Motion-blurred skater in a Anaheim Ducks sweater
Breakdown · CHI at ANA

Ducks run the Blackhawks off the ice on the underlying numbers

The verdict · earned

The Ducks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CHI 1 · ANA 7
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:32 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Anaheim's 7–1 victory masked an even more complete dominance: the Ducks controlled 86% of expected goals (6.41–1.08), a gulf that actual goals barely captured.

The Blackhawks never got the quality looks their shot total suggested. They fired 20 shots but generated just 1.08 expected goals—a rate of 0.032 xG per shot. Anaheim, meanwhile, rifled 53 shots at a devastating 0.074 xG per shot, tripling Chicago's efficiency. That chasm—quality over quantity—is why goals skewed so extreme.

High-danger chances told an even starker story: 12–0. The Ducks created chances the Blackhawks couldn't manufacture. They were lethal rushing, converting six goals from 45 rush attempts. The power play added another layer of dominance, scoring twice on 15 shots with 1.78 expected goals behind it.

A. Soderblom (CHI) faced an impossible task, posting a 0.868 save percentage that still underperformed expectations by 0.59 goals—a goalie surrendering inevitable outcomes. V. Husso (ANA) needed only to stay clean, stopping 19 of 20 at 0.950 SV%.

The Ducks buried three low-danger goals that any goaltender should stop, then added four more from the premium areas. That's not luck; that's execution against a defense giving up second-chance opportunities. Anaheim crashed the net with purpose, converting one of eight rebound chances but creating the chaos that forces mistakes.

Chicago generated pockets of danger—their limited offensive looks were higher-quality than their volume suggested—but it didn't matter. When one team controls the game this decisively, marginal performances don't survive.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 7
CHI
1
ANA
7

Ducks run the Blackhawks off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 1.1 – 6.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Ducks earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CHI
1.08
ANA
6.41
14% of the chances86%

The board read CHI 1, ANA 7. The chances read CHI 1.1, ANA 6.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
ANA
+0.6
goals above expected
ANA6.41 expected · 7 scored
Expected
Scored
CHI1.08 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 10:16ANAJ. Trouba0–1
  2. P2 06:40ANAM. McTavishPP0–2
  3. P2 09:26ANAB. Sennecke0–3
  4. P2 16:09ANAA. Killorn0–4
  5. P2 17:23ANAL. Carlsson0–5
  6. P3 00:15ANAL. CarlssonPP0–6
  7. P3 01:40CHIT. BertuzziPP1–6
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CHI
25 shots
1
Final
97 shots
ANA
72 shots
7
CHI attackANA attack
CHI ANA Goal
25
shots · 1 in
72
shots · 7 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CHIANA
0 / 0
0.00 xG
High danger
3 / 12
2.90 xG
1 / 4
0.42 xG
Medium
1 / 22
2.44 xG
0 / 30
0.66 xG
Low
3 / 53
1.07 xG

The Ducks buried 3 of 12 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
C
V. Husso
+0.1
ANA · 19/20
D
A. Soderblom
−0.6
CHI · 46/53
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Ducks run the Blackhawks off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–17
  1. 10:16ANAJ. Trouba0–1
2ndshots 7–27
  1. 06:40ANAM. McTavishpower play(B. Sennecke, C. Gauthier)0–2
  2. 09:26ANAB. Sennecke(C. Gauthier, R. Gudas)0–3
  3. 16:09ANAA. Killorn(R. Strome, P. Mintyukov)0–4
  4. 17:23ANAL. Carlsson(C. Kreider, T. Terry)0–5
3rdshots 7–9
  1. 00:15ANAL. Carlssonpower play(C. Kreider, J. LaCombe)0–6
  2. 01:40CHIT. Bertuzzipower play(C. Bedard, A. Levshunov)1–6
  3. 18:08ANAF. Vatrano(O. Zellweger, R. Strome)1–7

score reads CHI–ANA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
6.41
ANA chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.6
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.051
ANA puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
71.9%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.08Expected goals6.41
ANA 86% of the chance quality
20Shots on goal53
0High-danger chances12
34All attempts (Corsi)87
Adjusted for score: CHI 32% · ANA 68%
Faceoffs · ANA won77%off31%neu40%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CHI0 / 0 · 0.00 xG
ANA3 / 12 · 2.90 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CHI1 / 4 · 0.42 xG
ANA1 / 22 · 2.44 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CHI0 / 30 · 0.66 xG
ANA3 / 53 · 1.07 xG

ANA went 3-for-53 from low danger on 1.07 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CHI
1 G · 1.08 xG · -0.1
ANA
7 G · 6.41 xG · +0.6
012345678

CHI finished -0.1 against expected, ANA +0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CHI
SNAP1/14
WRIST0/6
TIP IN0/2
SLAP0/2
BACKHAND0/0
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/9
ANA
SNAP4/18
WRIST2/22
TIP IN0/14
SLAP1/11
BACKHAND0/7
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/15
CHI
ANA
Off the rush
1 G on 16
0.76 xG
6 G on 45
4.14 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 1
0.03 xG
1 G on 8
1.30 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: CHI went 1-for-14, ANA 4-for-18. ANA scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
A. Soderblom
CHI · 46/53 · .868
-0.6
saved above expected
D
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/122.9-0.1
Medium1/222.4+1.4
Low3/531.1-1.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

V. Husso
ANA · 19/20 · .950
+0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
Medium1/40.4-0.6
Low0/300.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

97 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CHI
25 shots
1
Final
97 shots
ANA
72 shots
7
CHI attackANA attack
CHI ANA Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CHI left, ANA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
L. Carlsson
#91 · C · ANA
2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 18:58 on ice · +1
C. Kreider
#20 · L · ANA
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 18:37 on ice · +2
B. Sennecke
#45 · R · ANA
1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 15:39 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Dec 7
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:29 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4–3.0 Chicago loss, pricing Anaheim at 60% win probability. The edge is genuine: the Ducks control territory and generate scoring chances at a scale that compounds over a full game.

Anaheim owns 52.0% of expected goals at 5v5 against Chicago's 42.0%. Their Corsi rate of 52.0% confirms it's not a fluke—they will dictate play. Chicago will be chasing for long stretches, which is unsustainable against a team with Anaheim's offensive depth.

The wrinkle: Anaheim's PDO of 0.981 means they're finishing chances below league average. The model assumes positive regression here. Chicago's PDO of 0.996 is closer to neutral, so the convergence favors the Ducks even if actual shot quality merely tracks the model's estimates.

V. Husso on a back-to-back is worth monitoring. Whether he starts or a backup gets the call, Chicago's depth in net will face volume.

Beckett Sennecke leads Anaheim's attack at 1.03 xG/60 with 20 goals and 8 high-danger tallies. Cutter Gauthier (25G, 0.99 xG/60) is the secondary engine—a high-volume scorer who amplifies regression when the team is running cold. For Chicago, Connor Bedard generates at 0.82 xG/60 with 17 goals and 27 assists, but his 11.8% shooting rate inflates those numbers; expect regression the other way. Tyler Bertuzzi (20G, 0.85 xG/60, 18.0% shooting) is the leverage point—elevated finish rate that Chicago needs to hold.

The model's lean on Anaheim is sound, but the Ducks must convert at normalized rates. If regression hits as the model assumes, this becomes a rout.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

ANA 60%
60%
ANA
Model favorite
40%
60%
CHI50ANA

ANA by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CHI 2.4–3.0 ANA; 17% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CHI← edge
edge →ANA
42.0%52.0%
46.0%52.0%
2.172.80
2.942.59
1.842.09
2.412.32
0.9960.981

ANA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 0.981) says CHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CHI
4-4-2
-4 GD · 2d rest
ANA
6-4-0
-3 GD · 1d rest
0.996
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.981
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Ducks own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
  • The Ducks drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Ducks own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
  • The Ducks drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • V. Husso is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CHI
Expected in goal
S. Knight
2 days rest.963 last start
Backup Spencer Knight · +10.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

ANA
Expected in goal
V. Husso
back-to-back.857 last start
Backup Lukas Dostal · -2.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi20G 15A
0.85 xG/60 · 7 HD · 18.0% sh
Connor Bedard17G 27A
0.82 xG/60 · 5 HD · 11.8% sh
ANA
Beckett Sennecke20G 19A
1.03 xG/60 · 8 HD · 13.5% sh
Cutter Gauthier25G 16A
0.99 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.9% sh
Keep going

Where to next