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Motion-blurred skater in a Carolina Hurricanes sweater
← Wed, Dec 17 · the slate
Breakdown · CAR at NSH

Hurricanes run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalWed, Dec 17
CARCarolina Hurricanes4NSHNashville Predators1
The verdict · earned

The Hurricanes earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CAR 4 · NSH 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:49 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Hurricanes rolled past the Predators 4-1 on a 4.85–2.86 expected-goals margin, but Nashville underperformed by 1.86 goals—the largest disconnect between shot quality and outcome. Had the Predators converted at expected rates, they'd have scored closer to three goals.

The Hurricanes controlled play across every metric: 37–26 shot attempts (NSH held 41%), 0.069 xG/shot to 0.052, and 6–3 high-danger chances. P. Kochetkov recorded 25 saves on 26 shots (0.962 SV%), outperforming expectations by 1.86 goals. J. Saros made 33 saves on 36 shots (0.917 SV%), also beating his expected save percentage by 1.85 goals.

Nashville created six rebound opportunities (1 converted) and attacked the net more effectively than the shot totals suggest. Carolina's three rebound chances (1 converted) mattered less when their shot quality was so superior. The underlying data backed the final scoreline almost perfectly—the Predators simply couldn't finish.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 17
CAR
4
NSH
1

Hurricanes run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.8 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Hurricanes earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CAR
4.85
NSH
2.86
63% of the chances37%

The board read CAR 4, NSH 1. The chances read CAR 4.8, NSH 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CAR
−0.8
goals above expected
CAR4.85 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
NSH2.86 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Predators left 1.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 13:00CARJ. Blake1–0
  2. P3 02:43CARS. AhoPP2–0
  3. P3 04:33CARS. Jarvis3–0
  4. P3 08:06NSHF. Forsberg3–1
  5. P3 19:15CARS. AhoEN4–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CAR
54 shots
4
Final
95 shots
NSH
41 shots
1
CAR attackNSH attack
CAR NSH Goal
54
shots · 4 in
41
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CARNSH
1 / 6
2.11 xG
High danger
1 / 3
0.64 xG
3 / 16
1.96 xG
Medium
0 / 13
1.56 xG
0 / 48
0.79 xG
Low
0 / 39
0.66 xG

High-danger looks: CAR 1 of 6, NSH 1 of 3.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
P. Kochetkov
+1.9
CAR · 25/26
A
J. Saros
+1.9
NSH · 33/36
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Hurricanes run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 19–5
  1. 13:00CARJ. Blake(L. Stankoven, A. Nikishin)1–0
2ndshots 9–6no goals
    3rdshots 9–15
    1. 02:43CARS. Ahopower play(J. Blake, A. Svechnikov)2–0
    2. 04:33CARS. Jarvis(S. Aho, N. Ehlers)3–0
    3. 08:06NSHF. Forsberg(R. O'Reilly, S. Stamkos)3–1
    4. 19:15CARS. Ahoempty net(A. Svechnikov)4–1

    score reads CAR–NSH

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.85
    CAR chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.8
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.039
    CAR puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    56.0%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.85Expected goals2.86
    CAR 63% of the chance quality
    37Shots on goal26
    6High-danger chances3
    70All attempts (Corsi)55
    Adjusted for score: CAR 52% · NSH 49%
    Faceoffs · NSH won53%off52%neu55%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    CAR1 / 6 · 2.11 xG
    NSH1 / 3 · 0.64 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    CAR3 / 16 · 1.96 xG
    NSH0 / 13 · 1.56 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    CAR0 / 48 · 0.79 xG
    NSH0 / 39 · 0.66 xG

    NSH went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.56 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    CAR
    4 G · 4.85 xG · -0.8
    NSH
    1 G · 2.86 xG · -1.9
    0123456

    CAR finished -0.8 against expected, NSH -1.9.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    CAR
    WRIST2/27
    SLAP1/7
    SNAP0/11
    BACKHAND1/4
    TIP IN0/4
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/16
    NSH
    WRIST1/26
    SLAP0/8
    SNAP0/1
    BACKHAND0/4
    TIP IN0/2
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/14
    CAR
    NSH
    Off the rush
    1 G on 34
    2.55 xG
    0 G on 21
    1.71 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 3
    0.45 xG
    1 G on 6
    0.74 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: CAR went 2-for-27, NSH 1-for-26.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    P. Kochetkov
    CAR · 25/26 · .962
    +1.9
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/30.6-0.4
    Medium0/131.6+1.6
    Low0/390.7+0.7

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Saros
    NSH · 33/36 · .917
    +1.9
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/62.1+1.1
    Medium3/162.0-1.0
    Low0/480.8+0.8

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    95 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    CAR
    54 shots
    4
    Final
    95 shots
    NSH
    41 shots
    1
    CAR attackNSH attack
    CAR NSH Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — CAR left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    S. Aho
    #20 · C · CAR
    2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 20:20 on ice · +1
    A. Svechnikov
    #37 · R · CAR
    0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 17:31 on ice
    J. Blake
    #53 · R · CAR
    1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 16:28 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Wed, Dec 17
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:47 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find: the model projects a 54% win probability for Carolina, translating to a 2.8–2.5 expected final. When a game's this tight, small edges compound.

    Carolina owns the underlying play. The Hurricanes' expected goals sit at 56.0% to Nashville's 49.0% at 5v5, and they drive possession at 60.0% Corsi—expect territorial control to favor the visitors. But here's the catch: Carolina's PDO is 0.984, meaning their shot outcomes are running well below historical average. That's either bad luck or regression waiting to happen.

    The Hurricanes carry a rest advantage—three days off to Nashville's one. J. Saros comes in on a back-to-back; watch whether Nashville starts a backup or asks a fatigued starter to carry the load.

    Players to Watch

    CAR

    • Jackson Blake: 1.06 xG/60, 14G 19A, 2 HD goals, 10.9% shooting
    • Seth Jarvis: 0.98 xG/60, 17G 12A, 1 HD goals, 11.9% shooting

    NSH

    • Zachary L'Heureux: 0.85 xG/60, 4G 0A, 1 HD goals, 16.0% shooting
    • Filip Forsberg: 0.80 xG/60, 23G 17A, 4 HD goals, 13.6% shooting
    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    CAR 54%
    54%
    CAR
    Model favorite
    54%
    46%
    CAR50NSH

    CAR by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CAR 2.8–2.5 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CAR← edge
    edge →NSH
    56.0%49.0%
    60.0%50.0%
    2.982.48
    2.312.58
    2.261.84
    1.952.21
    0.9840.992

    CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.984 vs 0.992) says NSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    CAR
    7-3-0
    +5 GD · 3d rest
    NSH
    7-3-0
    +10 GD · 1d rest
    0.984
    CAR PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.992
    NSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    • The Hurricanes have 2 more days of rest.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    CAR
    Expected in goal
    B. Bussi
    3 days rest.923 last start
    Backup Brandon Bussi · +2.8 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NSH
    Expected in goal
    J. Saros
    back-to-back.909 last start
    Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CAR
    Jackson Blake14G 19A
    1.06 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.9% sh
    Seth Jarvis17G 12A
    0.98 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.9% sh
    NSH
    Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
    0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
    Filip Forsberg23G 17A
    0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page