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← Sat, Dec 6 · the slate
Breakdown · NJD at BOS

Bruins pull away from the Devils

FinalSat, Dec 6
NJDNew Jersey Devils1BOSBoston Bruins4
The verdict · earned

The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NJD 1 · BOS 4
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:09 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils couldn't convert their chances. They underperformed their expected goals by 1.64, scoring just once from 2.64 xG. The Bruins' 4-1 victory reflected superior execution: 59% of 5v5 expected goals (3.82–2.64) and a 60% conversion rate on high-danger chances (5 for Boston, 1 for New Jersey).

The difference was shot quality. Boston generated 0.072 expected goals per shot; New Jersey managed 0.037. The Bruins held just 42% of shot attempts (22–30 on goal) yet controlled the dangerous areas—Andrew Peeke's high-slot snap shot at 17:46 of the second period (P3) exemplified their positioning.

J. Swayman's goaltending widened the gap. He saved 1.64 goals above expected with a 0.967 save percentage (29–30). J. Allen made 18 of 21 for New Jersey (0.857 SV%), outperforming his expected performance by 0.82.

The Bruins' efficiency extended to transition play. They scored twice on 21 rush chances. The Devils generated five rebound opportunities but converted none—quality chances wasted on a night when their underlying performance didn't support the final scoreline.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 6
NJD
1
BOS
4

Bruins pull away from the Devils

Chances 2.6 – 3.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Bruins earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NJD
2.64
BOS
3.82
41% of the chances59%

The board read NJD 1, BOS 4. The chances read NJD 2.6, BOS 3.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
+0.2
goals above expected
BOS3.82 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
NJD2.64 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Devils left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 17:42BOSF. Minten0–1
  2. P1 18:39NJDT. Meier1–1
  3. P2 01:12BOSM. Geekie1–2
  4. P3 16:25BOSC. Mittelstadt1–3
  5. P3 17:46BOSA. PeekeEN1–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NJD
48 shots
1
Final
83 shots
BOS
35 shots
4
NJD attackBOS attack
NJD BOS Goal
48
shots · 1 in
35
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NJDBOS
0 / 1
0.20 xG
High danger
3 / 5
1.85 xG
1 / 14
1.71 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.44 xG
0 / 56
0.73 xG
Low
0 / 36
0.54 xG

The Bruins buried 3 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Swayman
+1.6
BOS · 29/30
B+
J. Allen
+0.8
NJD · 18/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins pull away from the Devils

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 12–5
  1. 17:42BOSF. Minten(M. Kastelic, T. Jeannot)0–1
  2. 18:39NJDT. Meier(N. Hischier, L. Hughes)1–1
2ndshots 9–4
  1. 01:12BOSM. Geekie(E. Lindholm)1–2
3rdshots 9–13
  1. 16:25BOSC. Mittelstadt(P. Zacha, V. Arvidsson)1–3
  2. 17:46BOSA. Peekeempty net1–4

score reads NJD–BOS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.82
BOS chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.2
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.061
BOS puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
42.7%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.64Expected goals3.82
BOS 59% of the chance quality
30Shots on goal22
1High-danger chances5
71All attempts (Corsi)53
Adjusted for score: NJD 60% · BOS 40%
Faceoffs · BOS won56%off60%neu53%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NJD0 / 1 · 0.20 xG
BOS3 / 5 · 1.85 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NJD1 / 14 · 1.71 xG
BOS1 / 12 · 1.44 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NJD0 / 56 · 0.73 xG
BOS0 / 36 · 0.54 xG

BOS went 3-for-5 from high danger on 1.85 expected goals — 1.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NJD
1 G · 2.64 xG · -1.6
BOS
4 G · 3.82 xG · +0.2
012345

NJD finished -1.6 against expected, BOS +0.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NJD
SNAP1/21
WRIST0/13
SLAP0/7
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED0/2
OTHER0/23
BOS
SNAP4/20
WRIST0/0
SLAP0/5
TIP IN0/7
BACKHAND0/3
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/18
NJD
BOS
Off the rush
1 G on 22
1.33 xG
2 G on 21
1.98 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 5
0.58 xG
0 G on 2
0.32 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NJD went 1-for-21, BOS 4-for-20. BOS scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Allen
NJD · 18/21 · .857
+0.8
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/51.9-1.1
Medium1/121.4+0.4
Low0/360.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Swayman
BOS · 29/30 · .967
+1.6
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/10.2+0.2
Medium1/141.7+0.7
Low0/560.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NJD
48 shots
1
Final
83 shots
BOS
35 shots
4
NJD attackBOS attack
NJD BOS Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
L. Hughes
#43 · D · NJD
0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 23:05 on ice
A. Peeke
#26 · D · BOS
1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 22:17 on ice
T. Meier
#28 · R · NJD
1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 19:43 on ice · -2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Dec 6
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:08 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects 2.6 goals for each team, leaving the Bruins at 50% win probability—a pick'em in the truest sense. Neither team has a meaningful edge in a matchup that could go either way.

But the underlying numbers hint at where the slimness of the margin comes from. New Jersey owns the play at 5v5, generating 50.0% of expected goals to Boston's 47.0%, and holding a 51.0% to 49.0% edge in Corsi. The Devils are outworking the Bruins. What's saving Boston is puck luck. The Bruins' 1.023 PDO suggests they're running hot and due for regression; the Devils' 0.971 indicates the opposite. The margin of the matchup is largely explained by this volatility gap.

Timo Meier anchors the Devils' advantage, operating at 1.08 expected goals per 60 minutes with 13 goals, 15 assists, and 3 high-danger chances. Jack Hughes provides secondary offense with 18 goals, 17 assists at 0.88 xG/60, and an 11.5% shooting rate that's outpacing his volume. Boston counters with Viktor Arvidsson, posting 18 goals and 24 assists at 1.04 xG/60—elite volume. Tanner Jeannot offers support with 6 goals and 14 assists at 0.75 xG/60.

The defensive liabilities point toward where this game is decided. Johnathan Kovacevic remains a weak spot for New Jersey's back line. For Boston, Elias Lindholm's positioning has been a recurring vulnerability. In a game this tight, one breakdown determines the outcome.

The Devils have the better process. The Bruins have better fortune behind them. That's why you can flip a coin.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

BOS 50%
50%
BOS
Model favorite
50%
50%
NJD50BOS

BOS by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 2.6–2.6 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →BOS
50.0%47.0%
51.0%49.0%
2.452.39
2.502.67
1.662.22
2.231.82
0.9711.023

NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
NJD
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
BOS
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.023
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
BOS
Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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