The Canucks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 1.65–3.42 and won anyway.
The Canucks won 2–1 despite losing the expected-goals battle, 3.42–1.65. New Jersey controlled 67% of the xG; this was a heist.
Vancouver's victory defied every underlying metric. The Devils dominated 63% of shot attempts, generated six high-danger chances to one, and carried a superior chance quality of 0.057 xG per shot versus 0.041. By the numbers, New Jersey owned this game.
But the score favors the Canucks. That's because T. Demko was exceptional.
The Vancouver goaltender stopped 25 of 26 shots—a 0.962 save percentage—and robbed 2.42 goals above expectation. On high-danger chances alone, Demko was 6-for-6, an improbable shutout within a shutout.
New Jersey's finishing was the culprit. The Devils went 0-for-6 on high-danger chances, squandered three rebound opportunities, and underperformed their 3.42 xG by 2.42 goals. That gap doesn't close often.
Vancouver converted on the power play—2 goals on 6 power-play shots, an absurd 0.60 xG. The Canucks capitalized where the Devils couldn't, a microcosm of the lopsided outcome.
J. Markstrom, New Jersey's goaltender, faced a different sort of game: 13 saves on 15 shots. When your team generates this much volume and quality, your goaltender's performance becomes secondary.
The Canucks stole this. The Devils earned it. The xG said so, the shot chart confirmed it, the chance quality proved it. Vancouver simply refused to lose, riding Demko's wall and opportunistic power-play execution to a road win that shouldn't have happened.
