The Ducks generated superior expected goals—3.30 to Columbus's 2.79—yet lost 4-3 in overtime. Anaheim's offense positioned shots better than the scoreline suggests, but specific execution matters more than volume.

Columbus held 51% of shot attempts despite the xG gap. High-danger chances favored Anaheim 7-3. This indicated Columbus's shots came from lower-danger locations.

Goaltending was the critical gap. V. Husso allowed 1.21 goals above his expected save rate, placing Anaheim in deficit. J. Greaves was solid at 0.889, making the stops that mattered.

Both teams scored 3 goals off the rush—Columbus from 28 chances, Anaheim from 22. The rush offset the underlying metrics; Columbus won the execution battle elsewhere. Adam Fantilli's snap shot from the high slot at 03:32 of overtime decided it.

Z. Werenski anchored Columbus with 2 goals and 1 assist in 29:31. M. Granlund contributed equally for Anaheim with 1 goal and 1 assist.

Anaheim's underlying play favored them. Columbus's better goaltending and timely execution overrode it.

The model projects a 2.6-2.7 game with the Blue Jackets at 52% win probability. This is as close to a toss-up as sports betting gets. Both offenses are generating identical expected goals at 52%. Anaheim holds a marginal edge in Corsi% (52.0% to 51.0%).

The Ducks' PDO of 0.981 indicates they're running cold, a precursor to positive regression. Columbus's 1.003 PDO suggests they're running hot, but they're -13 on goal differential over their last ten games—a gap that tends to close.

Beckett Sennecke anchors the Ducks' offense at 1.03 xG/60 with 20 goals and 19 assists. He's converted 8 high-danger chances while shooting at 13.5%, a rate that reflects both skill and variance working in his favor. Cutter Gauthier edges him with 25 goals and 16 assists while operating at 0.99 xG/60. He's converted 2 high-danger chances at a 12.9% shooting rate, making him the more efficient scorer relative to opportunity.

The Blue Jackets counter with Boone Jenner, who has 11 goals and 21 assists at 0.98 xG/60 and a 9.6% shooting rate. He's converted only 2 high-danger chances, suggesting he's outperforming his underlying opportunities. Mathieu Olivier has 12 goals and 9 assists at 0.89 xG/60 with 1 high-danger conversion, maintaining a sharp 13.3% shooting rate.

Mason McTavish represents Anaheim's defensive vulnerability. Conor Garland mirrors that liability for Columbus. Both teams sit at 0% on high-danger and rebound-goal production, an oddity worth monitoring though likely explained by small sample size.

This is a genuine coin flip. The models agree, the rosters match, and variance will decide.