The Sharks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.11–3.56 and won anyway.
The Sharks beat the Hurricanes 4-1 in a game the underlying numbers said was nearly even—expected goals favored Carolina 3.56–3.11, yet San Jose won by three. A. Nedeljkovic's 0.966 save percentage explained the gap.
The Hurricanes controlled play with 56% of shot attempts (29–23 on goal) and generated 6 high-danger chances to the Sharks' 5. Analytically, Carolina was competitive. In the result, it wasn't.
Nedeljkovic was immaculate on chances that mattered. He stopped 2.56 goals above expected and denied all 6 high-danger shots, a perfect record when San Jose's net was decided in that zone. P. Kochetkov couldn't match him—he finished 19/22 (0.864 SV%) on a night the Hurricanes needed everything.
San Jose won with efficiency. The Sharks averaged 0.078 expected goals per shot compared to Carolina's 0.042—a reflection of their higher-quality looks. On the rush, they were lethal: 2 goals on 22 chances. In the high-danger area, they converted 60% (3 of 5) while Carolina got nothing (0 of 6).
That cold streak for the Hurricanes—zero goals on six prime looks—is variance that won't repeat often. But on this night, they crashed the net and created 4 rebound opportunities without finish. The Sharks did.
M. Celebrini punctuated the dominance in his limited role, registering 1 goal and 2 assists in 18:12. His wrist shot from the doorstep in the third period marked the game's turning point. J. Klingberg (1G, 1A in 18:43) and A. Wennberg (1G, 1A in 18:36) formed the third-line finishers.
