The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Ottawa's dominance was starker than the 6-4 scoreline suggests. The Senators controlled 74% of expected goals (6.47–2.23), and their shot-attempt edge — 40–24 — tells the fuller story. Yet Chicago stayed within two goals by overperforming their xG by 1.77 — a reminder that elite finishing can mask a lopsided performance.
The Senators generated 13 high-danger chances to Chicago's 3, a gap that reflects their relentless offensive pressure. Ottawa was efficient with their advantages, converting 6 goals from 43 rush chances. Chicago, meanwhile, found 4 goals on 18 rush attempts — a far higher conversion rate that underscores their selective but lethal execution.
Fabian Zetterlund's wrist shot from the high slot in the third period was the turning point, a moment where Ottawa's volume finally broke through Chicago's stiff resistance.
Goaltending told the story of variance. A. Soderblom made 34 saves at 0.850 SV%, facing constant siege. L. Meriläinen (0.833 SV%) allowed 1.77 more goals than expected. The workload was lighter, yet the damage heavier — a measure of how lethal Chicago's chances were.
The game was open by design: 16 high-danger chances combined. Ottawa generated them at a higher rate (0.080 xG per shot vs 0.053), turning volume into quality. Chicago's path to relevance was precision, not possession — and they executed it until they couldn't.