Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater

Breakdown · VGK at CBJ

Golden Knights hold off the Blue Jackets

FinalSat, Dec 13

VGKVegas Golden Knights3 CBJColumbus Blue Jackets2

The verdict · stolen

The Golden Knights stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 1.84–2.46 and won anyway.

VGK 3 · CBJ 2

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:16 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas won 3–2 but had no business doing it. Columbus controlled 57% of the expected goals (2.46 to 1.84) and 54% of shot attempts. The Golden Knights overperformed their xG by 1.16 goals—a heist powered by variance, not execution.

Columbus dominated the quality battle. Their chances averaged 0.042 xG per shot versus Vegas's 0.030. They also won high-danger opportunities 4–1. The Jackets created the right game; they just lost it anyway.

Goaltending decided the margin. J. Greaves faced the exact volume Columbus deserved but allowed 1.16 more goals than expected. C. Hart in Vegas saved 28 of 30 for a 0.933 save percentage—efficient enough to backstop the theft.

Both teams found the rush. Vegas scored three rush goals on 23 chances; Columbus scored two on 25. Small margins at speed, but Vegas converted when it mattered. Brayden McNabb's snap shot from a sharp angle (P3, 13:13) proved to be the difference in a one-goal game.

This was Vegas maximizing scraps while Columbus wasted territory. The Jackets left points on the table with superior chances, better possession, and a familiar final score: a loss despite dominating underneath.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 13

VGK

CBJ

Golden Knights hold off the Blue Jackets

Chances 1.8 – 2.5Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

1.84

CBJ

2.46

43% of the chances57%

The board read VGK 3, CBJ 2. The chances read VGK 1.8, CBJ 2.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

VGK

+1.2

goals above expected

VGK1.84 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

CBJ2.46 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 07:02CBJC. Coyle0–1
P2 00:41VGKP. DorofeyevPP1–1
P3 04:49CBJE. Chinakhov1–2
P3 05:52VGKB. Hutton2–2
P3 13:13VGKB. McNabb3–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

40 shots

Final

77 shots

CBJ

37 shots

VGK CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKCBJ

0 / 1

0.21 xG

High danger

0 / 4

0.82 xG

1 / 11

1.03 xG

Medium

2 / 14

1.22 xG

2 / 49

0.60 xG

Low

0 / 41

0.41 xG

The Blue Jackets went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Hart

+0.5

VGK · 28/30

D-

J. Greaves

−1.2

CBJ · 23/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Golden Knights hold off the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–9

07:02CBJC. Coyle(Z. Werenski, C. Sillinger)0–1

2ndshots 7–10

00:41VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Marner, J. Eichel)1–1

3rdshots 10–11

04:49CBJE. Chinakhov(D. Fabbro, K. Johnson)1–2
05:52VGKB. Hutton(M. Marner, K. Korczak)2–2
13:13VGKB. McNabb(M. Marner, S. Theodore)3–2

score reads VGK–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

1.84

VGK chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.015

VGK puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

50.8%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.84Expected goals2.46

CBJ 57% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal30

1High-danger chances4

61All attempts (Corsi)59

Adjusted for score: VGK 52% · CBJ 49%

Faceoffs · CBJ won52%off62%neu61%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK0 / 1 · 0.21 xG

CBJ0 / 4 · 0.82 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK1 / 11 · 1.03 xG

CBJ2 / 14 · 1.22 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK2 / 49 · 0.60 xG

CBJ0 / 41 · 0.41 xG

VGK went 2-for-49 from low danger on 0.60 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

3 G · 1.84 xG · +1.2

CBJ

2 G · 2.46 xG · -0.5

01234

VGK finished +1.2 against expected, CBJ -0.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

WRIST0/18

SNAP3/15

SLAP0/6

BACKHAND0/0

TIP IN0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/21

CBJ

WRIST2/18

SNAP0/7

SLAP0/5

BACKHAND0/5

TIP IN0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/22

VGK

CBJ

Off the rush

3 G on 23

1.37 xG

2 G on 25

1.79 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.10 xG

0 G on 2

0.43 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 0-for-18, CBJ 2-for-18. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Hart

VGK · 28/30 · .933

+0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.8+0.8

Medium2/141.2-0.8

Low0/410.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Greaves

CBJ · 23/26 · .885

-1.2

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/10.2+0.2

Medium1/111.0+0.0

Low2/490.6-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

40 shots

Final

77 shots

CBJ

37 shots

VGK CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Marner

#93 · R · VGK

0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 16:46 on ice · +2

Z. Werenski

#8 · D · CBJ

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 25:53 on ice · +1

S. Theodore

#27 · D · VGK

0 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 22:43 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Dec 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:14 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects VGK 2.5 – 2.5 CBJ with the Blue Jackets at 50% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Vegas has the form advantage. The Golden Knights are 5-2-3 in their last ten. Columbus sits -13 in goal differential over the same stretch, a gap that rarely closes overnight.

But underlying metrics suggest regression ahead for Vegas. VGK's 54.0% xG% and 52.0% Corsi% exceed Columbus's 52.0% xG% and 51.0% Corsi%, confirming a skill edge—yet their 0.983 PDO indicates they're running cold. Columbus operates at 1.003 PDO, running hot on variance.

Both teams' goaltenders are on back-to-backs. J. Greaves and A. Schmid may start fatigued or see reduced minutes, a variable that typically favors the team striking first.

Vegas's scoring depends on Brandon Saad and Tomas Hertl. Saad generates 0.91 xG/60 with a 4.1% shooting percentage—a modest return despite 3G 6A and 1 hard-hit goal. Hertl contributes 5G 17A with 0.88 xG/60 and 4.3% shooting, distributing offense evenly between scoring and setup. The Blue Jackets must account for both to contain Vegas's pressure.

Columbus answers with Boone Jenner and Mathieu Olivier. Jenner anchors the attack with 0.98 xG/60, 9.6% shooting, 11G 21A, and 2 hard-hit goals. Olivier is even sharper: 13.3% shooting on 0.89 xG/60 with 12G 9A makes him the kind of finisher Vegas cannot ignore.

Defensive weaknesses invite attack. Rasmus Andersson represents Vegas's vulnerable point; Conor Garland is Columbus's. Neither team converts hard-hit or rebound chances—both operate at 0%—which means the game rewards clean zone entry and shot placement over second-effort desperation.

The formula tilts marginally toward Vegas. Recent form, underlying skill, and a tired opponent create an edge. But Olivier and Jenner's finishes keep this a genuine coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 50%

50%

CBJ

Model favorite

50%

VGK50CBJ

CBJ by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.5 CBJ; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →CBJ

54.0%52.0%

52.0%51.0%

2.522.63

2.112.43

2.122.12

2.101.98

0.9831.003

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.003) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

5-2-3

-3 GD · 1d rest

CBJ

2-4-4

-13 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.003

CBJ PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

J. Greaves is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
A. Schmid is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-3 in their last 10).
The Blue Jackets are underwater at -13 goal differential over their last 10.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Schmid

back-to-back.895 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CBJ

Expected in goal

J. Greaves

back-to-back.913 last start

Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

CBJ

Boone Jenner11G 21A

0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh

Mathieu Olivier12G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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