The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Senators won 6-2, but expected goals suggested a tighter contest: xG split 3.68–3.24 in Ottawa's favor. The Bruins held 42% of shot attempts and tied the Senators at 6 high-danger chances. The 4-goal final margin significantly exceeded the underlying metrics.
The overperformance was stark. Ottawa outperformed its xG by 2.32 goals while Boston underperformed by 1.24. Goaltending explained the variance. J. Korpisalo posted a 0.706 save percentage and allowed 2.8 goals more than expected; L. Ullmark saved 1.2 above expected at 0.900. J. Swayman, Boston's starter, actually excelled — he saved 2.7 above expected and posted a 0.909 mark — but his strong outing was drowned out by his team's deficit.
F. Zetterlund's slap shot from the high slot in the second period marked the turning point. He recorded 2G and 1A in 17:12. D. Batherson posted 1G and 2A in 16:11, while D. Cozens contributed 1G and 2A in 15:40.
Ottawa's special teams converted efficiently. The power play scored 2 goals on 7 shots, well above the 0.32 expected goals mark. Both teams were lethal on the rush — Ottawa buried 3 goals on 24 chances, Boston 2 on 25 — but neither team converted rebound opportunities, with Boston creating four (zero goals) and Ottawa five (zero goals). Ottawa's proficiency at low-danger scoring combined with Korpisalo's weak evening in net transformed a close metrics matchup into a convincing victory.