Motion-blurred skater in a Winnipeg Jets sweater

Breakdown · WSH at WPG

Jets run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Dec 13

WSHWashington Capitals1 WPGWinnipeg Jets5

The verdict · earned

The Jets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WSH 1 · WPG 5

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:15 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington didn't just lose—they wasted their chances while Winnipeg converted ruthlessly. The real story: the Capitals generated 2.70 xG and scored once, 0-for-5 on high-danger attempts. The Jets controlled 63% of 5v5 expected goals (4.67–2.70) and left no room for excuses.

Winnipeg's efficiency was the differentiator. They posted 0.073 xG per shot to Washington's 0.055—a 32% quality gap that compounded across 35 shot attempts to the Capitals' 25. On high-danger chances, the pattern held: 10 for Winnipeg, 5 for Washington. The Jets' superiority wasn't close.

Execution sealed it. Winnipeg scored three times on 22 rush attempts. C. Hellebuyck backstopped the assault, stopping 24 of 25 and posting +1.70 against expected saves with a 100% high-danger mark. Washington's goaltender posted 90% on high-danger looks—respectable in isolation, but irrelevant when the skaters went silent.

The turning point arrived at 16:32 of the third when Jakob Chychrun's high-slot slap shot gave Winnipeg another cushion. By then the game had already tilted—the Jets' sustained pressure and superior shot generation had left Washington's defense with no answers.

This wasn't luck. Washington earned their 2.70 xG through legitimate chances. They simply couldn't finish.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 13

WSH

WPG

Jets run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.7 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Jets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

WSH

2.70

WPG

4.67

37% of the chances63%

The board read WSH 1, WPG 5. The chances read WSH 2.7, WPG 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

WPG

+0.3

goals above expected

WPG4.67 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

WSH2.70 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Capitals left 1.7 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 09:13WPGL. Stanley0–1
P1 18:43WPGM. Barron0–2
P2 03:39WPGA. Iafallo0–3
P2 19:53WPGG. VilardiPP0–4
P3 11:55WPGG. Vilardi0–5
P3 16:32WSHJ. ChychrunPP1–5

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WSH

34 shots

Final

82 shots

WPG

48 shots

WSH WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WSHWPG

0 / 5

1.18 xG

High danger

1 / 10

2.55 xG

1 / 9

0.97 xG

Medium

3 / 14

1.60 xG

0 / 35

0.55 xG

Low

1 / 40

0.51 xG

The Capitals went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Hellebuyck

+1.7

WPG · 24/25

L. Thompson

−0.3

WSH · 30/35

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Jets run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 3–13

09:13WPGL. Stanley(J. Morrissey, M. Scheifele)0–1
18:43WPGM. Barron(A. Lowry, A. Iafallo)0–2

2ndshots 9–10

03:39WPGA. Iafallo(A. Lowry)0–3
19:53WPGG. Vilardipower play(K. Connor, J. Morrissey)0–4

3rdshots 13–12

11:55WPGG. Vilardi(K. Connor, M. Scheifele)0–5
16:32WSHJ. Chychrunpower play(J. Carlson, A. Ovechkin)1–5

score reads WSH–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.67

WPG chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.3

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.058

WPG puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

56.6%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.70Expected goals4.67

WPG 63% of the chance quality

25Shots on goal35

5High-danger chances10

49All attempts (Corsi)64

Adjusted for score: WSH 50% · WPG 50%

Faceoffs · WPG won46%off47%neu38%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WSH0 / 5 · 1.18 xG

WPG1 / 10 · 2.55 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WSH1 / 9 · 0.97 xG

WPG3 / 14 · 1.60 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WSH0 / 35 · 0.55 xG

WPG1 / 40 · 0.51 xG

WPG went 1-for-10 from high danger on 2.55 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WSH

1 G · 2.70 xG · -1.7

WPG

5 G · 4.67 xG · +0.3

0123456

WSH finished -1.7 against expected, WPG +0.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WSH

WRIST0/16

SLAP1/9

TIP IN0/2

BACKHAND0/1

SNAP0/3

BAT0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/15

WPG

WRIST2/19

SLAP0/10

TIP IN1/6

BACKHAND1/6

SNAP0/3

BAT1/2

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/16

WSH

WPG

Off the rush

0 G on 16

1.53 xG

3 G on 22

2.45 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.45 xG

1 G on 7

1.31 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 0-for-16, WPG 2-for-19. WPG scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

L. Thompson

WSH · 30/35 · .857

-0.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/102.5+1.6

Medium3/141.6-1.4

Low1/400.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Hellebuyck

WPG · 24/25 · .960

+1.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.2+1.2

Medium1/91.0-0.0

Low0/350.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WSH

34 shots

Final

82 shots

WPG

48 shots

WSH WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

K. Connor

#81 · L · WPG

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 18:35 on ice · +1

J. Morrissey

#44 · D · WPG

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 17:49 on ice · +2

M. Scheifele

#55 · C · WPG

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 17:17 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Dec 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:14 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model calls this one dead even: Washington's expected 2.6 goals versus Winnipeg's 2.6, with the Jets at 50% win probability. Flip a coin.

Washington's recent run supports the toss-up. The Capitals are 7-1-2 in their last 10 games—the hotter team on pace. Winnipeg is underwater, sitting at -15 goal differential over the same stretch. But the underlying numbers narrow that gap considerably.

At 5v5, Washington's expected goals percentage sits at 50.0% while Winnipeg's is 48.0%—not exactly a chasm. Corsi percentage is tied at 49.0% for both teams. Washington's PDO (1.018) runs slightly hotter than Winnipeg's (0.998), explaining some of that recent wins differential. That PDO is a warning for the Capitals: they're playing at the edge of sustainable luck and should expect some regression.

Goaltending adds uncertainty. Both E. Comrie and L. Thompson are on back-to-backs, meaning either could be rested with a backup or take the ice fatigued. That's a variable neither team fully controls.

The talent match is sharp. Alex Ovechkin carries 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes with 19 goals and 17 assists; his 13.8% shooting rate means he's converting chances at a high clip. Kyle Connor matches him at 25 goals and 30 assists with a 0.83 xG/60 rate. Connor's assist total suggests he's a broader threat to the offense.

Anthony Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 10.4% shooting) gives Washington a secondary scorer who's also running hot. Nino Niederreiter's line generates 0.87 xG/60 from 6 goals, but he's buried 3 high-danger chances—suggesting his goal total doesn't yet reflect the quality of his work.

Winnipeg's Colin Miller and Washington's Declan Chisholm are defensive weak points either offense should hunt. Both teams show 0% high-danger goal and rebound goal rates, meaning neither is winning the scramble game; the game will turn on shots from prime scoring areas.

Nothing here breaks the tie. Washington's form and PDO give it slight momentum. Winnipeg's underlying shot numbers and Niederreiter's high-danger profile offer countervailing signs. This is a true 50-50.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WPG 50%

50%

WPG

Model favorite

50%

WSH50WPG

WPG by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.6 WPG; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH← edge

edge →WPG

50.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.622.34

2.622.55

2.181.90

1.792.10

1.0180.998

WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.998) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WSH

7-1-2

+16 GD · 1d rest

WPG

2-7-1

-15 GD · 1d rest

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.998

WPG PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

E. Comrie is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Capitals are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
The Jets are underwater at -15 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

back-to-back.949 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WPG

Expected in goal

E. Comrie

back-to-back.783 last start

Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

WPG

Nino Niederreiter6G 6A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh

Kyle Connor25G 30A

0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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