Motion-blurred skater in a Minnesota Wild sweater

Breakdown · EDM at MIN

Wild pull away from the Oilers

FinalSat, Dec 20

The verdict · earned

The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

EDM 2 · MIN 5

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:08 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Wild's 5–2 victory came with a clear verdict from the underlying play: they controlled 59% of 5v5 expected goals (5.86–4.04) and compiled 10 high-danger chances to Edmonton's 5. The Oilers landed a comparable fraction of their shot attempts but generated lower-quality looks—0.059 expected goals per shot versus Minnesota's 0.113.

Minnesota's efficiency from the rush proved decisive. The Wild scored 4 goals on 30 rush attempts. Both teams crashed the net with similar preparation: Minnesota generated 6 rebound opportunities (1 converted), Edmonton 5 (1 converted). The higher volume of prime looks favored the visitors.

Goaltending revealed the margin of variance. F. Gustavsson (MIN) stopped 28 of 30 (0.933 SV%, +2.04 vs expected), operating in a game already decided. C. Pickard (EDM) made 32 of 36 saves (0.889 SV%, +1.86 vs expected), salvaging what he could while Edmonton squandered 2.04 goals worth of expected opportunities. Nico Sturm's wrist shot from the slot (third period, 18:35) registered as the turning point in an increasingly one-directional contest.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 20

EDM

MIN

Wild pull away from the Oilers

Chances 4.0 – 5.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Wild earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

EDM

4.04

MIN

5.86

41% of the chances59%

The board read EDM 2, MIN 5. The chances read EDM 4.0, MIN 5.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

MIN

−0.9

goals above expected

MIN5.86 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

EDM4.04 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Oilers left 2.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 03:42MINM. Boldy0–1
P1 10:56MINM. BoldyPP0–2
P1 13:35EDMA. Mangiapane1–2
P1 18:44EDMC. McDavidPP2–2
P1 19:52MINR. Hartman2–3
P3 09:08MINV. Tarasenko2–4
P3 18:35MINN. SturmEN2–5

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

EDM

43 shots

Final

89 shots

MIN

46 shots

EDM MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

EDMMIN

1 / 5

1.37 xG

High danger

2 / 10

3.51 xG

1 / 20

2.12 xG

Medium

3 / 17

1.81 xG

0 / 43

0.55 xG

Low

0 / 25

0.54 xG

The Wild buried 2 of 10 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

F. Gustavsson

+2.0

MIN · 28/30

C. Pickard

+1.9

EDM · 32/36

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Wild pull away from the Oilers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 14–16

03:42MINM. Boldy0–1
10:56MINM. Boldypower play(Q. Hughes, M. Zuccarello)0–2
13:35EDMA. Mangiapane(E. Bouchard, L. Draisaitl)1–2
18:44EDMC. McDavidpower play(L. Draisaitl, Z. Hyman)2–2
19:52MINR. Hartman(J. Middleton, M. Zuccarello)2–3

2ndshots 6–10no goals

3rdshots 10–11

09:08MINV. Tarasenko(Y. Trenin)2–4
18:35MINN. Sturmempty net(V. Tarasenko, M. Johansson)2–5

score reads EDM–MIN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

5.86

MIN chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.9

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.067

MIN puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

43.3%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.04Expected goals5.86

MIN 59% of the chance quality

30Shots on goal37

5High-danger chances10

68All attempts (Corsi)52

Adjusted for score: EDM 61% · MIN 39%

Faceoffs · MIN won31%off50%neu64%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

EDM1 / 5 · 1.37 xG

MIN2 / 10 · 3.51 xG

Medium dangermid-range

EDM1 / 20 · 2.12 xG

MIN3 / 17 · 1.81 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

EDM0 / 43 · 0.55 xG

MIN0 / 25 · 0.54 xG

MIN went 2-for-10 from high danger on 3.51 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

EDM

2 G · 4.04 xG · -2.0

MIN

5 G · 5.86 xG · -0.9

01234567

EDM finished -2.0 against expected, MIN -0.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

EDM

WRIST1/23

BACKHAND0/6

TIP IN1/5

SNAP0/4

SLAP0/3

DEFLECTED0/2

BETWEEN LEGS0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/25

MIN

WRIST1/23

BACKHAND2/9

TIP IN1/4

SNAP0/5

SLAP1/3

DEFLECTED0/0

BETWEEN LEGS0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/6

EDM

MIN

Off the rush

0 G on 32

2.73 xG

4 G on 30

3.75 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 5

1.04 xG

1 G on 6

1.50 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: EDM went 1-for-23, MIN 1-for-23. MIN scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Pickard

EDM · 32/36 · .889

+1.9

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/103.5+1.5

Medium3/171.8-1.2

Low0/250.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

F. Gustavsson

MIN · 28/30 · .933

+2.0

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.4+0.4

Medium1/202.1+1.1

Low0/430.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

EDM

43 shots

Final

89 shots

MIN

46 shots

EDM MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — EDM left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

L. Draisaitl

#29 · C · EDM

0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 22:07 on ice · -2

M. Boldy

#12 · L · MIN

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 20:57 on ice

M. Zuccarello

#36 · R · MIN

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 15:36 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Dec 20

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:06 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects EDM 2.5–2.6 MIN with the Wild at 52% win probability—as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The underlying metrics explain why.

Even at 5v5: both teams own 52.0% xG%, meaning Edmonton and Minnesota generate identical shot quality. Edmonton leads Corsi 50.0% to 48.0%, a small edge in possession that hasn't translated into a decisive advantage. These are two evenly matched teams playing tight hockey.

The PDO tells a different story about fortune. Edmonton sits at 0.982, a sign of cold variance—their shooting percentage and save rate have underperformed. Minnesota's PDO is 1.007, meaning they're running slightly hot. Over time, Edmonton should regress upward; Minnesota may regress down. In a coin flip, variance cuts both ways.

Both goalies face back-to-back situations. Watch whether J. Wallstedt or T. Jarry see backup starts or enter tired. Fatigue typically shows in the second and third periods.

The star power skews Edmonton's way. Zach Hyman carries 1.23 xG/60 on 14G 13A, shooting 13.0%—elite volume and efficiency. Connor McDavid's 0.92 xG/60 on 25G 33A at 13.7% shooting represents pure dominance. Minnesota's Matt Boldy carries 0.89 xG/60 on 22G 18A with 5 high-danger goals and 13.7% shooting—strong, but generates slightly less volume than Hyman. Robby Fabbri, expected to anchor Minnesota's second line, is marked inactive, which weakens the Wild's secondary scoring and tilts the matchup calculation.

The defensive weak link for Edmonton is Jake Walman. For Minnesota, it's Matt Kiersted. The key is whether Minnesota can sustain play without Fabbri and whether Edmonton can convert possession into dangerous chances. The model says neither team has a clear path to separation.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 52%

52%

MIN

Model favorite

48%

52%

EDM50MIN

MIN by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score EDM 2.5–2.6 MIN; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

EDM← edge

edge →MIN

52.0%52.0%

50.0%48.0%

2.642.55

2.472.40

2.132.04

2.291.93

0.9821.007

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.982 vs 1.007) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

EDM

7-2-1

+18 GD · 1d rest

MIN

7-2-1

+14 GD · 1d rest

0.982

EDM PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.007

MIN PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

J. Wallstedt is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
T. Jarry is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

EDM

Expected in goal

T. Jarry

back-to-back.923 last start

Backup Connor Ingram · +1.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MIN

Expected in goal

J. Wallstedt

back-to-back.931 last start

Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

EDM

Zach Hyman14G 13A

1.23 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.0% sh

Connor McDavid25G 33A

0.92 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

MIN

Matt Boldy22G 18A

0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Robby Fabbri2G 3A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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