The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado had one high-danger chance. New York had seven. Colorado won 3-2 in overtime—a contradiction resolved by two facts: I. Shesterkin's elite goaltending and the Avalanche's decisive edge in shot quality.
The Avalanche controlled 65% of 5v5 expected goals (4.45–2.37). Their shot quality was the differentiator: 0.061 xG per attempt vs 0.039 for New York, a gap that reflects dominance even when shot volume barely favored Colorado (42–27 on goal). On rush chances, Colorado converted twice on 30 attempts. On high-danger looks, they couldn't convert their one chance—while Shesterkin went 100% SV against New York's seven HD attempts.
The goaltending numbers tell the story. I. Shesterkin (NYR) stopped 39 of 42 for a 0.929 SV%, but the real number is +1.45 against expected—elite performance that kept the Rangers alive. The Avalanche underperformed their own xG by the same margin, suggesting variance that, without Shesterkin's brilliance, would have been even wider. M. Blackwood (COL) was steady at 0.926 SV% on 27 shots.
Nathan MacKinnon's backhander from the high slot at 02:46 of overtime decided it—a goal that capped the Avalanche's underlying dominance.