The Lightning stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.94–4.15 and won anyway.
The Lightning beat the Devils 8-4 in a game that exposed the difference between dominating possession metrics and converting them into goals. New Jersey controlled 58% of expected goals to 42%, but Tampa's finishing was clinical while the Devils' goaltending collapsed.
The variance was brutal. The xG line was 4.15 to 2.94—a significant advantage for New Jersey that simply didn't translate to wins. J. Markstrom gave up four goals on seven shots (0.571 SV%), underperforming his expected result by 2.41 goals. J. Allen wasn't much better on 28 attempts at 0.821 SV%, another 2.65 goals worse than expected. J. Johansson, meanwhile, stopped 33 of 37 for the Lightning at 0.892.
Where Tampa capitalized: the Lightning scored three goals from low-danger areas where opposing goaltenders should routinely make saves. New Jersey created seven rebound chances and converted zero. The home team managed clinical efficiency on the rush (4 goals on 24 chances), but the Lightning were even better (6 on 24).
Oliver Bjorkstrand scored the turning point—a wrist shot from the doorstep in the third period—and finished with two goals and an assist. N. Kucherov orchestrated with four assists in 16:12, while J. Guentzel added a goal and two assists.
The Devils were clinical where they needed to be: 3 of 7 in high-danger chances (43%). The Lightning matched them there (2 of 5, 40%) and then found three goals in low-danger spots. That's the game distilled: New Jersey owned the expected-goals battle; Tampa won everywhere it mattered.
