The Ducks edged the Blue Jackets despite being outgunned on high-danger chances — 3 to 5. That's a dangerous deficit, but Anaheim's precision where it mattered most won out.

The Ducks held 52% of shot attempts (28–26 on goal) and led in expected goals 3.90–3.30 — a 54–46 split reflecting territorial advantage. The decisive edge: Anaheim generated 0.064 expected goals per shot attempt versus Columbus's 0.048. When your volume is similar but your efficiency is higher, the scoreboard catches up.

Columbus stayed close by thriving in low-danger opportunities. The Blue Jackets scored 2 goals from spots that typically generate minimal expected value — the kind of mistakes that can bury a team. But Anaheim was more lethal in transition: 2 goals on 35 rush chances to Columbus's 3 on 27. Columbus had a better rush conversion rate, yet Anaheim's overall execution on high-danger plays proved decisive.

Goaltending split the difference. E. Merzlikins (CBJ) recorded a 0.857 save percentage (24/28), while L. Dostal (ANA) posted 0.885 (23/26) — a marginal gap that favored the winner.

The model projects a 2.6-2.7 goal game with the Ducks at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find—the underlying metrics split almost perfectly.

Both teams own identical 52.0% expected goals share at 5v5. The Ducks hold a slight edge in Corsi (52.0% vs. 51.0%), a gap so thin it's noise. What separates them is luck. Columbus is running a 1.003 PDO; Anaheim sits at 0.981. The Ducks are due for positive regression—they've banked fewer goals than their shot quality suggests they should. That's the kind of thing that flips close games.

For Columbus, Boone Jenner anchors the attack at 0.98 xG/60, with 11 goals, 21 assists, and 2 high-danger goals on a 9.6% shooting rate. Mathieu Olivier runs cooler at 0.89 xG/60 but has 12 goals to show for it, including 1 high-danger goal, driven by his 13.3% shooting rate. Both carry offensive weight the Ducks can't ignore.

Anaheim counters with Beckett Sennecke, whose 1.03 xG/60 and 8 high-danger goals make him the most dangerous player on the ice. His 20 goals, 19 assists, and 13.5% shooting rate reflect volume and finish alike. Cutter Gauthier matches that intensity: 0.99 xG/60, 25 goals, 2 high-danger goals, and a ruthless 12.9% shooting rate. Two elite attacking prospects will challenge a Columbus team with its own offensive depth.

The defensive weak link for Columbus is Conor Garland; for Anaheim, Mason McTavish. Both teams show 0% high-danger goal rates and 0% rebound conversion, which suggests either elite goaltending or volatile sample sizes. In a game this close, luck could be the difference.

A genuine coin flip.