads VGK–NJD

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.85
    VGK chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.1
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.063
    VGK puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    43.6%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.85Expected goals2.65
    VGK 52% of the chance quality
    25Shots on goal24
    5High-danger chances4
    48All attempts (Corsi)62
    Adjusted for score: VGK 41% · NJD 59%
    Faceoffs · NJD won60%off57%neu44%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK0 / 5 · 1.12 xG
    NJD0 / 4 · 0.94 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK2 / 10 · 1.28 xG
    NJD0 / 11 · 1.20 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK1 / 33 · 0.45 xG
    NJD0 / 47 · 0.51 xG

    NJD went 0-for-11 from medium danger on 1.20 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    3 G · 2.85 xG · +0.1
    NJD
    0 G · 2.65 xG · -2.6
    01234

    VGK finished +0.1 against expected, NJD -2.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    WRIST2/21
    SLAP0/3
    SNAP1/5
    TIP IN0/3
    DEFLECTED0/1
    BACKHAND0/1
    BAT0/1
    POKE0/0
    OTHER0/13
    NJD
    WRIST0/20
    SLAP0/6
    SNAP0/4
    TIP IN0/1
    DEFLECTED0/3
    BACKHAND0/3
    BAT0/0
    POKE0/1
    OTHER0/24
    VGK
    NJD
    Off the rush
    2 G on 22
    2.30 xG
    0 G on 25
    2.14 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 2
    0.35 xG
    0 G on 1
    0.15 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 2-for-21, NJD 0-for-20. VGK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Schmid
    VGK · 24/24 · 1.000
    +2.6
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/40.9+0.9
    Medium0/111.2+1.2
    Low0/470.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Markstrom
    NJD · 22/25 · .880
    -0.1
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.1+1.1
    Medium2/101.3-0.7
    Low1/330.5-0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    73 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    35 shots
    3
    Final
    73 shots
    NJD
    38 shots
    0
    VGK attackNJD attack
    VGK NJD Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Eichel
    #9 · C · VGK
    0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 20:23 on ice · +1
    S. Theodore
    #27 · D · VGK
    1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 23:12 on ice · +1
    N. Hanifin
    #15 · D · VGK
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:01 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Fri, Dec 5
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:01 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.5–2.4 Vegas score with the Golden Knights favored at 52% win probability — as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

    Vegas has the form edge, posting a 5-2-3 record over their last ten. New Jersey, meanwhile, sits at minus-7 goal differential in the same span, a warning sign that their results lag behind their play.

    The underlying numbers explain the model's tightness. Vegas controls 5v5 shot generation at 54.0% expected goals percentage against 50.0%, with a 52.0% Corsi advantage. New Jersey's possession rates (50.0% xG%, 51.0% Corsi%) barely trail, but the gap in elite scoring chances matters in a close game.

    Both teams are due for positive regression from the goal-luck angle. Vegas's 0.983 PDO sits below neutral; New Jersey's 0.971 is running cold. One or both will enjoy puck bounces.

    The wildcard is goaltending. J. Markstrom faces a back-to-back, creating the possibility of a backup appearance or an unusually tired start from the veteran.

    Tomas Hertl drives Vegas's chances at 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes, with 5 goals and 17 assists on an unsustainable 4.3% shooting percentage — not all of those will convert. Brandon Saad, who averaged 0.91 xG/60, is inactive.

    New Jersey counters with Timo Meier, who leads at 1.08 xG/60 and has cashed in at a 6.7% rate across 13 goals and 15 assists. Jack Hughes (0.88 xG/60) paces the team at 18 goals despite a shooting percentage well above league average at 11.5%, a signal he's running hot but faces positive regression risk.

    Both teams have generated an unusual 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate each, a statistical profile unlikely to sustain. Vegas's back end has weaknesses at Rasmus Andersson; New Jersey's at Johnathan Kovacevic.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 52%
    52%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    52%
    48%
    VGK50NJD

    VGK by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.4 NJD; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →NJD
    54.0%50.0%
    52.0%51.0%
    2.522.45
    2.112.50
    2.121.66
    2.102.23
    0.9830.971

    VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 0.971) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    VGK
    5-2-3
    -1 GD · 2d rest
    NJD
    4-6-0
    -7 GD · 1d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.971
    NJD PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
    Regression watch
    • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
    • J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Golden Knights are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-3 in their last 10).
    • The Devils are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    VGK
    Expected in goal
    C. Hart
    2 days rest.900 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NJD
    Expected in goal
    J. Markstrom
    back-to-back.893 last start
    Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    NJD
    Timo Meier13G 15A
    1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
    Jack Hughes18G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page