The Canadiens beat Edmonton 4–1, but the underlying metrics suggested it should have been closer. High-danger chances tied 7–7. Expected goals split 4.90–4.08, barely favoring Montreal. J. Dobes made the difference: 27 of 28 stops (0.964 SV%, +3.08 vs. expected)—enough to swing the entire game.

C. Pickard was solid (23/27, 0.852 SV%, +0.90) but couldn't match that performance.

Montreal's edge was quality over quantity. The Canadiens averaged 0.100 expected goals per shot versus Edmonton's 0.072. On the rush, Montreal buried 4 of 21 chances while Edmonton couldn't convert its 7 high-danger opportunities. The Oilers did crash the net hard, generating 5 rebound opportunities, though they converted just one.

The Canadiens' power play was lethal: 2 goals on 12 shots (1.93 expected goals).

The turning point was Alexandre Texier's snap shot from the high slot at 13:52 of the third period.

The models can't pick a side. Edmonton projects to 51% win probability in a 2.6-2.6 game — about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Oilers own the underlying play. Their 52.0% 5v5 expected-goals share against Montreal's 48.0% suggests they're generating more quality chances. Edmonton's Corsi sits at 50.0% to the Canadiens' 49.0%, confirming shot volume dominance. But the PDO numbers complicate the read: Montreal is running hot at 1.018 (converting at rates that won't stick), while Edmonton sits cold at 0.982. The underlying edge combined with positive regression potential should favor Edmonton — yet Montreal's actual goal-scoring has carried them despite not owning the shot battle.

This game hinges on elite wings playing out of their minds.

Connor McDavid is generating 0.92 expected goals per 60 minutes while maintaining a 13.7% shooting percentage. With 25 goals and 33 assists, he's been simultaneously efficient and productive. Zach Hyman operates at 1.23 xG/60, a pace that ranks among the league's most dangerous forwards, and he's converted at 13.0% to reach 14 goals and 13 assists — showing he's not just riding volume.

Montreal counters with Cole Caufield, who's posted 33 goals and 16 assists on a 20.0% shooting rate, a figure that blends luck and genuine finishing. At 0.97 xG/60, he's not generating McDavid's volume, yet he's been Montreal's most lethal weapon. Oliver Kapanen adds secondary punch at 0.83 xG/60 with 19 goals and 12 assists on a 17.8% shooting rate.

The defensive vulnerabilities matter here. Edmonton's Jake Walman and Montreal's Mike Matheson represent the points where this matchup bends. Both teams sit at 0% high-danger goal rates, suggesting shot quality variance is masking true danger — meaning performances on the perimeter, where these defensemen live, become unusually decisive.

This is a genuinely even matchup. Edmonton's underlying metrics favor the Oilers; regression math favors the Oilers. But Montreal's results say they belong. At 51 percent, the model isn't wrong.