The Oilers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.54–3.85 and won anyway.
Edmonton won 6–3 despite generating worse quality chances—a goaltending masterclass, not superior play. Expected goals favored Toronto 3.85–3.54, meaning the Maple Leafs created more dangerous looks but failed to capitalize. T. Jarry saved 0.85 goals above expected, while D. Hildeby surrendered 1.94 more than his xG suggested, a combined three-goal swing entirely in Edmonton's favor.
Toronto's offensive advantage was structural. They generated 0.068 expected goals per shot versus Edmonton's 0.051, a meaningful gap that materialized in their 4–3 high-danger chance advantage. But the Oilers thrived on the rush, converting 6 of 37 chances to a rate far exceeding their underlying numbers.
Hildeby's night forced Toronto into depth goaltending. A. Akhtyamov entered in relief and posted a 1.000 save percentage while saving 3.5 goals above expected. Toronto's forechecking was relentless—they generated 7 rebound opportunities and converted 2—yet Edmonton's cleaners worked faster than the process suggested. The Oilers created just 3 rebounds and converted none.
Edmonton's three stars explain the gap: L. Draisaitl orchestrated with three assists in 21:08, C. McDavid scored twice and added a helper in 19:42, and V. Podkolzin tallied two in 14:01. Edmonton won on finishes, not on creating better chances—the kind of performance that doesn't repeat.