Motion-blurred skater in a St. Louis Blues sweater

Breakdown · WPG at STL

Blues shut out the Jets, 1-0

FinalWed, Dec 17

The verdict · earned

The Blues earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WPG 0 · STL 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:43 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Blues' 1-0 shutout of Winnipeg masked a far more lopsided reality. St. Louis controlled 63% of expected goals (4.01–2.37) and generated eight high-danger chances to the Jets' two—a dominant performance constrained only by conversion rate.

Justin Faulk's wrist shot from the high slot (P2, 13:17) was the game's sole goal. It should have been far more. The Blues underperformed their xG by 3.01 goals; they had the chances but couldn't finish.

Winnipeg was kept in the game by C. Hellebuyck's historic performance. He stopped 3.0 goals above expected, making 25 saves on 26 shots while facing far higher-quality chances. The Jets underperformed their 2.37 xG by the same margin, meaning both teams left scoring on the table—but the opportunity gap was immense.

J. Hofer (24/24, 1.000 SV%) was similarly excellent in net, saving 2.37 goals above expected. Combined, these performances transformed St. Louis's dominant underlying play—4.01 xG to Winnipeg's 2.37—into a 1–0 final.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 17

WPG

STL

Blues shut out the Jets, 1-0

Chances 2.4 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Blues earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

WPG

2.37

STL

4.01

37% of the chances63%

The board read WPG 0, STL 1. The chances read WPG 2.4, STL 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

STL

−3.0

goals above expected

STL4.01 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

WPG2.37 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Jets left 2.4 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 13:17STLJ. Faulk0–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WPG

44 shots

Final

84 shots

STL

40 shots

WPG STL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 0 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WPGSTL

0 / 2

0.51 xG

High danger

0 / 8

1.89 xG

0 / 9

1.02 xG

Medium

0 / 17

1.76 xG

0 / 49

0.84 xG

Low

1 / 24

0.36 xG

High-danger looks: WPG 0 of 2, STL 0 of 8.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

C. Hellebuyck

+3.0

WPG · 25/26

J. Hofer

+2.4

STL · 24/24

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Blues shut out the Jets, 1-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–11no goals

2ndshots 9–12

13:17STLJ. Faulk(R. Thomas)0–1

3rdshots 9–3no goals

score reads WPG–STL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.01

STL chances

Goals their shots were worth

−3.0

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.020

STL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

45.0%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.37Expected goals4.01

STL 63% of the chance quality

24Shots on goal26

2High-danger chances8

60All attempts (Corsi)49

Adjusted for score: WPG 57% · STL 43%

Faceoffs · STL won16%off60%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WPG0 / 2 · 0.51 xG

STL0 / 8 · 1.89 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WPG0 / 9 · 1.02 xG

STL0 / 17 · 1.76 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WPG0 / 49 · 0.84 xG

STL1 / 24 · 0.36 xG

STL went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.89 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WPG

0 G · 2.37 xG · -2.4

STL

1 G · 4.01 xG · -3.0

012345

WPG finished -2.4 against expected, STL -3.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WPG

WRIST0/23

SLAP0/7

TIP IN0/8

BACKHAND0/4

SNAP0/0

BAT0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/16

STL

WRIST1/26

SLAP0/3

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/3

SNAP0/5

BAT0/0

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/9

WPG

STL

Off the rush

0 G on 21

1.66 xG

1 G on 24

1.97 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.17 xG

0 G on 7

1.33 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WPG went 0-for-23, STL 1-for-26.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Hellebuyck

WPG · 25/26 · .962

+3.0

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/81.9+1.9

Medium0/171.8+1.8

Low1/240.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Hofer

STL · 24/24 · 1.000

+2.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.5+0.5

Medium0/91.0+1.0

Low0/490.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

84 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WPG

44 shots

Final

84 shots

STL

40 shots

WPG STL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — WPG left, STL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Faulk

#72 · D · STL

1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 21:40 on ice · +1

R. Thomas

#18 · C · STL

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 21:20 on ice · +1

P. Broberg

#6 · D · STL

0 G · 0 A · 0 SOG · 25:02 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Dec 17

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:41 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4–2.6 xG game with the Blues favored at 54% win probability—a genuine coin flip. Both teams enter this matchup with damage in recent form: St. Louis sits at -12 goal differential over their last 10 games, while Winnipeg is -8.

The season's 5v5 numbers offer no clarity. St. Louis edges in expected goals at 49.0% xG to Winnipeg's 48.0%, but Winnipeg counters with 49.0% Corsi to St. Louis's 48.0%. Both teams' PDOs are near neutral (Winnipeg 0.998, St. Louis 1.000), meaning recent luck hasn't inflated or suppressed their underlying production.

The goaltending situation cuts both ways: both J. Hofer and C. Hellebuyck are on back-to-back starts, meaning either could draw a backup or both starters could show fatigue. This variable alone could determine the outcome.

Winnipeg's offense hinges on two scorers in different spots. Nino Niederreiter has produced 6 goals and 6 assists while generating 0.87 xG per 60 minutes, with an 8.6% shooting rate and 3 high-danger goals. Kyle Connor carries 25 goals and 30 assists while generating 0.83 xG per 60 minutes but only 2 high-danger goals, suggesting he's converting mid-danger chances at an unsustainable 13.0% clip. St. Louis counters with Jimmy Snuggerud (15G, 22A, 0.86 xG/60, 11.9% shooting, 2 HD goals) and Dylan Holloway (13G, 24A, 0.82 xG/60, 10.8% shooting, 1 HD goal), both operating in the high-volume band.

Neither team has scored a high-danger or rebound goal, suggesting both defensive structures remain intact but fragile. Colin Miller represents a clear liability for Winnipeg on the back end, while St. Louis's Jimmy Snuggerud, despite his prolific offense, carries defensive responsibility that could expose vulnerabilities.

At 54% favorite with nearly identical underlying metrics, St. Louis's advantage is negligible. This is a pick'em.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

STL 54%

53%

STL

Model favorite

47%

53%

WPG50STL

STL by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WPG 2.4–2.6 STL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WPG← edge

edge →STL

48.0%49.0%

49.0%48.0%

2.342.34

2.552.40

1.902.00

2.102.12

0.9981.000

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.998 vs 1.000) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WPG

3-5-2

-8 GD · 1d rest

STL

5-5-0

-12 GD · 1d rest

0.998

WPG PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.000

STL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

J. Hofer is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
C. Hellebuyck is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Blues are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.
The Jets are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WPG

Expected in goal

C. Hellebuyck

back-to-back.903 last start

Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

STL

Expected in goal

J. Hofer

back-to-back.840 last start

Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WPG

Nino Niederreiter6G 6A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh

Kyle Connor25G 30A

0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

STL

Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A

0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh

Dylan Holloway13G 24A

0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh

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Where to next

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