The Blues won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Senators controlled this game on the scoreboard's least reliable metric — shot attempts went 68% their way, 42–20 — then lost 2-1 anyway. The underlying expected goals split showed Ottawa's dominance was real but narrow (4.32–4.02 in their favor), and the high-danger chances ran even at 6–6. Where St. Louis stole the game: goaltending and shot quality.
J. Hofer was the difference. He stopped 41 of 42 shots for a 0.976 save percentage, 3.32 goals above expected. That's not a close performance — it's the kind of night that decides close games. L. Ullmark, meanwhile, posted a 0.900 SV%, 2.02 goals above expected. Both goalies outplayed their xG models, but Hofer's margin was decisive.
The Blues understood their disadvantage and played accordingly. They took 20 shots at 0.098 expected goals per shot — translating volume into danger. Ottawa took 42 at 0.054 xG per shot, which means the Senators were generating quantity without quality. The Senators crashed the net effectively (4 rebound chances), but converted none, and finished 3.32 goals below their xG. The Blues underperformed too (2.02 below), but started from a position of efficiency.
Fabian Zetterlund's wrist shot from the slot at 15:39 of the third period stood as the turning point, a clean look that found the back of the net when the Senators had already burned their chance-creation capital.
