Motion-blurred skater in a Nashville Predators sweater

Breakdown · STL at NSH

Predators run the Blues off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalThu, Dec 11

STLSt. Louis Blues2 NSHNashville Predators7

The verdict · earned

The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

STL 2 · NSH 7

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:01 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Nashville demolished St. Louis 7-2, yet J. Hofer (STL) saved 3.4 goals above expected in the losing effort—an anomaly amid the Predators' total control.

The dominance was comprehensive. Nashville held 68% of 5v5 expected goals (4.44–2.09) and generated 0.079 xG per shot to St. Louis's 0.043, finishing 6-2 in high-danger chances. S. Stamkos led with 4 goals in 16:42; L. Evangelista contributed 3 assists in 18:32. Michael Bunting's tip-in from the doorstep (P3, 07:36) was the turning point.

The Predators also dominated transition, converting 4 goals on 23 rush chances and creating 9 rebound opportunities (3 converted). St. Louis managed 2 rush goals on 24 chances.

Nashville overperformed their xG by 2.56 goals. J. Binnington (STL) went the opposite direction, giving up 2.53 more than expected on a 0.760 SV%. J. Saros (NSH) stopped 24 of 26 shots (0.923 SV%).

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 11

STL

NSH

Predators run the Blues off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.1 – 4.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Predators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

STL

2.09

NSH

4.44

32% of the chances68%

The board read STL 2, NSH 7. The chances read STL 2.1, NSH 4.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NSH

+2.6

goals above expected

NSH4.44 expected · 7 scored

Expected

Scored

STL2.09 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Predators scored 2.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 08:22NSHS. Stamkos0–1
P1 11:19NSHS. Stamkos0–2
P2 04:17STLH. McGing1–2
P2 08:38NSHR. O'Reilly1–3
P2 11:43NSHF. Forsberg1–4
P2 12:06NSHS. Stamkos1–5
P2 13:56STLR. Thomas2–5

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

STL

32 shots

Final

76 shots

NSH

44 shots

STL NSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 7 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

STLNSH

1 / 2

0.45 xG

High danger

2 / 6

1.80 xG

1 / 11

1.12 xG

Medium

5 / 19

2.15 xG

0 / 35

0.52 xG

Low

0 / 31

0.50 xG

The Predators buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Hofer

+3.4

STL · 6/7

J. Saros

+0.1

NSH · 24/26

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Predators run the Blues off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–12

08:22NSHS. Stamkos(M. Wood, F. Svechkov)0–1
11:19NSHS. Stamkos(R. Josi, N. Perbix)0–2

2ndshots 9–13

04:17STLH. McGing(R. Fabbri, P. Broberg)1–2
08:38NSHR. O'Reilly(L. Evangelista)1–3
11:43NSHF. Forsberg(L. Evangelista, B. Skjei)1–4
12:06NSHS. Stamkos(N. Blankenburg, F. Svechkov)1–5
13:56STLR. Thomas(P. Broberg, J. Neighbours)2–5
15:33NSHS. Stamkos(M. Wood, R. Josi)2–6

3rdshots 8–7

07:36NSHM. Buntingpower play(L. Evangelista, N. Blankenburg)2–7

score reads STL–NSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.44

NSH chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.6

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.083

NSH puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

53.8%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.09Expected goals4.44

NSH 68% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal32

2High-danger chances6

48All attempts (Corsi)56

Adjusted for score: STL 53% · NSH 47%

Faceoffs · NSH won33%off55%neu53%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

STL1 / 2 · 0.45 xG

NSH2 / 6 · 1.80 xG

Medium dangermid-range

STL1 / 11 · 1.12 xG

NSH5 / 19 · 2.15 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

STL0 / 35 · 0.52 xG

NSH0 / 31 · 0.50 xG

NSH went 5-for-19 from medium danger on 2.15 expected goals — 2.9 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

STL

2 G · 2.09 xG · -0.1

NSH

7 G · 4.44 xG · +2.6

012345678

STL finished -0.1 against expected, NSH +2.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

STL

WRIST1/20

SNAP1/6

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/2

TIP IN0/1

BAT0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/16

NSH

WRIST4/20

SNAP0/4

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND1/6

TIP IN1/5

BAT1/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/12

STL

NSH

Off the rush

2 G on 24

1.96 xG

4 G on 23

2.60 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

3 G on 9

1.28 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 1-for-20, NSH 4-for-20. NSH scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Hofer

STL · 6/7 · .857

+3.4

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/61.8-0.2

Medium5/192.1-2.9

Low0/310.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Binnington

STL · 19/25 · .760

-1.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/61.8-0.2

Medium5/192.1-2.9

Low0/310.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Saros

NSH · 24/26 · .923

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/20.5-0.6

Medium1/111.1+0.1

Low0/350.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

76 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

STL

32 shots

Final

76 shots

NSH

44 shots

STL NSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

S. Stamkos

#91 · C · NSH

4 G · 0 A · 9 SOG · 16:42 on ice · +4

L. Evangelista

#77 · R · NSH

0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 18:32 on ice · +2

P. Broberg

#6 · D · STL

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 25:26 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Dec 11

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:59 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game with Nashville at 52% win probability—about as close to even money as you'll find. Both teams are stumbling into this contest with identical structural weaknesses.

Over their last 10 games, St. Louis is -6 in goal differential and Nashville is -8. Both are treading water despite season-long underlying play that should sustain them. The two teams are dead-even at 49.0% expected goal share at 5v5, though Nashville edges out the Blues in possession (50.0% Corsi% to 48.0%). The difference: puck luck. Nashville's PDO sits at 0.992—they're running cold—while St. Louis is right at 1.000, meaning every team is converting at the rate its shot quality would predict.

The goaltending wrinkle matters. Both J. Saros and J. Hofer are on back-to-backs, so watch for either side to roll out a backup or lean on a tired starter.

St. Louis rides Jimmy Snuggerud, who produces at 0.86 expected goals per 60 minutes and has scored 15 times on 11.9% conversion, adding 22 assists and two high-danger goals. Dylan Holloway operates at 0.82 xG/60 with 13 goals on 10.8% shooting and 24 assists. Nashville counters with Filip Forsberg, who leads the Predators at 23 goals and 0.80 xG/60, supplemented by Zachary L'Heureux's 0.85 xG/60—though L'Heureux has only four goals and zero assists, suggesting he's overdue. L'Heureux has posted one high-danger goal on 16.0% conversion; Forsberg has four on 13.6%.

The defensive weak point for St. Louis: covering Snuggerud. Nashville's Achilles' heel: Jonathan Marchessault.

Close underlying talent, similar recent results, both searching for an edge. This is a genuine toss-up.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NSH 52%

52%

NSH

Model favorite

48%

52%

STL50NSH

NSH by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 2.5–2.6 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

STL← edge

edge →NSH

49.0%49.0%

48.0%50.0%

2.342.48

2.402.58

2.001.84

2.122.21

1.0000.992

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.000 vs 0.992) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

STL

5-4-1

-6 GD · 1d rest

NSH

5-5-0

-8 GD · 1d rest

1.000

STL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.992

NSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Hofer is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Predators are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
The Blues are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

STL

Expected in goal

J. Hofer

back-to-back.867 last start

Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NSH

Expected in goal

J. Saros

back-to-back.929 last start

Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

STL

Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A

0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh

Dylan Holloway13G 24A

0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh

NSH

Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A

0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh

Filip Forsberg23G 17A

0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page