The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Avalanche edged the Jets 3–2, but the underlying numbers would have predicted a wider margin: Colorado controlled 67% of 5v5 expected goals (4.14–2.06), a gap that should have yielded a two-goal win instead of one. Colorado underperformed its xG by 1.14 goals, narrowing what the underlying picture suggested.
That dominance came through shot quality, not volume. Colorado held 54% of shot attempts but generated far superior chances—0.071 expected goals per attempt versus Winnipeg's 0.043. The high-danger chance count reflected the gap: 7–5 in Colorado's favor.
Winnipeg's clinical efficiency made the loss sting. The Jets converted 2 of 5 high-danger chances—40% in the danger zone. That conversion rate masked a deeper problem: Winnipeg generated inferior scoring chances across the board and still fell short.
Mark Scheifele's snap shot from the doorstep (third period, 3:38) briefly suggested a Winnipeg comeback. By the underlying metrics, Colorado's dominance was never seriously in doubt.
Goaltending. S. Wedgewood (COL): 20/22 saves, 0.909 SV%. C. Hellebuyck (WPG): 23/26 saves, 0.885 SV% (+1.14 vs expected).
Three Stars. 1) #42 J. Manson (COL) — 2A in 15:35. 2) #29 N. MacKinnon (COL) — 1A in 24:21. 3) #55 M. Scheifele (WPG) — 1G in 23:19.