The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Bruins held 51% of shot attempts and lost 3-1 anyway. Edmonton controlled 61% of expected goals (3.79–2.39) and generated shots worth roughly double Boston's per attempt (0.082 vs 0.041). The Bruins had the volume; Edmonton had everything else.
High-danger chances confirmed it: Edmonton 6, Boston 2. Connor McDavid's backhander from the doorstep (P3, 01:41) exemplified the gap—a look that decided the game.
Both teams crashed the net effectively for rebounds. Boston created three opportunities (zero converted); Edmonton created six (one converted). But Edmonton's looks were dangerous enough that moderate efficiency decided the margin. On the rush, Edmonton was lethal: 2 goals on 20 chances.
The underlying metrics split cleanly. Edmonton underperformed their expected goals by 0.79, Boston by 1.39. C. Pickard stopped all 13 for Edmonton and outperformed expected by 1.19. T. Jarry went 12-for-13 in relief. J. Swayman performed above expected for Boston (0.880 SV%, +0.79), but facing lower-quality chances meant his performance mattered less than the gap his teammates faced.
