The Ducks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Anaheim dominated the underlying play—61% expected goals and 64% shot attempts—and squeaked out a 4–3 shootout win. This scoreline undersells their control.
The Ducks converted their high-danger chances efficiently while the Capitals clawed back on elite goaltending. Mason McTavish's snap shot from the slot won it in the shootout.
Where the numbers diverged. Anaheim underperformed their expected goals by 1.5—wasted quality chances in the offensive zone. Washington compensated with exceptional performance: L. Thompson stopped 35 of 38 shots (0.921 save percentage, +1.51 goals above expected) and stole the show. V. Husso for Anaheim made 18 of 21 saves (0.857 save percentage).
Anaheim was lethal on the rush, scoring twice from 43 rush attempts. The Capitals were clinical in the high-danger zone, converting 2 of 4 chances (50%). Both teams created four rebound opportunities—Washington converted two, Anaheim none.
The shot attempts painted a starker picture: 38–21 in Anaheim's favor. Yet Thompson's performance kept the Capitals alive until the decisive moment.