Breakdown · MTL at NYR

Rangers run the Canadiens off the ice on the underlying numbers

Final / OTSat, Dec 13

MTLMontreal Canadiens4 NYRNew York Rangers5

The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

MTL 4 · NYR 5

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:13 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Rangers' 5-4 overtime victory understated their control. They dominated expected goals (5.08–2.63), holding 66% of the chances, yet won by just one goal because Montreal overperformed its xG by 1.37.

New York held 62% of shot attempts (29–18 on goal) and generated far more dangerous scoring chances: 8 high-danger opportunities to Montreal's 2. More tellingly, New York's shots were worth 0.066 expected goals each, while Montreal's averaged 0.047—quality mattered more than volume.

Where Montreal threatened was the rush. The Canadiens scored 4 goals on 26 rush chances, a conversion rate that extended the game. New York crashed the net relentlessly: they created 8 rebound opportunities and converted 4.

I. Shesterkin (NYR) allowed 1.37 more goals than expected given his workload. J. Fowler (MTL) made 24 saves on 29 shots in defeat.

New York's power play was the difference: 2 goals on 14 shots (1.70 xG) gave them the edge five-on-five couldn't provide. J.T. Miller's slap shot from the high slot at 02:56 of overtime capped a dominant underlying performance.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Dec 13

MTL

NYR

Rangers run the Canadiens off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.6 – 5.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

MTL

2.63

NYR

5.08

34% of the chances66%

The board read MTL 4, NYR 5. The chances read MTL 2.6, NYR 5.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

−0.1

goals above expected

NYR5.08 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

MTL2.63 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 12:41MTLZ. Bolduc1–0
P1 14:10MTLA. Xhekaj2–0
P1 16:18MTLJ. Evans3–0
P1 18:49NYRN. LabaPP3–1
P1 19:08NYRA. PanarinPP3–2
P2 03:17MTLJ. Anderson4–2
P2 07:22NYRW. Cuylle4–3

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

MTL

36 shots

Final

90 shots

NYR

54 shots

MTL NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

MTLNYR

0 / 2

0.53 xG

High danger

3 / 8

1.89 xG

3 / 14

1.65 xG

Medium

2 / 22

2.59 xG

1 / 40

0.45 xG

Low

0 / 47

0.59 xG

The Rangers buried 3 of 8 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Fowler

+0.1

MTL · 24/29

D-

I. Shesterkin

−1.4

NYR · 14/18

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers run the Canadiens off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–11

12:41MTLZ. Bolduc(N. Suzuki, C. Caufield)1–0
14:10MTLA. Xhekaj(A. Carrier, A. Texier)2–0
16:18MTLJ. Evans(L. Hutson, J. Veleno)3–0
18:49NYRN. Labapower play(W. Cuylle, C. Sheary)3–1
19:08NYRA. Panarinpower play3–2

2ndshots 4–8

03:17MTLJ. Anderson(L. Hutson, N. Suzuki)4–2
07:22NYRW. Cuylle(M. Robertson, N. Laba)4–3
07:58NYRJ. Miller(M. Robertson, C. Sheary)4–4

3rdshots 6–5no goals

OTshots 1–5

02:56NYRJ. Millerpower play(M. Zibanejad, V. Trocheck)4–5

score reads MTL–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

5.08

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.1

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

0.994

NYR puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

57.9%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.63Expected goals5.08

NYR 66% of the chance quality

18Shots on goal29

2High-danger chances8

56All attempts (Corsi)77

Adjusted for score: MTL 40% · NYR 60%

Faceoffs · NYR won57%off62%neu36%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

MTL0 / 2 · 0.53 xG

NYR3 / 8 · 1.89 xG

Medium dangermid-range

MTL3 / 14 · 1.65 xG

NYR2 / 22 · 2.59 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

MTL1 / 40 · 0.45 xG

NYR0 / 47 · 0.59 xG

MTL went 3-for-14 from medium danger on 1.65 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

MTL

4 G · 2.63 xG · +1.4

NYR

5 G · 5.08 xG · -0.1

0123456

MTL finished +1.4 against expected, NYR -0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

MTL

WRIST2/14

SNAP1/10

SLAP1/6

DEFLECTED0/1

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN0/2

BAT0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/20

NYR

WRIST3/24

SNAP0/13

SLAP1/5

DEFLECTED0/7

BACKHAND1/1

TIP IN0/1

BAT0/2

POKE0/1

OTHER0/23

MTL

NYR

Off the rush

4 G on 26

2.25 xG

1 G on 29

3.26 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.15 xG

4 G on 8

1.35 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MTL went 2-for-14, NYR 3-for-24. MTL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Fowler

MTL · 24/29 · .828

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/81.9-1.1

Medium2/222.6+0.6

Low0/470.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 14/18 · .778

-1.4

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.5+0.5

Medium3/141.6-1.4

Low1/400.5-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

90 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

MTL

36 shots

Final

90 shots

NYR

54 shots

MTL NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — MTL left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

L. Hutson

#48 · D · MTL

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 26:58 on ice · +1

N. Suzuki

#14 · C · MTL

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 24:33 on ice · +1

J. Miller

#8 · C · NYR

2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 20:54 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Dec 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:11 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4–2.6 goal range and slots the Rangers at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Both teams sit at 48.0% xG% and 49.0% Corsi%—parity on the two metrics that matter most. Montreal's slight possession edge doesn't move the needle. The Rangers' 3-point win probability advantage reflects calculation, not conviction.

What separates them is luck. Montreal's PDO of 1.018 means they're running hot on both ends—save percentage and shooting accuracy inflated above sustainable levels. Regression is coming. New York's 1.009 sits nearer equilibrium, positioning them to maintain their current pace.

Montreal's offense centers on Cole Caufield: 0.97 xG per 60, 33 goals, and 16 assists. The catch is his 20.0% shooting rate will normalize downward. Worse, the Canadiens have generated just 1 high-danger goal all season—a structural limitation that even Caufield can't overcome. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19G 12A, 4 HD goals) shoots at a more sustainable 17.8%, suggesting Montreal's offensive spacing is fine; execution is the variable that'll regress.

New York's Adam Sykora logs 0.91 xG per 60 but has converted only 3 goals—a 20.0% shooting clip that screams underperformance. Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60, 8G 11A, 2 HD goals, 13.1% shooting) offers steadier secondary depth, paired with efficiency that's likely to hold.

Defensively, both teams bleed. Montreal's Mike Matheson has been consistently targeted; New York's Vincent Iorio presents similar exposure. These soft spots will get hunted.

The wrinkle: J. Fowler takes the back-to-back for New York, raising the prospect of either fatigue on the starter or a backup deployment. Either scenario clouds the projection.

The model's 53% Rangers edge is defensible but threadbare. In a game this symmetric, assignment of probability is almost noise. Call it a true coin flip and move on.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYR 53%

53%

NYR

Model favorite

47%

53%

MTL50NYR

NYR by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MTL 2.4–2.6 NYR; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL← edge

edge →NYR

48.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.412.26

2.622.40

2.241.88

1.961.90

1.0181.009

NYR holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.009) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

MTL

6-4-0

-3 GD · 1d rest

NYR

5-3-2

+1 GD · 2d rest

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

J. Fowler is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

MTL

Expected in goal

J. Fowler

back-to-back.947 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

2 days rest.880 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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