J. Greaves stole the show. The Blue Jackets goalie saved 5.1 goals above expected, a performance that obscured how thoroughly Washington dominated the 5v5 play.

Washington held 63% of expected goals (6.09–3.62) and high-danger chances 12–5. Aliaksei Protas's wrist shot from the wing (P3, 18:34) was the breakthrough moment. On paper, the Capitals were in control.

But they underperformed their chances by 4.1 goals. Greaves stopped 36 of 37 shots at 0.973 SV%, including a 92% save rate on 12 high-danger chances—a wall that kept Columbus scoreless despite heavy dominance from the other end. L. Thompson, meanwhile, was perfect: 39 of 39 (1.000 SV%), a luxury he could afford given the volume of chances his defense generated.

Columbus generated far fewer looks—0.056 xG per shot to Washington's 0.092—and couldn't convert their limited chances. Zero goals on five high-danger attempts. Greaves saved this team.

The model projects a 2.6–2.7 scoring line with Washington at exactly 50% win probability—a definition of a pick'em.

Washington's form is crisp: they've gone 8-1-1 over their last 10 games. Columbus, by contrast, has posted a -6 goal differential in the same stretch, suggesting their recent results flatter them slightly.

The underlying metrics tell a closer story. Columbus generates 52.0% expected goals at 5v5 and dominates shot attempts with 51.0% Corsi—marginal edges that hint at structural superiority. Washington sits at 50.0% xG% and 49.0% Corsi%. Where Washington's edge emerges is in conversion: their PDO of 1.018 versus Columbus's 1.003 means they've been luckier. That 1.018 is hot enough to regress.

Both L. Thompson and E. Merzlikins face back-to-back scenarios, which may trigger a backup appearance or deploy a tired starter.

Players to Watch

Columbus: Boone Jenner carries 11 goals and 21 assists with a 0.98 xG/60 rate and 2 high-danger goals on 9.6% shooting—the primary neutralization target. Mathieu Olivier trails at 0.89 xG/60 but lands 12 goals with 1 high-danger goal on a searing 13.3% shooting rate.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin leads with 19 goals and 17 assists, 0.97 xG/60, and 2 high-danger goals on 13.8% shooting. Anthony Beauvillier follows at 0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 2 high-danger goals, and 10.4% shooting.

Both teams sit at 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate, indicating neither has developed secondary scoring. Columbus's defensive liability is Conor Garland; Washington's is Declan Chisholm. The margin of victory will turn on who exposes those vulnerabilities first.