The Oilers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Edmonton won this game with its goaltending and finishing, not domination. The Penguins held 57% of shot attempts and expected goals essentially split down the middle (4.11–4.15), yet the Oilers won 6-4. Edmonton overperformed its expected goals by 1.85 goals—the difference between lucky bounces and tactical execution.
T. Jarry's work in the high-danger zone proved decisive: 100% save percentage on five high-danger shots. S. Skinner, meanwhile, fell 0.85 goals short of expected performance—particularly damaging on Pittsburgh's 0-for-5 night in high-danger areas. Edmonton capitalized on four of six chances in that same zone (67%), the kind of conversion rate that swings close games.
The Penguins' rush game was efficient (2 goals on 28 chances), but Edmonton's was more clinical: four goals on 33 attempts. Pittsburgh created four rebound opportunities and converted two; Edmonton created four and converted none.
Danton Heinen's wrist shot from the slot (19:46, third period) marked the turning point. C. McDavid delivered two goals and two assists in 22:31, L. Draisaitl recorded four assists in 18:02, and E. Karlsson answered for Pittsburgh with one goal and one assist in 24:11.
This was variance working in Edmonton's favor—the Oilers did more with less and emerged with a two-goal win the underlying numbers didn't quite support.