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← Sun, Dec 7 · the slate
Breakdown · PIT at DAL

Stars edge the Penguins in a shootout

Final / OTSun, Dec 7
PITPittsburgh Penguins2DALDallas Stars3
The verdict · coin flip

The Stars won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

PIT 2 · DAL 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:31 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas overwhelmed Pittsburgh in underlying metrics—high-danger chances 8-4, expected goals 3.90-3.65—yet needed a shootout to separate from a Penguins team that rode T. Jarry's stellar play and scored on the rush.

The Stars controlled quality despite being outshot 29-23. Dallas generated 0.071 expected goals per shot versus Pittsburgh's 0.053—a gap that should have buried the Penguins. Both teams badly underperformed their models: Dallas by 0.90 goals, Pittsburgh by 1.65. But T. Jarry saved 1.9 goals above expected, and Pittsburgh scored on the rush (2 goals from 27 attempts), staying dangerous despite inferior chances.

Dallas wasted all 8 high-danger attempts, then only broke through when Mikko Rantanen's shootout snap shot from the high slot finally solved the Penguins.

Goaltending. T. Jarry (PIT) made 21 of 23 saves at 0.913 SV%, 1.9 goals above expected—the main reason Pittsburgh nearly escaped. J. Oettinger (DAL) posted 27 of 29 at 0.931 SV%, 1.65 above expected, and was excellent in his own right.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Dec 7
PIT
2
DAL
3

Stars edge the Penguins in a shootout

Chances 3.6 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Stars took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
PIT
3.65
DAL
3.90
48% of the chances52%

The board read PIT 2, DAL 3. The chances read PIT 3.6, DAL 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
−0.9
goals above expected
DAL3.90 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
PIT3.65 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Penguins left 1.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 18:18PITC. Dewar1–0
  2. P2 01:27DALJ. Benn1–1
  3. P2 05:56PITT. Novak2–1
  4. P3 18:11DALM. HeiskanenPP2–2
  5. SO 00:00DALM. RantanenPP2–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
PIT
51 shots
2
Final
89 shots
DAL
38 shots
3
PIT attackDAL attack
PIT DAL Goal
51
shots · 2 in
38
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
PITDAL
0 / 4
1.06 xG
High danger
0 / 8
1.89 xG
2 / 18
1.91 xG
Medium
1 / 14
1.58 xG
0 / 47
0.67 xG
Low
1 / 33
0.44 xG

The Penguins went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
T. Jarry
+1.9
PIT · 21/23
A
J. Oettinger
+1.6
DAL · 27/29
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Stars edge the Penguins in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–7
  1. 18:18PITC. Dewar(B. Lizotte, N. Acciari)1–0
2ndshots 11–3
  1. 01:27DALJ. Benn(R. Hintz, J. Robertson)1–1
  2. 05:56PITT. Novak(K. Letang, S. Crosby)2–1
3rdshots 9–9
  1. 18:11DALM. Heiskanenpower play(W. Johnston, M. Rantanen)2–2
OTshots 2–4no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00DALM. Rantanenpower play2–2

    score reads PIT–DAL

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.90
    DAL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.9
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.007
    DAL puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    44.4%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.65Expected goals3.90
    DAL 52% of the chance quality
    29Shots on goal23
    4High-danger chances8
    69All attempts (Corsi)55
    Adjusted for score: PIT 54% · DAL 46%
    Faceoffs · DAL won22%off67%neu57%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    PIT0 / 4 · 1.06 xG
    DAL0 / 8 · 1.89 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    PIT2 / 18 · 1.91 xG
    DAL1 / 14 · 1.58 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    PIT0 / 47 · 0.67 xG
    DAL1 / 33 · 0.44 xG

    DAL went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.89 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    PIT
    2 G · 3.65 xG · -1.6
    DAL
    3 G · 3.90 xG · -0.9
    012345

    PIT finished -1.6 against expected, DAL -0.9.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    PIT
    SNAP0/22
    SLAP1/10
    TIP IN1/9
    BACKHAND0/3
    WRIST0/4
    OTHER0/21
    DAL
    SNAP1/22
    SLAP1/5
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/3
    WRIST0/1
    OTHER0/20
    PIT
    DAL
    Off the rush
    2 G on 27
    2.33 xG
    1 G on 27
    2.92 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 4
    0.62 xG
    0 G on 2
    0.25 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: PIT went 0-for-22, DAL 1-for-22. PIT scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    T. Jarry
    PIT · 21/23 · .913
    +1.9
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/81.9+1.9
    Medium1/141.6+0.6
    Low1/330.4-0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Oettinger
    DAL · 27/29 · .931
    +1.6
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/41.1+1.1
    Medium2/181.9-0.1
    Low0/470.7+0.7

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    89 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    PIT
    51 shots
    2
    Final
    89 shots
    DAL
    38 shots
    3
    PIT attackDAL attack
    PIT DAL Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — PIT left, DAL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    M. Heiskanen
    #4 · D · DAL
    1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 27:57 on ice
    W. Johnston
    #53 · C · DAL
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:39 on ice
    K. Letang
    #58 · D · PIT
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:36 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sun, Dec 7
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:29 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    Dallas owns a 52% win probability, according to the model, in what projects as a 2.5–2.6 game. In other words: flip a coin.

    The Stars earned that toss-up by posting a 7–1–2 record in their last ten, while Pittsburgh has cooled. But Dallas's run may not hold up to scrutiny. The Stars' PDO of 1.024 sits well above sustainable levels, suggesting some regression ahead. Pittsburgh's luck metric sits at 1.012, marginally healthier. Both teams generate the same expected-goal share at 5v5—51.0% each—but the Penguins own the territorial edge: 50.0% Corsi to Dallas's 47.0%. That's not a dominance margin, but it's the kind of structural advantage that compounds over time.

    Goaltending becomes critical. J. Oettinger faces a back-to-back schedule, which means either a backup start or a starter running on fumes—watch the pre-game skate for answers.

    Pittsburgh's offense centers on Rickard Rakell, who generates 1.01 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5 and has converted at 12.1% (13 goals, 13 assists). Filip Hallander, previously a 1.28 xG/60 threat, is unavailable due to injury, removing a secondary playmaker.

    Dallas counters with Jason Robertson, who has scored 25 goals and 21 assists despite an 0.96 expected-goal rate per 60 minutes and just 2 high-danger goals. Michael Bunting, with 8 goals and 14 assists, generates only 0.83 expected goals per 60 minutes on a 7.6% shooting rate, making him a complementary threat at best.

    Defensively, Dallas will probe Pittsburgh's weak link in Caleb Jones, while the Penguins should target Tyler Myers on the other end.

    The model favors Dallas slightly because its recent surge is real, even if the underlying metrics don't justify it fully. The Penguins hold the structural edge in possession but trail in momentum. This is as close as the league gets to a genuine coin flip.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    DAL 52%
    52%
    DAL
    Model favorite
    48%
    52%
    PIT50DAL

    DAL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score PIT 2.5–2.6 DAL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    PIT← edge
    edge →DAL
    51.0%51.0%
    50.0%47.0%
    2.662.36
    2.552.29
    2.452.07
    2.121.68
    1.0121.024

    The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.012 vs 1.024) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    PIT
    5-3-2
    -1 GD · 2d rest
    DAL
    7-1-2
    +17 GD · 1d rest
    1.012
    PIT PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.024
    DAL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • J. Oettinger is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Stars are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    PIT
    Expected in goal
    T. Jarry
    2 days rest.925 last start
    Backup Stuart Skinner · +8.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    DAL
    Expected in goal
    J. Oettinger
    back-to-back.941 last start
    Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    PIT
    Filip Hallander0G 3A
    1.28 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh
    Rickard Rakell13G 13A
    1.01 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.1% sh
    DAL
    Jason Robertson25G 21A
    0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
    Michael Bunting8G 14A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page