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← Sun, Dec 7 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at WSH

Capitals shut out the Blue Jackets, 2-0

FinalSun, Dec 7
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets0WSHWashington Capitals2
The verdict · earned

The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 0 · WSH 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:30 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

J. Greaves stole the show. The Blue Jackets goalie saved 5.1 goals above expected, a performance that obscured how thoroughly Washington dominated the 5v5 play.

Washington held 63% of expected goals (6.09–3.62) and high-danger chances 12–5. Aliaksei Protas's wrist shot from the wing (P3, 18:34) was the breakthrough moment. On paper, the Capitals were in control.

But they underperformed their chances by 4.1 goals. Greaves stopped 36 of 37 shots at 0.973 SV%, including a 92% save rate on 12 high-danger chances—a wall that kept Columbus scoreless despite heavy dominance from the other end. L. Thompson, meanwhile, was perfect: 39 of 39 (1.000 SV%), a luxury he could afford given the volume of chances his defense generated.

Columbus generated far fewer looks—0.056 xG per shot to Washington's 0.092—and couldn't convert their limited chances. Zero goals on five high-danger attempts. Greaves saved this team.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 7
CBJ
0
WSH
2

Capitals shut out the Blue Jackets, 2-0

Chances 3.6 – 6.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Capitals earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
3.62
WSH
6.09
37% of the chances63%

The board read CBJ 0, WSH 2. The chances read CBJ 3.6, WSH 6.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
−4.1
goals above expected
WSH6.09 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ3.62 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blue Jackets left 3.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 00:50WSHJ. Chychrun0–1
  2. P3 18:34WSHA. ProtasEN0–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
51 shots
0
Final
108 shots
WSH
57 shots
2
CBJ attackWSH attack
CBJ WSH Goal
51
shots · 0 in
57
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJWSH
0 / 5
1.18 xG
High danger
1 / 12
3.50 xG
0 / 17
1.70 xG
Medium
0 / 20
1.96 xG
0 / 42
0.74 xG
Low
1 / 34
0.64 xG

The Blue Jackets went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Greaves
+5.1
CBJ · 36/37
A+
L. Thompson
+3.6
WSH · 39/39
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals shut out the Blue Jackets, 2-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 12–9no goals
    2ndshots 11–19
    1. 00:50WSHJ. Chychrun(T. Wilson, A. Beauvillier)0–1
    3rdshots 16–10
    1. 18:34WSHA. Protasempty net(M. Fehérváry)0–2

    score reads CBJ–WSH

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    6.09
    WSH chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −4.1
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.030
    WSH puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    50.8%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.62Expected goals6.09
    WSH 63% of the chance quality
    39Shots on goal38
    5High-danger chances12
    64All attempts (Corsi)66
    Adjusted for score: CBJ 52% · WSH 48%
    Faceoffs · WSH won52%off56%neu52%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    CBJ0 / 5 · 1.18 xG
    WSH1 / 12 · 3.50 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    CBJ0 / 17 · 1.70 xG
    WSH0 / 20 · 1.96 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    CBJ0 / 42 · 0.74 xG
    WSH1 / 34 · 0.64 xG

    WSH went 1-for-12 from high danger on 3.50 expected goals — 2.5 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    CBJ
    0 G · 3.62 xG · -3.6
    WSH
    2 G · 6.09 xG · -4.1
    01234567

    CBJ finished -3.6 against expected, WSH -4.1.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    CBJ
    SNAP0/30
    WRIST0/7
    SLAP0/8
    TIP IN0/2
    BACKHAND0/4
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/13
    WSH
    SNAP1/25
    WRIST1/14
    SLAP0/5
    TIP IN0/9
    BACKHAND0/2
    DEFLECTED0/2
    OTHER0/9
    CBJ
    WSH
    Off the rush
    0 G on 32
    2.40 xG
    1 G on 31
    3.54 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 5
    0.78 xG
    0 G on 7
    1.00 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: CBJ went 0-for-30, WSH 1-for-25.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Greaves
    CBJ · 36/37 · .973
    +5.1
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/123.5+2.5
    Medium0/202.0+2.0
    Low1/340.6-0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    L. Thompson
    WSH · 39/39 · 1.000
    +3.6
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.2+1.2
    Medium0/171.7+1.7
    Low0/420.7+0.7

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    108 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    CBJ
    51 shots
    0
    Final
    108 shots
    WSH
    57 shots
    2
    CBJ attackWSH attack
    CBJ WSH Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Chychrun
    #6 · D · WSH
    1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 23:46 on ice · +1
    M. Fehérváry
    #42 · D · WSH
    0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 20:23 on ice · +1
    T. Wilson
    #43 · R · WSH
    0 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 19:31 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sun, Dec 7
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:29 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.6–2.7 scoring line with Washington at exactly 50% win probability—a definition of a pick'em.

    Washington's form is crisp: they've gone 8-1-1 over their last 10 games. Columbus, by contrast, has posted a -6 goal differential in the same stretch, suggesting their recent results flatter them slightly.

    The underlying metrics tell a closer story. Columbus generates 52.0% expected goals at 5v5 and dominates shot attempts with 51.0% Corsi—marginal edges that hint at structural superiority. Washington sits at 50.0% xG% and 49.0% Corsi%. Where Washington's edge emerges is in conversion: their PDO of 1.018 versus Columbus's 1.003 means they've been luckier. That 1.018 is hot enough to regress.

    Both L. Thompson and E. Merzlikins face back-to-back scenarios, which may trigger a backup appearance or deploy a tired starter.

    Players to Watch

    Columbus: Boone Jenner carries 11 goals and 21 assists with a 0.98 xG/60 rate and 2 high-danger goals on 9.6% shooting—the primary neutralization target. Mathieu Olivier trails at 0.89 xG/60 but lands 12 goals with 1 high-danger goal on a searing 13.3% shooting rate.

    Washington: Alex Ovechkin leads with 19 goals and 17 assists, 0.97 xG/60, and 2 high-danger goals on 13.8% shooting. Anthony Beauvillier follows at 0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 2 high-danger goals, and 10.4% shooting.

    Both teams sit at 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate, indicating neither has developed secondary scoring. Columbus's defensive liability is Conor Garland; Washington's is Declan Chisholm. The margin of victory will turn on who exposes those vulnerabilities first.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    WSH 51%
    50%
    WSH
    Model favorite
    50%
    50%
    CBJ50WSH

    WSH by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 2.6–2.7 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ← edge
    edge →WSH
    52.0%50.0%
    51.0%49.0%
    2.632.62
    2.432.62
    2.122.18
    1.981.79
    1.0031.018

    CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    CBJ
    4-2-4
    -6 GD · 1d rest
    WSH
    8-1-1
    +22 GD · 1d rest
    1.003
    CBJ PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • E. Merzlikins is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Capitals are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 in their last 10).
    • The Blue Jackets are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    CBJ
    Expected in goal
    E. Merzlikins
    back-to-back.825 last start
    Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    WSH
    Expected in goal
    L. Thompson
    back-to-back.921 last start
    Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ
    Boone Jenner11G 21A
    0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
    Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page