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Breakdown · NJD at VGK

J. Allen stands tall as the Devils edge the Golden Knights

Final / OTWed, Dec 17
NJDNew Jersey Devils2VGKVegas Golden Knights1
The verdict · stolen

The Devils stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.41–5.22 and won anyway.

NJD 2 · VGK 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:50 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Golden Knights had 11 high-danger chances to the Devils' 7. Both teams went scoreless. That's not a failure of execution; that's a shootout begging to happen. J. Allen made sure his team reached it.

The underlying numbers favored Vegas across the board. The Golden Knights held 53% of shot attempts (37–33) and 5.22 expected goals to 4.41 (54–46). They were the better team on the metrics that matter. But metrics don't always decide hockey games. Vegas couldn't convert on 11 high-danger chances. The Devils went 0-for-7. Two teams unable to capitalize despite abundant opportunity. Allen finished regulation with 36 saves on 37 shots, 0.973 SV%, and +4.22 against expected performance. That margin decided everything before overtime.

C. Hart's goaltending was not the problem. He stopped 32 of 33 (0.970 SV%, +3.41 versus expected)—elite by any measure. He simply couldn't outsave the goalie across the ice. Allen's command of high-danger situations proved the only difference that mattered.

Vegas's inability to convert on prime chances wasn't misfortune. The Devils' survival wasn't resilience. It was Allen. A 100% save percentage on 11 high-danger shots kept New Jersey alive when nothing else could.

Jesper Bratt ended it. His backhander from the slot in the shootout was the moment the underlying metrics finally surrendered to the scoreboard.

Three Stars

  • #61 M. Stone (VGK) — 1A in 23:38
  • #16 P. Dorofeyev (VGK) — 1G in 22:38
  • #16 C. Brown (NJD) — 1G in 20:32
The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Dec 17
NJD
2
VGK
1

J. Allen stands tall as the Devils edge the Golden Knights

Chances 4.4 – 5.2Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
NJD
4.41
VGK
5.22
46% of the chances54%

The board read NJD 2, VGK 1. The chances read NJD 4.4, VGK 5.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
−2.4
goals above expected
NJD4.41 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK5.22 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Golden Knights left 4.2 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 04:50NJDC. Brown1–0
  2. P3 15:49VGKP. DorofeyevPP1–1
  3. SO 00:00NJDJ. BrattPP1–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NJD
50 shots
2
Final
108 shots
VGK
58 shots
1
NJD attackVGK attack
NJD VGK Goal
50
shots · 2 in
58
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NJDVGK
0 / 7
1.52 xG
High danger
0 / 11
2.43 xG
1 / 20
2.26 xG
Medium
1 / 20
2.22 xG
0 / 41
0.63 xG
Low
0 / 36
0.56 xG

The Golden Knights went 0 for 11 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Allen
+4.2
NJD · 36/37
A+
C. Hart
+3.4
VGK · 32/33
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

J. Allen stands tall as the Devils edge the Golden Knights

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–10no goals
    2ndshots 12–15
    1. 04:50NJDC. Brown1–0
    3rdshots 11–9
    1. 15:49VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Stone, T. Hertl)1–1
    OTshots 2–3no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00NJDJ. Brattpower play1–1

      score reads NJD–VGK

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      4.41
      NJD chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −2.4
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      1.000
      NJD puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      50.4%
      Shot attempts
      Over half — they had the puck more
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      4.41Expected goals5.22
      VGK 54% of the chance quality
      33Shots on goal37
      7High-danger chances11
      68All attempts (Corsi)67
      Adjusted for score: NJD 48% · VGK 52%
      Faceoffs · VGK won41%off18%neu56%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      NJD0 / 7 · 1.52 xG
      VGK0 / 11 · 2.43 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      NJD1 / 20 · 2.26 xG
      VGK1 / 20 · 2.22 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      NJD0 / 41 · 0.63 xG
      VGK0 / 36 · 0.56 xG

      VGK went 0-for-11 from high danger on 2.43 expected goals — 2.4 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      NJD
      2 G · 4.41 xG · -2.4
      VGK
      1 G · 5.22 xG · -4.2
      0123456

      NJD finished -2.4 against expected, VGK -4.2.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      NJD
      WRIST1/28
      SNAP0/8
      TIP IN0/5
      BACKHAND0/1
      SLAP0/3
      DEFLECTED0/2
      OTHER0/21
      VGK
      WRIST0/28
      SNAP1/6
      TIP IN0/8
      BACKHAND0/10
      SLAP0/3
      DEFLECTED0/0
      OTHER0/12
      NJD
      VGK
      Off the rush
      1 G on 31
      3.30 xG
      1 G on 30
      3.47 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 4
      0.35 xG
      0 G on 8
      1.10 xG

      Wrist shots carried the volume: NJD went 1-for-28, VGK 0-for-28.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Allen
      NJD · 36/37 · .973
      +4.2
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/112.4+2.4
      Medium1/202.2+1.2
      Low0/360.6+0.6

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      C. Hart
      VGK · 32/33 · .970
      +3.4
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/71.5+1.5
      Medium1/202.3+1.3
      Low0/410.6+0.6

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      108 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      NJD
      50 shots
      2
      Final
      108 shots
      VGK
      58 shots
      1
      NJD attackVGK attack
      NJD VGK Goal

      Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      M. Stone
      #61 · R · VGK
      0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 23:38 on ice
      P. Dorofeyev
      #16 · R · VGK
      1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 22:38 on ice · -1
      C. Brown
      #16 · R · NJD
      1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 20:32 on ice · +1
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Wed, Dec 17
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:47 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The model projects a 2.3–2.6 goal margin favoring Vegas, with the Golden Knights at 56% win probability.

      Vegas enters with momentum; they've gone 6-2-2 over their last 10 games. New Jersey has cratered to -9 goal differential in the same span. But the underlying metrics matter more. At 5v5, the Golden Knights generate 54.0% expected goals to New Jersey's 50.0%, with a comparable edge in shot share (52.0% Corsi% versus 51.0%). That gap should stick.

      Both teams are running cold on PDO—Vegas at 0.983, New Jersey at 0.971—which makes both due for positive regression on finish. New Jersey's luck deficit is larger, but it arrives too late to swing this game.

      For New Jersey, Timo Meier (1.08 xG/60, 13 goals, 15 assists, 3 high-danger chances, 6.7% shooting) remains the most dangerous creator; Jack Hughes (0.88 xG/60, 18 goals, 17 assists, 1 high-danger chance, 11.5% shooting) has been more clinical. Defensively, Johnathan Kovacevic is the weak link.

      Vegas counters with Brandon Saad (0.91 xG/60, 3 goals, 6 assists, 1 high-danger chance, 4.1% shooting) and Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5 goals, 17 assists, 1 high-danger chance, 4.3% shooting). Saad's goal total lags his chance creation; Hertl's assists have been prolific despite modest goal output. Rasmus Andersson is the defensive vulnerability.

      Vegas wins this game because it creates better chances and is overdue for positive regression on conversion. New Jersey's luck is reversing—just not in time.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      VGK 56%
      56%
      VGK
      Model favorite
      44%
      56%
      NJD50VGK

      VGK by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NJD 2.3–2.6 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      NJD← edge
      edge →VGK
      50.0%54.0%
      51.0%52.0%
      2.452.52
      2.502.11
      1.662.12
      2.232.10
      0.9710.983

      VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 0.983) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      NJD
      3-7-0
      -9 GD · 3d rest
      VGK
      6-2-2
      -1 GD · 3d rest
      0.971
      NJD PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      0.983
      VGK PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Where the edges live
      • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
      Regression watch
      • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
      • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
      Things to watch
      • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
      • The Golden Knights are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-2 in their last 10).
      • The Devils are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
      • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      NJD
      Expected in goal
      J. Markstrom
      3 days rest.867 last start
      Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      VGK
      Expected in goal
      C. Hart
      3 days rest.933 last start
      Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      NJD
      Timo Meier13G 15A
      1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
      Jack Hughes18G 17A
      0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
      VGK
      Brandon Saad3G 6A
      0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
      Tomas Hertl5G 17A
      0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page