Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater

Breakdown · VGK at NYR

Golden Knights edge the Rangers in overtime

Final / OTSun, Dec 7

VGKVegas Golden Knights3 NYRNew York Rangers2

The verdict · coin flip

The Golden Knights won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

VGK 3 · NYR 2

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:22 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Vegas net was tighter than the scoreboard suggested. Expected goals called it nearly even (3.27–3.23 for the Rangers), yet the Golden Knights won 3-2 in overtime on J. Eichel's wrist shot at 04:52—a result that hinged entirely on execution in the danger zones.

The Rangers generated far superior chances: 0.071 expected goals per shot versus Vegas's 0.045. They had six high-danger opportunities. They converted zero. That's not a systematic problem; that's a bad night at the net. C. Hart, meanwhile, stopped every high-danger chance he faced (6 for 6) and finished +1.27 goals above his expected performance.

Shot attempts favored Vegas 28-24, but the Rangers held 46% of the possession battle despite trailing on the scoreboard—a sign of how effectively they were maneuvering in Vegas's zone. Yet they left 1.27 goals of expected value on the ice.

The difference: C. Hart stopped every dangerous chance. The Rangers did not. When the underlying metrics call a game nearly even, goaltending wins it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Dec 7

VGK

NYR

Golden Knights edge the Rangers in overtime

Chances 3.2 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Golden Knights took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

3.23

NYR

3.27

50% of the chances50%

The board read VGK 3, NYR 2. The chances read VGK 3.2, NYR 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

VGK

−0.2

goals above expected

VGK3.23 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

NYR3.27 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 00:36VGKB. Howden1–0
P2 09:08NYRM. Zibanejad1–1
P2 13:01NYRA. Lafrenière1–2
P3 19:08VGKT. HertlPP2–2
OT 04:52VGKJ. Eichel3–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

47 shots

Final

82 shots

NYR

35 shots

VGK NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKNYR

1 / 5

1.04 xG

High danger

0 / 6

1.24 xG

2 / 13

1.49 xG

Medium

2 / 13

1.63 xG

0 / 53

0.69 xG

Low

0 / 27

0.40 xG

The Rangers went 0 for 6 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

C. Hart

+1.3

VGK · 22/24

J. Quick

+0.2

NYR · 25/28

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Golden Knights edge the Rangers in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–4

00:36VGKB. Howden(M. Marner, M. Stone)1–0

2ndshots 5–16

09:08NYRM. Zibanejad(A. Lafrenière, M. Robertson)1–1
13:01NYRA. Lafrenière(M. Zibanejad, A. Panarin)1–2

3rdshots 13–3

19:08VGKT. Hertlpower play(M. Stone, J. Eichel)2–2

OTshots 2–1

04:52VGKJ. Eichel(S. Theodore, B. Howden)3–2

score reads VGK–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.23

VGK chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.2

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

0.999

VGK puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

60.7%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.23Expected goals3.27

NYR 50% of the chance quality

28Shots on goal24

5High-danger chances6

71All attempts (Corsi)46

Adjusted for score: VGK 60% · NYR 40%

Faceoffs · NYR won41%off40%neu59%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK1 / 5 · 1.04 xG

NYR0 / 6 · 1.24 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK2 / 13 · 1.49 xG

NYR2 / 13 · 1.63 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK0 / 53 · 0.69 xG

NYR0 / 27 · 0.40 xG

NYR went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.24 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

3 G · 3.23 xG · -0.2

NYR

2 G · 3.27 xG · -1.3

01234

VGK finished -0.2 against expected, NYR -1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

WRIST2/26

SLAP0/10

BACKHAND1/4

TIP IN0/4

SNAP0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/24

NYR

WRIST1/26

SLAP0/1

BACKHAND1/5

TIP IN0/3

SNAP0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/11

VGK

NYR

Off the rush

1 G on 26

2.11 xG

1 G on 21

2.10 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 4

0.55 xG

1 G on 2

0.28 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 2-for-26, NYR 1-for-26.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Hart

VGK · 22/24 · .917

+1.3

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/61.2+1.2

Medium2/131.6-0.4

Low0/270.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Quick

NYR · 25/28 · .893

+0.2

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.0+0.0

Medium2/131.5-0.5

Low0/530.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

47 shots

Final

82 shots

NYR

35 shots

VGK NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Eichel

#9 · C · VGK

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 23:00 on ice · +1

M. Stone

#61 · R · VGK

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 19:19 on ice · +1

M. Zibanejad

#93 · C · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 18:51 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Dec 7

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:30 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model calls this essentially even: Golden Knights win at 53% probability, with a projected score line of 2.5-2.3 Vegas. There's no edge here—only a coin flip that happens to land on the Golden Knights' side.

Vegas owns the underlying play by a clear margin. The Golden Knights are generating 54.0% of expected goals at even strength versus the Rangers' 48.0%, while also controlling territorial position at 52.0% Corsi percentage to New York's 49.0%. These are meaningful advantages, yet not so vast that they guarantee a result.

The catch: Vegas is running ice-cold. A 0.983 PDO means the team is converting chances at below-average rates and facing above-average goaltending luck. It's the kind of number that begs for positive regression. The Rangers' 1.009 PDO tells the opposite story—they're beating the odds and due for a correction downward.

Both teams face the same structural problem: goaltending. I. Shesterkin is on a back-to-back for New York, while A. Schmid operates under identical circumstances for Vegas. Either could cede the net to a backup, or both could start exhausted. This is the variance no model can predict.

Vegas's weapon is Brandon Saad, though injury status clouds his availability (likely out). When healthy, Saad generates 0.91 xG/60 and carries a 4.1% shooting rate despite three goals and six assists. Tomas Hertl is more consistent: 0.88 xG/60, five goals, seventeen assists, and a 4.3% shooting rate suggest he's hitting his ceiling. Stopping Hertl requires focus; Saad's absence actually simplifies New York's job.

The Rangers counter with Adam Sykora, who generates 0.91 xG/60 on a 20.0% shooting rate—3 goals and 1 assist so far, a pace that won't hold. Gabe Perreault presents a deeper threat: 0.79 xG/60 with eight goals and eleven assists, including two high-danger goals. His 13.1% shooting rate suggests he's genuinely dangerous, not a mirage.

A close projection that favors Vegas slightly. The underlying play backs it. The goaltending uncertainty undermines certainty. Take your side, but don't invest heavily—everything about this game says one goal decides it.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 53%

53%

VGK

Model favorite

53%

47%

VGK50NYR

VGK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.3 NYR; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →NYR

54.0%48.0%

52.0%49.0%

2.522.26

2.112.40

2.121.88

2.101.90

0.9831.009

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.009) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

5-2-3

-1 GD · 1d rest

NYR

5-4-1

+1 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
I. Shesterkin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
A. Schmid is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Schmid

back-to-back1.000 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

back-to-back.929 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page