Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater

Breakdown · MTL at TOR

Canadiens run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

Final / OTSat, Dec 6

MTLMontreal Canadiens2 TORToronto Maple Leafs1

The verdict · earned

The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

MTL 2 · TOR 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:12 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Canadiens won 2-1 in a shootout, but the underlying numbers revealed something closer to a rout. They controlled 67% of 5v5 expected goals (3.78–1.85) and dominated the high-danger scoring chances 6-1, yet still needed Alexandre Texier's backhander in the shootout to finish the job.

Montreal generated the cleaner looks: 0.062 xG per shot versus Toronto's 0.036. The Maple Leafs held 40% of shot attempts (23–34 on goal), a margin that masks how thoroughly they were pushed around at even strength.

The real story was wasted opportunities. Montreal underperformed their xG by 1.78 goals—they left quality on the table. Toronto underperformed theirs by 0.85, a smaller miss that proved closer to their true performance.

Goaltending provided the variance. J. Dobes (Montreal) stopped 22 of 23 with a 0.957 save percentage, outperforming expected by 0.85 goals. D. Hildeby (Toronto) was the theft: 33 of 34 saves at 0.971, 2.78 goals better than expected. Hildeby kept the Leafs alive when they had no business being there, and Texier's finish in the shootout was the mercy. Montreal had the game in their hands and couldn't convert; Toronto got away.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Dec 6

MTL

TOR

Canadiens run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 3.8 – 1.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Canadiens earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

MTL

3.78

TOR

1.85

67% of the chances33%

The board read MTL 2, TOR 1. The chances read MTL 3.8, TOR 1.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

MTL

−1.8

goals above expected

MTL3.78 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

TOR1.85 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 08:25MTLC. CaufieldPP1–0
P3 10:28TORS. LaughtonSH1–1
SO 00:00MTLC. CaufieldPP1–1
SO 00:00TORA. MatthewsPP1–1
SO 00:00MTLA. TexierPP1–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

MTL

55 shots

Final

96 shots

TOR

41 shots

MTL TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

MTLTOR

1 / 6

1.58 xG

High danger

1 / 1

0.22 xG

0 / 13

1.34 xG

Medium

0 / 8

0.84 xG

0 / 42

0.87 xG

Low

0 / 42

0.79 xG

High-danger looks: MTL 1 of 6, TOR 1 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

D. Hildeby

+2.8

TOR · 33/34

B+

J. Dobes

+0.8

MTL · 22/23

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Canadiens run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–7no goals

2ndshots 14–3

08:25MTLC. Caufieldpower play(J. Slafkovský, I. Demidov)1–0

3rdshots 8–10

10:28TORS. Laughtonshorthanded(N. Roy)1–1

OTshots 3–3no goals

00:00MTLC. Caufieldpower play1–1
00:00TORA. Matthewspower play1–1
00:00MTLA. Texierpower play1–1

score reads MTL–TOR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.78

MTL chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.8

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

0.997

MTL puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

54.5%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.78Expected goals1.85

MTL 67% of the chance quality

34Shots on goal23

6High-danger chances1

61All attempts (Corsi)51

Adjusted for score: MTL 53% · TOR 47%

Faceoffs · TOR won64%off36%neu62%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

MTL1 / 6 · 1.58 xG

TOR1 / 1 · 0.22 xG

Medium dangermid-range

MTL0 / 13 · 1.34 xG

TOR0 / 8 · 0.84 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

MTL0 / 42 · 0.87 xG

TOR0 / 42 · 0.79 xG

MTL went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.34 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

MTL

2 G · 3.78 xG · -1.8

TOR

1 G · 1.85 xG · -0.8

012345

MTL finished -1.8 against expected, TOR -0.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

MTL

WRIST1/38

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND0/1

SNAP0/4

TIP IN0/1

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/8

TOR

WRIST0/27

SLAP1/4

BACKHAND0/5

SNAP0/0

TIP IN0/2

BAT0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/13

MTL

TOR

Off the rush

1 G on 29

2.40 xG

1 G on 24

1.40 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5

0.76 xG

0 G on 1

0.04 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MTL went 1-for-38, TOR 0-for-27.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Dobes

MTL · 22/23 · .957

+0.8

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/10.2-0.8

Medium0/80.8+0.8

Low0/420.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Hildeby

TOR · 33/34 · .971

+2.8

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.6+0.6

Medium0/131.3+1.3

Low0/420.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

96 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

MTL

55 shots

Final

96 shots

TOR

41 shots

MTL TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — MTL left, TOR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Slafkovský

#20 · L · MTL

0 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 21:36 on ice

C. Caufield

#13 · R · MTL

1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 21:20 on ice

I. Demidov

#93 · R · MTL

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 16:37 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Dec 6

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:11 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model sees this one as a toss-up: 2.5–2.5 game with 50% win probability either way. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find in a playoff race.

Montreal has been in freefall, sitting at -13 goal differential over their last 10 games. Yet the underlying metrics tell a different story. At 5-on-5, the Canadiens drive play, owning a 49.0% Corsi share—more shot attempts in their direction than against them. Their expected goals percentage of 48.0% to Toronto's 46.0% reinforces the pattern: Montreal is creating genuine offensive chances. Where they're running hot is PDO (1.018), a ratio of shot quality that includes both luck and team-level bounces. Regression on that front is inevitable.

Toronto is weaker by almost every territorial measure. The Maple Leafs sit at 45.0% Corsi and 46.0% xG%, the losing side of both metrics. Their PDO of 1.002 keeps them from getting lapped entirely, but the fundamentals suggest a team being outplayed more often than not. The question that could override all of this is goaltending. J. Woll is on a back-to-back, which raises the specter of either a tired starter or a backup appearance—that call will matter more than any model projection.

Players to Watch

Montreal

Cole Caufield: 0.97 xG/60, 33G 16A, 1 HD goals, 20.0% shooting
Oliver Kapanen: 0.83 xG/60, 19G 12A, 4 HD goals, 17.8% shooting

Toronto

Auston Matthews: 1.10 xG/60, 17G 13A, 1 HD goals, 10.6% shooting
John Tavares: 0.91 xG/60, 15G 24A, 3 HD goals, 12.4% shooting

Caufield's 20.0% shooting percentage looks elite in isolation but is running well ahead of his 0.97 xG/60. Regression to the mean means fewer goals in his next stretch. Matthews is the inverse—1.10 xG/60 is elite volume, but his 10.6% conversion rate is depressed for a finisher of his pedigree. He's due. Tavares is the facilitator (24 assists), setting up his linemates more than burying chances himself; Montreal's forecheck needs to account for his passing skill.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

TOR 50%

50%

TOR

Model favorite

50%

MTL50TOR

TOR by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MTL 2.5–2.5 TOR; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL← edge

edge →TOR

48.0%46.0%

49.0%45.0%

2.412.24

2.622.67

2.242.09

1.962.52

1.0181.002

MTL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.002) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

MTL

4-5-1

-13 GD · 2d rest

TOR

5-3-2

+6 GD · 1d rest

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.002

TOR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Canadiens drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Canadiens drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Woll is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Canadiens are underwater at -13 goal differential over their last 10.
The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

MTL

Expected in goal

J. Dobes

2 days rest.938 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

TOR

Expected in goal

J. Woll

back-to-back.958 last start

Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

TOR

Auston Matthews17G 13A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh

John Tavares15G 24A

0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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