The Sabres stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 1.76–3.82 and won anyway.
Buffalo won 3-2 despite controlling just 1.76 expected goals to Vancouver's 3.82. The Canucks' 68% xG advantage evaporated against A. Lyon's netminding.
Lyon stopped 30 of 32 shots (0.938 SV%) and overperformed his xG by 1.82 goals. T. Demko allowed 3 of 15 (0.800 SV%) and underperformed by 1.24—a cavernous gap for a goalie facing only 15 shots. The Canucks wasted their dominance: 32 shot attempts to Buffalo's 15, three high-danger chances to two. They underperformed their xG by 1.82 goals. Buffalo, meanwhile, scored two from low-danger spots—the kind that exposes goaltending weakness.
The Canucks created three rebound opportunities but converted zero, hemming Buffalo in without finishing. The Sabres were surgical in transition: three goals on twenty rush chances, a conversion rate that punished Vancouver's aggressive up-ice press. Zach Benson's snap shot from the high slot at 14:46 of the second period proved decisive.
R. Dahlin led Buffalo with 1G and 1A in 24:51. T. Thompson added 1G and 1A in 19:06. Q. Hughes registered 1A in 30:03 for Vancouver, the only Canuck to consistently generate danger against Lyon.
This is what 68% xG performance looks like when goaltending variance flips the script: a heist.
